24.
12.14
10:32

US-pig counting: high production, falling price expectations for 2015

US pigs as of Dec. 1, 2014: strong increase in the herd of sows and the services of piglets per litter.

The youngest US pig counting deadline Dec. 1, 2014 provided broad confirmation of the expected numbers on the one hand, on the other hand, significant concerns arise if development really should be taking place, as the conclusions drawn from the results might suggest.

The entire US pig falls 2% higher than at the same time of last year. Compared to the last count from 1 Sept 14 the increase approximately 1%.

That is amazingly high increase in the breeding animals with + 4% on nearly 6 million sows. The increase in the previous quarter is 1%.

A previous record reached the pig numbers in the period from September to November 2014 including deposed 10.23 piglets. This achievement is noteworthy, because the PEDv disease in piglets is still virulent, if also significantly weaker than in the spring months Feb-March 14.

For the coming period of time by Dec. 14 to Feb-15 the US pig farmers expect about 4% more Abferkelungen compared to the same period last year. In the following it should be quarter of March until may 2015 + 3%.

The increasing number of future Abferkelungen in connection with above-average performance of piglets per sow and litter can expect an enormously increasing slaughter pigs in the remainder of the year 2015. Contain growth could reach by 6 to 8%.

Such an increase is likely that overwhelming demand for pork from home and abroad. Experiences from previous years with similar high growth rates suggest the devastating pig prices. 

However, reservations are taken into account. Details of the future Abferkelungen and number of piglets per litter assumes usually from an "average" development, i.e. that the PEDv epidemic in the cold winter time 2015 not is repeated. This is however not sure given the past experiences and recent observations. On the other hand, the intensification of measures to combat the disease is not to see, so that the precipitating events does not necessarily need to repeat itself.  

The US pig farmers are heading for a year with far above-average prices and win a coming period with significantly lower profits to loss expectations . The ancient mechanism of the price cycle works up to the present day.

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