News overview & archive

Clear break in the market The fertilizer market is currently in a phase of strong price jumps ("explosion") The difference to before: CW 10: Shock only in the world market CW 12: Shock reaches EuropeNitrogen (urea, KAS, AHL) 🌍 World market Massive price jumps Import prices Europe: Urea up to ~700 €/t Cause: Supply shortfall in the Gulf region…

The Iran conflict has already triggered sharp price rises on the global market. The effects on the European domestic market are only now beginning to be felt and could become clearly visible in the coming weeks. 1️⃣ World market (urea export prices) → Reacts immediately to geopolitical events (Iran conflict). 2️⃣ EU import prices → react with a few…

Regulatory environment & EU market signals CBAM: Market gets used to new regulations - uncertainty remains The full application of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) continues to have a structural price-dampening effect through restrained import volumes, albeit without an acute price surge. The EU Commission is signaling that the first…

1. regulatory environment & EU market signals CBAM: Less price-driving than expected - but still shaping the market The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been fully operational since 1.1.2026. Traders, importers and fertilizer blenders unanimously report that the actual CO₂ costs for imported fertilizers are lower than originally…

1. regulatory environment & political signals CBAM remains the dominant system factor The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the European Commission continues to have a decisive influence on European fertilizer pricing. Initial feedback from the industry shows that CBAM reporting obligations and CO₂ factors are more complex than expected…

Rapeseed / canola - stabilization despite global abundance of oilseeds The oilseed complex is characterized globally by high production volumes and rising ending stocks, particularly for soybeans in South America. At the same time, the IGC analysis signals rising oilseed production and higher global stocks overall, which structurally limits the…

Wheat - Fundamental oversupply meets short-term stabilization The global wheat balance sheet remains structurally oversupplied, as global ending stocks remain at a high level and thus secure physical supplies. At the same time, a slight increase in global trade is only providing limited demand stimulus. Although global ending stocks were reduced…

1. regulatory environment & policy signals CBAM remains central price driver (as at 12.02.2026) The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) of the European Commission remains the dominant topic for all European fertilizer markets. Since 1 January 2026, imported fertilizers (urea, ammonia, NPK, DAP, etc.) have to be priced based on emissions. The…

1) MARKET OVERVIEW The European potato market remains under structural pressure due to high production and weak demand. Record harvests and large stocks led to a significant price decline and market imbalance in 2025. At the same time, cultivation areas and processing capacities in the EU have expanded significantly, which can lead to surpluses if…

1. regulatory environment & political signals CBAM remains the dominant market factor (as at week 6) As in week 5, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) remains the central variable for pricing and market dynamics. It has been fully effective since January 1, 2026. Several EU member states are now openly discussing a temporary suspension of…

1. regulatory environment & policy signals Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) remains a key driver: From 1 January 2026, imports of CO₂-intensive fertilizers must be covered by CBAM certificates, which creates new costs along the supply chain and also influences import prices. CBAM therefore has a direct impact on the European fertilizer…

1. regulatory environment & key market drivers Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) - key topic The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has been fully effective since 1 January 2026, which means that imports of CO₂-intensive goods - including fertilizers - are now subject to embedded emissions costs. This CO₂ levy may cause the price…

1) Price and cost trends (since calendar week 3 2026) Price-supporting factors The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into force on January 1, 2026. Market participants report that this is already having a price-supporting effect on imported fertilizers because additional carbon dioxide costs are being priced in - even if many…

Market data analysis & forecasts - 02.01.2026 Overview: This report summarizes current developments on the fertilizer markets in Germany, the EU and the US. In addition, comparative signals from the Black Sea region (Russia/Ukraine) are taken into account insofar as they are relevant for trade flows and pricing in the EU. The following are reported…

Rapeseed Weekly market development Global: USDA and other forecasts show rising global rapeseed production (including Australia, Canada, Russia) and higher ending stocks. EU context: Sufficient oilseed supply overall; no bottleneck signals. Trend: EU & global: stable to slightly bearish 2-4 week outlook: Sideways, with slight downside risk as…

Market analysis & forecasts - December 22, 2025 Wheat Weekly market development USDA / WASDE & Exports: Global wheat stocks and ending stocks were recently revised upwards, mainly due to higher harvests in Canada, Argentina, the EU and Russia. The US producer price remained unchanged. Price movement: US wheat futures trended weaker last week…

Rapeseed /Canola & Oilseeds The WASDE report raises rapeseed production globally, including in the EU and Ukraine. However, market reports recently show a decline in oilseed futures partly due to oversupply (e.g. good canola harvests in Australia). Ukrainian export quotations for rapeseed are under pressure, influenced by weak demand and…

Wheat Trend: Globally and in the EU still stable to slightly declining Key data points: December WASDE lifts global wheat production again: higher harvests in Canada, Argentina, the EU, Australia and Russia, among others. Global ending stocks rise accordingly - supply remains ample. There was no change in the wheat balance sheet for the USA in…

Current trends (last 2-4 weeks) Nitrogen fertilizers (ammonia, urea, UAN, ammonium nitrate, ammonium sulphate) In Europe, prices for nitrogen fertilizers have recently risen significantly once again. According to ICIS, the European "nitrogen basket" (e.g. granular urea, UAN 30, CAN 27) reached its highest level since the beginning of 2023 on…

Rapeseed / Canola Fundamental facts Specific figures for rapeseed in the WASDE/IGC are less prominent. Nevertheless, the USDA WASDE analyzes oilseed production and use (e.g. US oilseed production 125.8 million tonnes). EU/Germany: EU harvest expectations for rapeseed moderately higher, but supply increasing. Ukraine/Russia region: Ukraine exports…

Wheat / Wheat Fundamental facts USDA: For 2025/26 US wheat: supply side increases → supply increases, ending stocks increased. USDA: Global wheat supply estimated at 1,090.3 million tons, ending stocks at 271.4 million tons (increase compared to previous month) IGC: Global wheat harvest 2025/26 increased to approx. 830 million tons (+31 million…

Market data analysis & forecasts - Fertilizer market Europe (as at the beginning of November 2025) 1. brief overview European fertilizer prices have once again shown a marked upward trend since the beginning of 2025 - particularly for phosphate and nitrogen products. At the same time, new import duties and levies imposed by the European Commission…

Rapeseed Trends: Germany: According to the Union zur Förderung von Oel- und Proteinpflanzen e. V. (UFOP), rapeseed imports and processing declined slightly. Black Sea region: Reduced rapeseed production was forecast for Ukraine in 2025 (e.g. -160,000 tons), including the impact on exports. Price indicators (e.g. on bar chart for rapeseed futures)…

Wheat Trends: Ukraine's wheat export volumes in the week Nov 3-9 were reported at around 290,000 tons - significantly below the previous week (approx. 399,000 tons). The European Commission market overview for Russia/Ukraine continues to show relatively competitive FOB prices for wheat and corn due to export tax exemptions and changes in export…

Rapeseed / Canola / Rapeseed Trend (current): slightly rising Current developments & data: According to Agritel, it is noticeable that the rapeseed market has recently been affected by harvest / competitive pressure, but prices have found support (e.g. the November-2025 contract on Euronext is trading as just above a support level). The market…

Wheat Trend (current): rising Current developments & data: The USDA reports net export sales of ~539,800 tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, up +43% from the previous week and +37% above the 4-week average. Weekly exports were ~896,000 tons, +16% from the previous week and +18% above the 4-week average. According to the monthly "World Markets and…

Basic data & market development - until week 44/2025 (as at: 10.11.2025) Raw milk / producer prices The weighted average price of raw milk (EU-27) amounted to ≈ €54.53/100 kg in September 2025. A value of ≈ €56.64/100 kg is reported for October 2025. This means that the milk price remains at a high level, although the momentum is tending to flatten…

Due to the shutdown in the US, there is currently no new World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture or a brand new International Grains Council (IGC) Grains & Oilseeds edition beyond the last available editions.The following trends are produced without these reports: Rapeseed /…

There is currently no new World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report from the United States Department of Agriculture or a brand new International Grains Council (IGC) Grains & Oilseeds edition beyond the most recently available editions.The following trends are produced without these reports: Wheat Current trend: stable to…

Rapeseed / Canola (oilseeds) Latest trend: stable to slightly rising The IGC outlook for total grains/oilseeds implies moderate growth rates for oilseeds as well, supported by demand and increased supply. Specific to rapeseed/canola: In Europe, there are risks from drought stress and extreme weather conditions that could support prices. Market…

Market analysis & forecasts (WASDE probably canceled) Wheat Latest trend: slightly falling to stable The IGC is forecasting higher grain production for 2025/26, including wheat, which will increase supply pressure. Global stocks (carryovers) are estimated by the IGC to increase by 17 million tons to around 606 million tons, which signals an…

Rapeseed/Canola Situation: Matif rapeseed recently fell slightly, but remains above previous year; EU Commission estimates higher rapeseed production in 2025 (≈ +10 % y/y), which is fundamentally dampening the market. Germany/AT: The market declining agricultural commodity prices incl. rapeseed. Trend: slightly falling. 2-4 weeks: Sideways to…

Market analysis - 29.09.2025 Wheat Current situation: - EU exports of common wheat are approx. 35% below the previous year. - Germany: Producer prices sideways to slightly weaker Trend: stable to slightly falling in the EU, stable in export regions. 2-4 week forecast: Sideways to slightly rising if export demand increases or weather-related…

Market analysis - 22.09.2025 Wheat, maize and rapeseed (Euronext) Current development The most important agricultural commodities on Euronext closed weaker on Friday evening. Wheat, corn and rapeseed suffered from profit-taking. However, the technical support zones remain intact: Wheat (December 2025): €189-190/t Corn (November 2025): 185-196 €/t…

1. market overview & figures According to Mordor Intelligence, the market volume in Europe is expected to reach around USD 55.27 billion by 2025, with a forecast CAGR of 5.51% until 2030 - target value ~USD 72.27 billion In contrast, ResearchAndMarkets forecasts more moderate growth: from USD 43.4 billion (2024) to USD 54.21 billion by 2033 at a…

Soybeans Production: ~4.3 billion bushels with high yields (53.5 bu/acre). Exports: adjusted downwards (stronger competition). Ending stocks: rising. Summary: supply comfortable, export pressure weighs on prices.

Market analysis - USDA WASDE (September 2025) Key findings Corn (maize) US 2025/26 production: record high at 16.8bn bushels (+72m bushels vs. previous month). Yield: slightly lower at ~186.7 bu/acre (-2.1 vs. August), but offset by higher acreage planted and harvested. Ending stocks: slightly reduced, but remain very high. Exports: close to record…

Rapeseed / Oilseed rape USDA: Global oilseed crop production lower, ending stocks down - trend: rising IGC: Stable global availability, oilseed index firm - trend: stable to slightly rising U.S. soybeans 2025/26: lower beginning/end stocks and slight decline in production (4.3 billion bushels) based on reduced acreage. Crush remains stable, exports…

Wheat USDA: U.S. supply slightly tightened, exports up, ending stocks down - trend: slightly up IGC: Global production at record level, demand rising, stocks slightly replenished - trend: stable to slightly rising Maize (Corn) USDA: Record production forecast, higher exports & use, ending stocks up sharply - trend: falling (price pressure from…

Soybeans / oilseeds Trend: → stable to slightly bullish Increased use (crush & biofuels) supports price. Outlook: CME: 9.90-10.20 $/bu Rapeseed / Canola Trend: → stable EU Commission signals solid harvest base; no new impulses. Outlook: Euronext: 430-445 €/t Sunflowers Trend: slightly bearish IGC forecasts increased harvest - slight supply squeeze…

Wheat Trend: → stable to slightly bearish Slightly declining global ending stocks, stable supply situation. Outlook: Euronext: 195-200 €/t - CME: 5.20-5.50 $/bu Maize / Corn Trend: ↓ slightly bearish Increased US production & ending stocks alleviate price pressure. Outlook: CME: 4.00-4.30 $/bu - EU: 180-190 €/t Crude oil (Brent/WTI) Trend: → stable…

Rapeseed / Canola Market situation (EU & global) EU rapeseed market: The latest figures from the EU Commission show that this year's EU harvest is likely to be slightly below last year's (estimated -1.5% to -2%). Yields vary greatly from region to region - Northern and Western Europe are reporting decent results, while heat and water shortages have…

1) Wheat Trend (short-term 2-4 weeks): stable → slightly falling Price range (2-4 weeks): Euronext 195-200 €/t; CME SRW 5.20-5.50 $/bu Key data & justification WASDE Aug. 2025: Global wheat ending stocks lowered further; USDA cites 260.1 mn t as lowest level since 2015/16. This keeps the market risk premium elevated, but production remains…

1. market overview The oilseed market was volatile in the reporting week, but was able to stabilize above important support levels. Rapeseed for the November 2025 contract on Euronext traded above €475/t again at times. Sunflower prices (new crop) also stabilized after the previous week's declines. 2. weather and fundamental data Soybeans (USA)…

Market status (until week 31) Euronext wheat (Sep, IX): from 202.75 €/t (22.07.) to 196.75 €/t (29.07.) → Trend: ↓ bearish Northern hemisphere harvest: mostly on schedule, yield/quality solid; rain phases delayed locally, no structural quality losses so far → Signal: → neutral EU balance 25/26: high export demand, but subdued global demand → Price…

According to the latest EU-MARS bulletin, several member states are benefiting from favorable weather conditions and achieving above-average yields per hectare in winter crops. This applies in particular to Romania, Bulgaria, France, Spain, Ireland and the northern and Baltic countries. Winter yields are also expected to be above the five-year…

The World Bank's Fertilizer Price Index has risen by around 15% since the beginning of the year, driven by strong demand, trade barriers and production declines - particularly for urea. Russia continues to expand its influence: Market share of mineral fertilizers to increase from 20% to 25% by 2030, with focus on BRICS markets. Exports to reach 65…

The International Grains Council (IGC) is forecasting the highest global grain production ever for 2025/26 at 2,376 million tons - driven by record harvests of wheat (808 million tons, +8 million tons) and maize (1,276 million tons, +48 million tons) compared to the previous year. Total consumption also increased to 2,376 million tons (+1.5%)…

The USDA has lowered its forecasts for global wheat and corn ending stocks in 2025/26. The EU is particularly affected, where ending stocks remain tight despite higher production and lower imports. Global wheat exports are falling slightly, with exports from the EU and Ukraine declining, while Russia is increasing its export forecast. Overall, the…

July 2025: FAO updates world grain supply. In its latest July issue, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has updated its estimate of the world grain supply in 2025-26. Global production (including rice) of 2,925 million tons in 2025/26 will be offset by consumption of 2,900 million tons. The difference contributes to…

1st GDT auction in July 2025: prices down -4.1% The first July 2025 auction of Global Dairy Trade (GDT) continued the price decline of the two previous auctions with an average of -4.1%. Auction volumes rose unusually sharply to 25,705 tons. The maximum quantity offered was even around 30,000 tons. However, it should be noted that milk supply in…

The ife index stabilized at 49.8 ct/kg in June - the first recovery after five months of decline. Raw material value (ct/kg) Change compared to previous month January 2025 52,9 -1.8 ct February 51,7 -1.2 ct March 50,6 -1.1 ct April 49,7 -0.9 ct May 49,0 -0.7 ct June 49,8 New Zealand Milk Auctions July 01, 2025: Index at USD 4 389, stable since June…

IGC estimates global grain production in 2025/26 just above consumption In its end-of-June issue, the International Grains Council (IGC) put global grain supply in 2025-26 at a slightly higher level compared to the previous month. At 2,377 million tons, production is forecast to be slightly higher than consumption at 2,373 million tons. Accordingly…

EU-KOM confirms good average EU rapeseed harvest In its latest June issue, the EU COM confirms its previous estimate of the EU rapeseed harvest in 2025 at 18.9 million tons. The May forecast was only slightly lower. This is due to the higher acreage (5.95 million hectares) and higher yields per hectare of around 32 dt/ha (previous year: 29 dt/ha)…

End of June: EU COM raises 2025/26 harvest estimate After 3 previous years of below-average harvests, this year's grain production is expected to return to the level of previous periods. The EU Commission estimates the result at 282.9 million tons, around 11% higher than in the weak previous year. Higher acreage and yields per hectare will…

Cut-off date June 22, 2025: US wheat seed level slightly weaker The USDA report on the seed status of the USA showed a downward trend in the assessment of US wheat as of June 22, 2025. The weekly report is based on 3,600 reporters from around 90% of the grain-growing regions. In the southern US provinces, 19% of the wheat has already been threshed…

June 2025: MARS estimates EU grain yields +1% higher than in May In its June 25 issue, the EU Commission's Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS) has revised its yield estimates for the 2025 harvest upwards by 1% compared to the May forecast. This is based on the evaluation of climate data up to June 14. The results will be incorporated into…

Russia is the world's largest wheat exporter with 40 to 50 million tons (depending on the harvest). In comparison, the EU 27 has around 30 million tons and the USA only 25 million tons. Russia is expected to export a smaller quantity in 2025 due to the drought. The main sales areas are the North African countries and Turkey. Around 40% of Russian…

DRV with 4th estimate of the German grain and rapeseed harvest 2025 The German Raiffeisen Association (DRV) estimates that the German grain harvest in 2025 will be 41.4 million tons in the 4th estimate, up on the previous year's figure of around 39 million tons. In the March forecast, the result was still at 40 million tons. This is due to the…

COCERAL corrects EU harvest estimate for 2025 upwards In June, the umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders raised its quarterly estimate of the EU grain harvest in 2025 to a total of around 279 million tonnes compared to the March 25 issue. In spring 2025, the forecast was still around 274.5 million tons. In the previous year…