USDA Preview on the global meat market, 2016: production + 1%, consumption + 0.8% - weak prospects for the EU
In his appearing twice in the annual Preview of the livestock and meat markets at world level , the USDA in the Oct. issue one has forecast 1% rise in global meat output. After the moderate growth of only 0.4% in the current year, the growth rates should again based on the multi-annual average of 1.2%.
On the consumption page remains the forecast increase of 0.8% still behind the multi-year development of consumption of just over 1%, fails but twice as high as in the current period.
She should vigorously get in the last decade only still moderate increase in beef production by an average 0.3% in next year of 2016 with estimated 1.3%. Significant increases in contributions should come from US cattle, India's beef production and living on cattle in Brazil.
Beef consumption should stand out clearly with a consumption increase of 1% from the stagnant development of earlier years. The fallen prices of beef in the United States and some other areas, as well as income-related growth rates in emerging markets, all import figures further growing China should help.
The decline of Chinese pigs in the last 1.5 years with 50% share of production at world level to at the level of two years ago before rising again. At the world level, the USDA estimates a total increase of pork production by 0.5%. Keep back the development well below previous average of 1.3%.
But also be careful global demand for pork with only 0.3% increase in assessed in the year 2016. The multiannual mean values are for an annual increase of 1.3%. The China effect is as fast to compensate.
The poultry meat sector has this year strongly benefit from the impact with the "red meat". In the United States, chicken meat resembled the missing quantities of beef and pork. The development in Russia was even more extreme. After the import ban, Russian poultry meat production has grown in 2 years by around 20%. It was not enough but always still, to compensate for the import-related false needs.
2016 is expected around the world with a further increase of 1.6% in the poultry meat sector . A demand increase in similar-sized faces which.
The worldwide trade in meat is estimated at page export increases by an average of 3.3%, the highest rate of increase at 4.5% accounted for poultry meat. For pork export increases is estimated at 1.6%, with the largest share of foremost China comes to East Asian countries.
For the EU-28 the USDA estimates far lower than average production developments in beef and poultry meat sector under 0.5% increases and a decline in the pig sector. EU exports of meat to be somewhat less expensive, as long as the weakness of the euro provides a competitive advantage.
