Commission estimates small growth in pork until 2015 on the supply and demand sides
In its latest short term prognosis the European Commission predicts 2014 or 2015 a lightweight back surge of EU pork production for years.
The past few years 2012 and 2013 were marked by the changeover of the sow housing with reduced volume of piglets, high feed costs and accordingly lower profitability of production. The production fell to 2%.
The in force since early 2014 Russian import lock for EU pork has resulted in a reduction of exports to 80%. However a part of missing exports could be intercepted somewhat after Russia by deliveries in other importing countries in the Asian region. Sales domestically, including falters due to weather influences of insufficient third-country export is noticeable immediately in falling prices.
For the rest of the year 2014, the Commission anticipates a growth of + 0.2%. The growth in production in the Netherlands and Denmark contribute substantially. A further stabilization in other countries such as Germany and Spain is expected for the year 2015.
So far declining domestic demand will move again in the current and coming year upward. It has similar expectations of export, where the Russian import behavior remains uncertain and may not again will return to the original level. Tight international supplies of pork as a result of PEDv-related losses in the United States but encourages fantasies, but for the European export limited possibilities due to the competitive situation.
For strong price drops, there is currently little evidence. The orientation for the foreseeable future tends to price developments in good average level at a high potential of variation as a result of unsafe exports of Russia.
Hopefully, the African swine fever and the Plague of PEDv is not yet a bold stroke by the Bill.
