Pork Market 2018 - China is recovering - USA is booming - EU stagnates Half-yearly, the US Food and Agriculture Ministry estimates the future development on the meat markets.For 2018, a further growth on the pig market is estimated to be on average 1.8% . However, different conditions have to be met in the individual production areas. In the world's largest production area , the USDA expects a re-production of pig production and consumption. The largest Chinese production volume ever 2014 with 56.71 million tonnes fell to 53 million tonnes and is expected to rise to 54.75 million tonnes in the coming year .Chinese consumption has not yet reached the old mark of 57.2 million t; the estimate for 2018 is at 56.11 million tonnes. The import requirements will be reduced from the previous 2.1 million tonnes to 1.6 million tonnes (measured in slaughter weight) decline. In the USA , the pigmeat production has been running since 2014 By 13% . For 2018 a further + 4% is expected or 0.5 million t. The increase in domestic demand from 8.5 million tonnes in 2014 to 9.86 million tonnes in the coming year 2018 is remarkable, an increase of 16%. US exports are expected to rise from 2.6 to 2.7 million tonnes in 2018, but remain behind the EU in second place.The production of Russian pigmeat is under pressure from the need for importation by 20% to 3 million tonnes . The self-sufficiency has grown from under 75% to 92%. For the year 2018 Russia is to expand its production by 1.3% . The greatest obstacle remains African swine fever. The Russian health controls are to become more acute. Export plans are being put on hold for the time being.The Russian pork prices are from 2.50 € / kg in March 2017 now fell below 2 € / kg. For the territory of the EU, the USDA estimates a slight decline in pork production of 23.4 to 23.35 million tonnes . Exports are expected to remain unchanged at 2.8 million tonnes. The main focus of the deliveries is towards China.Brazil is responsible for 3.75 million tonnes of pigmeat production . Of this, 2.9 million tonnes remain in their own country. Exports are expected to rise to a considerable 830,000 tonnes. Russia has so far been the largest customer, the Southeast Asian markets are developing into a growing sales territory. Canada's export-oriented pig farming has grown significantly over the past 5 years with a 10% increase . For 2018, a further increase of 2% compared with the previous year is expected. With a production of approx. 2 million tonnes are exported 1.35 million tonnes . The new CETA agreement with the EU promises new sales opportunities in the coming years.The 3 regions EU, USA and Canada have more than three quarters in pigmeat exports of the world trade in the front seats. In importing , the three countries China, Japan and Mexico claim more than half of world trade. After the temporary rise in pork, the Chinese import demand for beef is now booming. The increase ranges from almost zero in 2011 to 1 million tonnes in the coming year. An end is not yet foreseen.
