The past and future of pigs
Crisis mood phases in a sector of the economy are sufficient occasion to think about their causes and to derive conclusions for future actions might be.
Today, a world-comprehensive approach is necessary for the understanding of the development of the pig sector. The times of European cutting oneself off from the so-called world market belong to for almost a decade in the past.
In Germany was in the 80s and 90s years a achieved self-sufficiency in pork production by 80% to 90%. With the turn of the century a growing increase in German pork production began, while at the same time domestic consumption more or less stagnated. In 2006 exceeded the 100% mark for the first time. Beginning in 2010 until today, the German pig farms has stagnated however.
The increase in pork production in Germany was of factors more worn. The biggest boost was triggered by the enlargement in 2004. The competition-weak pig farms in Central and Eastern Europe and the rising purchasing power of the consumers there quickly led to a rising sales potential in the transport-related consumption area.
The rapid production increase in pork production was thus made possible, that pig from the neighbouring countries Denmark and Holland in increasing measure were provided. The transition to the more productive Dan breeding earnings the decline of sow housing in Germany. Today, approximately 11 million piglets and 20% are imported. In Germany there is a structural lack of Piglet or a suitable mast space surplus. The result is a much narrower pigs piglets price than was the case in earlier decades.
Rising pork exports used in addition to the internal market sales in the Central and Eastern European countries and Italy also third-country sales. A focus was in the Feb. 2014 Russia with rising EU imports up to 750,000 tons before the import lock. To North Americans, the EU had a competitive advantage by rd. €0.30 / kg. The sales market China/Hong Kong, but only with export prices, which hardly exceed €1.30 / kg was found for little valuable pieces. Further deliveries to South Korea, Philippines and other Asian countries can be sold only in limited quantities.
The Russian import lock - originally introduced reasons of hygiene disease due to AFP, later extended to political counter sanctions because of the Ukraine crisis - now with lack purchasing power of Russia substantially supplemented. A not foreseeable that lost way of sales seems to be. Alternative export options are to look at in terms of low earnings of less valuable parts hardly a full substitute. Valuable fresh products don't mix with long transport distances. A powerful pork market to a large extent depends on the fresh meat business.
A structurally necessary export-oriented German and European pigmeat production must adjust to a greatly restricted export potential . The missing are simply sufficiently financially strong customers around Europe. Given domestic consumption no longer steigerungsfähigen a corresponding reset of the production potential will be required in the future. A structural adjustment process is foreseen for the next years.
