Agricultural Outlook Forum: more pork, increasing export, falling prices
At the annual 2-day Forum of the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) to future developments in agriculture has been on the Schweinefleisch market 2016 is a 2.2% increase of US production forecasts. The Americans by 3.7% intend to increase exports. The U.S. imports to fall by 10%.
Producer prices for pork are to go back to the appropriations for the year 2016 by 5.9% to the previous year. Equivalent, prices should range between 1.24 and €1.32 / kg SG. Here, the lower percentage of lean meat are not considered.
On the cost side , is expected to significantly falling prices of animal feed. Corn prices are calculated with 12,50 €/ dt and the soy meal courses with 28 €/ dt. Feed efficiency is calculated with 1: 3.3. The battle weights increased from 93 to 96 kg should not continue to grow.
In I. quarter of 2016 calculated losses by an average $15 per pig. During the summer period with the BBQ season is to achieved rising pork prices to €1.50 / kg profits. In the latter part of the year with the end of the cooking time losses are expected in pig prices €1.20 / kg again.
In the U.S. pig production is again PEDv epidemic (fatal diarrhea disease in piglets) to expect a normalization in the 2nd year in a row. However, the performance figures of the sows not yet are on trend level. In the sow housing, rather decline Abferkelungen are expected for the 1st half of the year, while in the 2nd half of the year, an increase of 0.5% is predicted.
