Russian pork imports remain foreseeable at the lowest level
Up to the year 2013 , Russia increased its pork imports on an annual total of rd. 870,000 t or about 215 000 t per quarter. The EU average of 175,000 tonnes per quarter year had the largest share of it.
The United States were due to non-approved growth largely from the Russian import list deleted has been. In addition, the emerging PEDv epidemic in the United States suppressed exports towards Russia.
Canada and Brazil amounts of pork of a magnitude between 30,000 and 40,000 tons per quarter year delivered to any significant extent.
The Russian import ban in Feb. 2014 due to the African swine fever cases in Poland EU exports to Russia slipped already after the 1st quarter 2014 on the zero point. As a replacement were increased imports from Canada, Brazil, and begin the United States. However, these import volumes reached far not the failure of the EU. The ratio was about the 15 times.
With the extension of the import lock early August 2014 in response to Western economic sanctions in terms of conflict in Ukraine also ran North American imports on the zero point.
The Russian hopes on increased shipments from Brazil were however disappointed. The increased demand has resulted in a strong increase in pork prices of original € 1.40 / kg to €2 per kg in the South American country of export. These were the high transport costs. The fall of the Russian ruble by around 70%, which made imports prohibitively expensive was the last.
The missing pork imports have resulted in a 25% decline in consumption . At the same time, the Russian consumer prices by around 15% have risen. The State monitors the price development with relevant activities.
For the foreseeable future, it is to be expected with a fall in incomes in Russia. In addition to the rise in prices of pork consumption on the lower level of domestic production will drop off. Russian self-sufficiency in pork is inevitably increased by almost 70% to 95%.
Hope on rising Russian imports are as long as low level, as the purchasing power of the ruble is not significantly larger. The current ratio of 80 rubles for a euro allows no affordable imports even if the Russian border should be opened again. Even a rate of 50 rubles to 1 euro leads back to old import figures.
