Long-term U.S. pork market: volumes increase, prices fall
The U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) published long-term studies for individual agricultural markets at the end of each year. The projection range up to the year 2025.
The U.S. pork market has experienced ups and downs in the past few years. The main reason was the PEDv epidemic, a deadly diarrhoea disease in piglets. About 15% of piglets died in the winter period in 2013/14 .
The missing animal material is reflected in the year 2014 due to a lower volume of pork. Rising domestic consumption and increasing exports, which rose U.S. pork prices above the mark $2 per kg SG.
These price developments was the pork production impetus to expand the following year by 7.5% . Suddenly the rates in the average of the year 2015 on 1.5 fell $ per kg and landed at the end of the year at about $1.20 per kg. In addition, the strong dollar exchange rate pressure on the developed of price, because the export has considerably lost competitiveness.
For 2016 will be calculated with a production increase of 1.7% . Domestic consumption is expected to grow more moderately. Therefore, the annual average price should continue towards $1.40 depending on kg drop.
An increasing production of between 1.7 and 1.0% is expected for the following years. The growth is the domestic demand of 0.8 to 0% against. It follows further price pressure because the increasing offer volumes on the export routes need to be accommodated. The international market is not easy for US meat because used growth promoter in each importing country are accepted.
The multi-year price level calculated the USDA in the following years with a magnitude between 1.20 to $1.30 per kg. These prices should indeed occur, also the European courses affected are drawn. The United States and the EU are approximately equal to strong exporters on the world market with a share of each one-third market.
