29.
01.15
10:38

Rabobank is turbulent pig year 2015

Rabobank: 2015 will be a turbulent year for the pig

In its first quarterly report by 2015 the Rabobank turns out the opinion factors of influence on pigmeat production in 2015:- like the PEDv epidemic in North America, Asia and possibly also in Europe (first finds in the Ukraine) evolved?

-What are the implications of the spread of African swine fever in Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Baltic States, Poland and neighbouring countries?

- Like the Russian import ban politically will be handled in the future?

-What developments are at the exchange rates ($, €, among others) to expect with regard to the export sector?

In the year 2014, North America as a result of PEDv epidemic one of the biggest setbacks in production has combined with record high prices and experienced gains in the pig. In Europe, the Russian import ban caused an oversupply of pork, which until recently on a ruinous level drove down prices in the second half of the year. And in China, the increase in pork production was set back considerably due to high feed and low pork prices with the consequence of high losses.

So far only weak signs of a repeat of PEDv epidemic on the scale of last year's emerging at the beginning of the year 2015. Although a week new cases are reported, but the spread remains at a lower level. However, the risk due to the not yet subdued cold season is not over yet.

Cyclical price-related than average rising U.S. herds if persistently high slaughter weight could result in the years 2015 to a high range of pork .  If the dollar remains strong, the export will be more difficult. That could bring the U.S. pork price strong price pressure. The quotes are currently at €1.37 / kg, but in considerable extent by the fluctuating exchange rates back and pushed. The forward rates for the BBQ season 2015 but upwards.

In Europe, the ongoing Russian import ban prevents a significant price increases. However, you should not underestimate the positive export support effects of the weak euro . In the first half of the battle figures will be rather lower, so that attractive rates are expected in the stock build-up phase for the BBQ season . A partial opening of the Russian market is indeed uncertain, could but a more price-supporting effect.

The increased stocks of sows in China lead to a relative scarcity of fattening pigs and the volume of pork in the first half of 2015, so that the pork prices in China in the upper midfield should move. The Chinese pig rock ICH imports to rise by 17%.

Brazil's dreams of a strong export activity in the direction of Russia are determined by the Russian weakness of purchasing power significantly reduced. Also significant export losses in the Ukraine and other States have not to exceed the total pork export in Brazil, but has become even slightly declining.

How the individual factors in the course of the year still are present, is highly uncertain. Therefore, the assessment one turbulent year 2015 by the hand is to have.

Rückrufservice
Please describe your request so that we can prepare for the callback.
Yes, I have read the Privacy Policy note and I consent that the data provided by me, including the contact data, for the processing of the inquiry and in case of questions are electronically collected and stored. My data will only be used strictly for my request and will not be passed without my consent. This consent can be revoked any time with effect for the future.'
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether or not you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.

Register now

Jetzt registrieren und ZMP Live+ 14 Tage kostenlos testen!
  • Dauerhaft kostenfrei
  • Keine Zahlungsinformationen erforderlich