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Price forecasts for the first half of 2015

Gloomy forecasts for pork prices in the first half of the year 2015

The European Commission gave a preview to the further development of the pig prices in its recent opinion on the current developments on the pork market. The forecast is based on the evaluations of the livestock census results from May to July in the vast majority of the EU member countries.

For the rest of the year 2014 should pork prices in the fourth quarter for the class S are approximately €1.46 per kg and estimated for the class E are the courses to approximately €1.41 / kg . Falling prices in the fourth quarter of the year are season-typically, the low level is unusual. The low price level is clearly attributable to the Russian import lock, which caused considerable difficulties at a EU self-sufficiency rate of 110%. Adequate alternative channels of distribution in the internal and third-country markets are hard to find;  the possibilities not sufficient to accommodate the locked volume costs the same.

For the first quarter of the new year of 2015 , the amount of pork to rise slightly. But the season's usual demand - especially the business after the Christmas - is weak at this time. This leads to an expected price pressure. The Commission estimates that pork prices of class E could fall in the months to March to 1.38 per kg on average Jan.

For the II quarter 2015 income unchanged battle is expected. At the same time will be in the months of April, may and June to be expected with an increase in demand due to the barbecue season be. This Grill articles are included already in the run-up to Creative Commons, because normally the grill consumption from ongoing slaughter can be operated not sufficiently. Accordingly, prices at this stage to rise €1.46 per kg pork prices.

The sales history in the barbecue but is highly dependent on the weather. Expiring in 2014, the barbecue activities deployed quite early on already mid-April. The month of May was less sales-intensive due to the frequent rainfall. This June was all the more friendly.  Pork sales for II quarter is therefore very uncertain to estimate, so that is also the price forecast with many risks .

Newer information can expect the traditional cattle counts by early November 2014 . Their evaluations are in the Jan-2015 at the earliest be known. In the meantime, individual evaluations could provide but already early hints.

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