Review and preview of Schweinefleisch market 2017 (for EU, China and the United States add. > 80% of world production)
The EU pigmeat market began the year 2016 with catastrophic prices under 1.30 €/ kg as a result of the import stop of Russia, weak Internal market demand, but high domestic production when compared to the same period last year.
In the 2nd quarter started a boom-like export toward China unabated lasted until in the summer of 2016. Simultaneous seasonally decreasing pork production and a moderately strong barbecue season pork prices rose approximately €1.70 / kg within few weeks or months on the height.
With the month of August decreased the monthly export by around 20% compared to the previous months and since then for the time being stopped at a reduced level. The low numbers of the battle resulted in the 3rd quarter, that despite previous back exports prices on average 1.66priced €/ kg for weeks.
With the transition to the 4th quarter of 2016 the battle figures rose significantly seasonal. The accumulating amounts of battle overextended the demand from home and abroad. Prices eased up on the line of €1,52 / kg for several weeks. A temporary revival of the courses about €1.60 / kg, but only partially brought the preparations for Christmas once againhas been supported in the North-Western EU countries. Spain and France stayed for weeks at unchanged prices.
Collective wrongdoing by panic early Market feeding on the producer side led to the price slump just before soft nights. That was not necessary in light of many days of battle between the holidays this year!
The prospects for the beginning of the new year 2017 2016 are considerably cheaper than at the beginning of the year. Due to the recent and foreseeable development is to assume hardly increasing numbers of battle. At the same time the pork export less than at previous level should remain, with some weakness in Jan. and Feb. cannot be ruled out. Extreme price dips as in the first quarter of 2016 are to justify not from today's level of knowledge.
According to recent estimates, the EU pork production should in the further course of the year 2017 at a similar level as in the previous year. The exports should be only slightly lower. The usual seasonal fluctuations are expected in individual seasons.
Under these circumstances, it seems logical that the 2017 pig prices annual average something can be higher than the expiring year. But the pork market is due to its sensitivity as fresh meat marketgood for surprises.
China's pork production 2016 still declining - import demand 2017 remains high
Contrary to many forecasts that the Chinese pork production will recover after the setback in the preceding years in the year 2016, is now to determine that the production with estimated 52 million t rd. 9% below the prior-year results is.
Despite of all efforts within the framework of the 5 of year plan until 2020 is to bring the production to a level of demand-covering 67 million tonnes, to determine the investment in new production facilities small turned out, than the Task of existing capacities . The reduction of the existing pig attitudes concerns mainly the small and medium-sized family farms, which are always a source of danger for the outbreaks and little efficient economies. So the PEDv-has been in the year 2016 epidemic cause of mass extinction of piglets often. Tens of thousands of pigs killed were all misfortune by floods in South China.
The new production capacities to are built on the industry-like scale, work more efficiently, comply with a higher standard of quality and above all meet the high environmental standards especially in the manure.
Old systems in population-intensive regions be shut or settled out . Looking for new production facilities in less intensively inhabited regions. Given the tight space equipment in China it is difficult however to find suitable locations. Modern companies are working in the system of farming through provision of animal feed, slaughter, processing and marketing. Yet are still 45% of the animals in units per year to to 500 pigs in family farms produced.
