USDA forecast 2022: China's meat imports are falling - pork exporters looking for sales The world's largest pork producer China is expected to return to moderate upward trends after a 30% increase in production in 2021 . The USDA estimates own production of around 51 million t for 2022 or +7.4% compared to the previous year. At the low point of 2020, only a quantity of 36.4 million t was reached. Chinese pork consumption is estimated at 54.4 million t in 2022 . The pre-ASF consumption was 55.3 million t. The lowest consumption was recorded in 2020 with 41.5 million t . The inevitable renunciation of consumption was mitigated by increasing imports of meat of all kinds . In addition, there were 3.3 million tons of beef and around 1 milliont chicken meat . At that time, China dominated the global meat trade with an average share of 31%, and in the case of pork even 45%. For the year 2022, the USDA estimates Chinese pork imports, including Hong Kong, at 3.85 million t . In addition, 3.5 million t of beef and 0.8 million t of chicken meat imports are predicted. The share of trade in global pork sales falls to around 35%.; in the case of beef , the market share is expected to increase slightly. This is unlikely to ease the global tight supply situation for beef. The Chinese import cuts mainly affect the pork-exporting countries . As the world's largest export region, this includes the EU-27 with a previous share of deliveries to China of over 60%. As is well known, Germany no longer counts. But Spain with a trade share of approx.one third is severely affected. Denmark and the Netherlands are also required to find alternative outlets. The USDA estimates that EU exports will fall from around 5 to 4.75 million tons in 2022. US market analysts are assuming that EU exports to Japan, South Korea and Australia, which have been somewhat neglected in recent years, will pick up again. Great Britain is also on the export list with increasing quantities. The USA , as the second largest pork exporter, has already lost around half of its previous exports to China from mid-2021, but was able to compensate for a considerable part through increases in exports to Mexico and other South American countries. For 2022 , the USDA expects an export reduction of 6%. Canada exports around 65% of its pork production. The country has already suffered significant supply losses to China . Further declines are expected.Of Brazil's expanding pork production, 30% is exported . Exports have doubled in 5 years. The share of trade with China is 16%. Other importing countries for Brazilian pork are Vietnam, the Philippines, Argentina and Uruquay. For 2022, the USDA only estimates a moderate increase of 1%. The pig prices vary in the individual production areas and are subject to considerable fluctuations over time depending on the supply situation. In terms of level and change, China has the most striking price differences. During the ASF spread phase, prices were the equivalent of between 5 and 6 €/kg , falling back to 2.3 €/kg in mid-2021 with growing self-sufficiency. At the beginning of 2022 , prices will fluctuate around the €2.50/kg mark.From autumn 2022, the futures prices on the Dalian Stock Exchange will again show orders of magnitude above 3 €/kg . For months in 2021 , EU pig prices ranged from €1 to €1.50/kg , depending on the market situation in the Member States. Only in March 2022 did a rapid price increase to an EU average level of €1.75/kg take place, which was driven by a reduced supply of slaughter pigs and an upturn in demand. There was a price freeze in April 2022 because consumer price increases have led to subdued demand. Hopes are pinned on a favorable barbecue season in the summer months. The corona-related US destocking of pigs and cold storage stocks in the previous 2 years has contributed to a relative shortage in the North American market in the past few months. US producer prices hover above the €2/kg line .For the summer months of 2022, futures prices are traded on the stock exchanges at around €2.50/kg. In autumn, however, the prices will drop significantly. Brazil's hog prices are heavily influenced by export opportunities and wildly fluctuating exchange rates . The level is set at €1.35/kg with a range from just under €1 to €1.65/kg. Conclusion: The international pork markets are on the way to repositioning at a higher level under changed framework conditions.
