US meat market 2025: less beef, more pork, even more chicken
On the occasion of its monthly preview of the US meat market in 2025, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts a stagnating meat market of just under 46 million tons in total in its May issue. However, there are significant differences between the individual types of meat.
US beef production has been in decline for several years. A further decline of -5.5 % is expected for 2025. Domestic supply remains relatively low due to the previous reduction in cattle numbers. Imports will only compensate for the production deficit at high or rising prices, but not in full. This results in high consumer prices, which lead to restrained demand. The USDA estimates a decline in PPP from 26.4 kg to 25.2 kg per capita. Market prices are expected to be +2.7 % higher in 2025.
The US pork market is benefiting from increased domestic consumption, but also from 5% higher US exports due to less competitive EU-27 exports.
For the barbecue months of July - Sept. 2024, the USDA expects average prices of the equivalent of € 1.95/kg with a slight increase in domestic production and imports mainly from Canada.
In the further course of the fall/winter months of 2024/25, US pork production is expected to increase, which is justified by the increased piglet output per sow. This trend has recently become increasingly apparent due to lower disease losses. Accordingly, the price expectations for Q4-24 are estimated to be slightly lower at €1.54/kg and in Q1-2025 at €1.62/kg.
The projection for 2025 as a whole shows an increase in production of 1.2% with little change in domestic consumption; exports are estimated to be around 4.8% higher than in the current year. The average price level in 2025 is estimated at € 1.65/kg.
Although the US chicken market has not been as dynamic as in previous years, it is growing faster than other types of meat at +1.6%. This is due to the comparatively low price, which is expected to remain below the previous year's level in 2025. This will improve competitiveness compared to other types of meat. The USDA is forecasting a slight increase in consumption of 46 kg per capita per year in 2025.
