05.
04.16
14:58

U.S. hog prices 25% below average

Pork prices in the United States under multi-annual averages

Measured in the years from 2010 to 2014, the current national base levels by about 25% lowerare on the average U.S. hog prices.  Background is the strong increase in production PEDv epidemic in the United States in winter 2013/14 cost about 15% of piglets. The strong inventory build-up is receding slowly, but the high level of production has remained.

On the demand side , a strong increase of in domestic consumption could be observed, which is caused by the disproportionately higher beef prices essentially.  Exports, however, suffers from the strong dollar rate, which a low competitiveness given the U.S. export economy. The increasing loss of sales potential in China/Hong Kong is painful.  

Pork prices in the United States are also in the further course of the year 2016 under pressure . The exception is the Barbecue season temporarily during the summer months. On the one hand the daily increases in the pigs be weaker during the warmer season, and on the other the meat market is soaring in the barbecue season. Price expectations are for the summer just below €1.60 / kg, taking into account the conversion by fluctuating exchange rates.

Starting with the autumn months are again falling prices expected, which can end up in the Dec. 2016 at about €1.25 / kg.

For the entire year 2016, extrapolating with similarly low prices as in the previous year by 2015, remains but constant back 25% below the multi-annual mean from 2010 to 2014.

Direct trade competition between the EU and the denUSA with each one-third share of the world market exports entails, that U.S. pork prices to affect the EU price level and vice versa.  This is still the exchange rate into account.

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