Pork worldwide scarcer than previously thought. USDA estimates world pork production in 2020 to be even lower than at the beginning of the year The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates quarterly pork production in major production areas. The most recent study comes to a further shortened result of 94.3 million t compared to the January 2020 estimate of 96.4 million t. Compared to the normal year 2018 with 113 million t this year, almost 20 million t are missing worldwide. The main cause of the pork deficit is the ASP-related slump in pig stocks in China . For 2020, the USDA estimates Chinese pork production to be 34 million tonnes compared to the normal year 2018 of 54 million tonnes. In the second largest production area EU-28 there will be a 0.3% increase in pork production to 24.1 million tons . expected. In the world's 3rd largest production region, the USA, pork production is in a multi-year rise phase.In a two-year comparison, the growth rates are around 10% to 13.2 million tons . This growth rate also reaches the much smaller country of Brazil . Production is expected to exceed the order of 4 million t for the first time. Russia's pork production also grows by 6% to just over 3 million tons. As a result of the ASP, Vietnam's pig production falls from 2.8 million to 2.2 million t . Global pork trade increases by 30% to just under 10 million tons . On the import side , China / HK is in first place with over 4 million tons. Japan has been dependent on increasing imports of 1.5 million t for years. In smaller units, pork is delivered to a variety of grant areas. On the export side , the EU (3.9 million t) dominate ahead of the USA (3.4 million t ). Both countries together account for ¾ of the world's exports.When it comes to China exports, the EU countries account for approx. two thirds at the very front. Spain and Germany delivered significant shares. In January 2020 , the quantities doubled to 275,000 t compared to the previous year. US deliveries to China increased fourfold to 100,000 tons per month in the same period last year. The background to this is the increasing abandonment of growth promoters . In addition, Chinese punitive tariffs for US imports have been reduced. It is crucial, however, that on the one hand China is dependent on any increase in imports and on the other hand the US production volumes have increased so much that one urgently needs to take advantage of every export opportunity. After all, the US prices are on the ground with the equivalent of 1 € / kg. The corona virus pandemic is contributing to this. The current pig prices in Easter week were set between 2 to 7 ct / kg lower for Germany, Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy and Spain .Despite different national pricing conditions, the level is above € 1.80 / kg. For the delivery month of Apr. 2020, pig prices are being traded on the Chicago stock exchange for € 0.86 / kg . In the province of Ontario, pig prices of around € 1.05 / kg are published in Canada . Brazil's pig prices have fallen to € 1.03 / kg on average in the listing areas.
