14.
03.15
12:38

Positive short term prognosis for EU pork market by 2015 and 2016

Commission: short-term Preview on the Schweinefleisch market by 2015 and 2016

In the recent short-term preview of key EU agricultural markets, the Commission predicts a slightly growing market of pork for the years 2015 and 2016.

The production should grow in 2015 by 1.3%, but following in 2016 at most 0.3 per cent increase. The projections from the livestock census results and trend value calculations form the basis for this assessment. The fact that in the new 13 Central and Eastern European States the growth significantly higher to fail than in the old 15 Member countries is surprising. The new EU members had regularly strong acceptance rates in the past few years.

The development of consumption moves only slightly. After a slight increase, consumption should go back again slightly in the year 2016 the per capita consumption is estimated at just under 32 kg and thus falls under the outturn for the year 2011.

The EU import figures of pig meat are with 0.07% (!)  measured in the EU domestic consumption negligible.

Following the decline of pork exports in the year 2014 as a result of the Russian import ban by almost 13% over the previous year, % are projected for 2015 and 2016 increases at + 5% and + 6. The absolute export levels on carcass weight basis calculated rise to 2.1 million tonnes (2016), remain but still behind the values of the year 2013, with 2.2 million tonnes.

Are the recent Euro course development is not incorporatedin the estimates. Therefore, it can be assumed that the export figures can be higher something, if the exchange rates should follow for a long time at the current level. The sales potential in the Asian region is very promising.

The future behavior of Russia in terms of pork importsmakes for uncertainty. Even with the lifting of the import lock to the announced date of 8 August 2015, still keep problem with the African swine fever that has spread almost everywhere in the Baltic States. There could be a partial loosening of locking for unloaded production regions such as France, Denmark, Netherlands.

Much more serious for any pork imports the weaker Russian incomes and the purchasing power of the ruble almost halved will affect. A return to old import volumes in the region of 750,000 t is hardly conceivable.

Last but not least is the question of political will. The objective to reach a higher degree of Russian self-sufficiency will rather undermined through border ports and the investment efforts in the country in question.

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