News overview & archive

DRV sets 2nd harvest estimate for 2020 lower - precipitation is missing The German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) has slightly reduced the German grain harvest in 2020 compared to the previous month in its 2nd estimate. The total result is estimated at 45 million t and is therefore only slightly above the average of the past 5 years. The forecast is based…

Pork worldwide scarcer than previously thought. USDA estimates world pork production in 2020 to be even lower than at the beginning of the year The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates quarterly pork production in major production areas. The most recent study comes to a further shortened result of 94.3 million t compared to the January…

USDA Reduces Global Oilseed Production 2019 / 20– Smaller Soybean Harvest in South America In its latest April edition, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut global oilseed production to only 577 million tonnes. In the previous month's estimate, 580 million tons were still assumed. In the previous year it was 597 million tons. The decisive…

USDA slightly increases global grain supply in 2019/20: less consumption and trade The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has in its monthly market report provided the latest estimate of global grain supply in 2019/20 for the time being. The first estimate for 2020/21 comes in May. The total production of this marketing year is estimated to be…

1.GDT auction in April 2020 delivers an average result of +1.2% The first Apr. 2020 auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ended with an average result of 1.2% . The main pillars were the surcharges for butter and whole milk powder. MMP once again landed with moderate discounts in the negative range. At 20,302 t, sales were again lower than in the…

Canada's rapeseed supply is becoming scarcer - higher rapeseed prices are expected. Canada is one of the largest rapeseed producers in the world before the EU-28. In contrast to the EU, the North American country is also the world's largest exporter of these oil seeds. Canada produced 18.65 million t of rapeseed in the 2019/20 marketing year…

Expectations for US pig prices for summer 2020 plummeted from € 1.65 to € 1.06 / kg. In November 2019 , the US had high price expectations for 2020 with a focus on the summer barbecue season . The term courses for the months of May to August ranged between € 1.55 and € 1.75 / kg . The reason was the combination of seasonally high domestic…

Inventory from March 1st-20th in the USA: 4% more pigs The US cattle count as of March 1st-20th surprised the expectations of market experts. The total pig population was 4% higher than at the same time last year. The forecasts were only 2 to 3%. The low growth of 0.4% in sow herds compared to the predictions of 0.5 to 2% was also unexpected. The…

IGC predicts higher soybean harvest 2020/21 and slightly improved supply situation The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates the soybean harvest of the 2020/21 marketing year to be 7.4% higher than in the weak previous year. The production level is again in the multi-year trend. The main polluters are the two largest growing regions, Brazil…

IGC estimates global grain supply 2020/21 slightly higher than in the current marketing year . The International Grains Council (IGC) published a first cautious forecast of the supply situation in the coming grain marketing year in its March 2020 edition. However, given the corona virus pandemic, the results are still shaky. The current price…

MARS estimates -1.8% lower winter grain yields - rapeseed yields +6.8% higher than last year The agricultural meteorological institute of the EU Commission (MARS) has published a 1st forecast for the expected grain and rapeseed yields in 2020 after evaluating the climate data to date. On average in the EU , winter cereals are expected to decline by…

COCERAL estimates that the EU rapeseed harvest is lower on the second try The European umbrella organization of grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) in its March issue has slightly revised its original estimate of the EU rapeseed harvest downwards to just 17.03 million t . Reduced acreage is not offset by the somewhat higher yield expectations…

COCERAL cuts 2020 EU harvest estimate with a focus on France and Great Britain In its latest edition, the European umbrella association of grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) cuts the 2020 EU grain harvest to just 301.7 million tonnes. Compared to the previous year, the result would be approx. 2% lower. The wheat harvest is expected to fall by 10…

2.GDT auction in March 2020: hamster purchases in the forward dates and reluctance to buy in the following months The second March 2020 auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ended for the 4th time in a row with a strong negative average result of -3 this time , 9% . A closer look reveals a hamster effect for the delivery month Apr. 2020, while…

DRV estimates German grain harvest at 45.16 million t The German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) dares a first forecast for the German grain harvest 2020 . The basis is the Federal Statistical Office's findings on the cultivation conditions of the winter seeds and estimates of the remaining area for the summer seeds. The income assumptions are based on the…

DRV: German rapeseed harvest 2020 higher than in the previous year, but significantly smaller than the multi-year average. The Deutsche Raiffeisenverband (DRV) has published a preview of the German rapeseed harvest. According to the Federal Statistical Office's calculations, the acreage is around 100,000 ha higher than the previous year at approx…

USDA: Oilseed Quotes Banished by Crude Oil Price Crisis In its March 2020 issue, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) only slightly increased global oilseed production as of the previous month. Global production is estimated at 580 million t, consumption remains unchanged at 498 million t. The surplus stocks increase from 114 to 117 million…

USDA: Virus-free global grain estimate - stock market prices with stabilizing tendencies The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has corrected the results of the previous months in a few areas in its monthly estimate of the global grain supply. However, the overall result remains virtually unchanged because the numbers cancel each other out…

Inventory in North America: More pigs in the USA, less in Canada Pig farming in North America has been around approx. 13% rose to almost 90 million animals. This resulted in the joint inventory at the turn of the year 2019/20 in the two neighboring countries. For comparison: 148 million pigs are largely unchanged in the EU-28 . The USA has the…

GDT auction in March 2020: comparatively moderate discounts - corona virus effect The first Mar. 20 campaign of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) ended again with a 1.2% reduction in average prices. But measured against price cuts in other agricultural markets as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the result is still moderate. This time, MMP did…

96. USDA Outlook Forum : Preview of Agricultural Markets 2020 On February 20/21, 2020, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) held its annual event on the prospects for agricultural markets in 2020. Renowned market experts and agricultural politicians will speak on this. The US wheat harvest is estimated at just under 50 million tons . The acreage…

(Text and graphics by Hans Jürgen Hölzmann, agricultural engineer, Meckenheim, February 21, 2020) Every year in February the buyers offer the new contracts for the bearing types for the "french raw material" such as B. Agria, Callenger and Fontane. Depending on the market situation, the conditions for fixed-price contracts change slightly from the…

Coceral estimates rapeseed harvest 2020 below multi-year average The European umbrella organization of grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) estimates the rapeseed harvest 2020 to be 2.4% higher than in the previous year, but remains far below the previous one with a quantity of 17.1 million t Results between 21 and 25 million tons. The estimators…

Coceral: First EU harvest estimate 2020: -2% compared to the previous year In its traditional early forecast, the European umbrella organization of the trade cooperatives for grain and oilseed estimates the EU harvest 2020 to be 2% lower than in the previous year. The main basis for the estimate is 0.86% higher acreage and weather-related lower…

EU pig count Nov / Dec 2019: fewer sows, fewer pigs The latest pig count in 25 EU Member States excluding Spain, Estonia and Slovakia showed a decrease in the EU-25 pig population by -0.6%. The sow numbers decrease by - 0.4% compared to the previous year. The results are very different in the individual Member States. The reduction in inventories…

GDT auction in the red for the second time: -2.9% butter fats with strong discounts The second Feb. 20 campaign of the Global Dairy Trade ended again with a 2.9% reduction in average prices. This time the butter fats performed disproportionately poorly. At 28,181 t, sales were lower than in the pre-auctions. The background to the poor results is…

USDA: Oilseed production confirmed at reduced level - prices pick up In its February issue, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) only slightly increased global oilseed production at the reduced level of the previous month's estimate. Global production is estimated at 577 million t, consumption at 498 million t. The surplus stocks increase to 114…

USDA: Febr issue of world grain estimate little changed - weak stock market prices The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) changed the result of the previous month only slightly in its monthly estimate of world grain supply . Expectations of major trend-setting corrections were disappointed. The total harvest is still estimated at 2,167 million…

GDT auction 04.Feb . 2020 : - 4.7% price increase of the Jan auctions reset again. The first Feb. 2020 auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) canceled the price upswing from the first two Jan.2020 auctions. In particular, the two milk powder products and pure butter have contributed significantly to the poor result. Only normal butter could hold…

MARS: Mild winter prevents frost resistance from developing - high wintering potential throughout Europe The European crop monitoring agency Mar no longer expects frost events by the end of January 2020 . The temperatures that are much too mild for a normal winter continue for the time being. That has consequences. At first, the winter grains have…

Oilseed Market: Declining Soybean Stocks - Weak Palm Oil and Rapeseed Prices The International Grains Council (IGC) has updated global soybean supplies . The worldwide decline is 5% compared to the previous year. The decisive cause is the US harvest , which was 20% worse last autumn at 97 million t . However, the Americans can largely make up for…

IGC slightly increased its estimate for global cereal supply 2019/20 International Grains Council (IGC) has updated in its monthly market report, the global grain supply. The 2019/20 harvest will be +1.3% higher to approx . Estimated 2,170 million tons compared to the previous year. Consumption is expected to increase by the same amount to 2,194…

GDT auction Jan 21, 2020: + 1.7% with ups and downs The second Jan 2020 auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) achieved a positive result on average, but the results for the individual products were quite different. Butterreinfett had to give back the surcharges it had recently reached. Skimmed milk powder also suffered losses. The repeated price…

Globally scarce pork supply - increasing world trade - high price expectations As a result of the ASP with a particularly negative impact on the Chinese pig population, an unusually scarce supply situation on the pork market is to be expected for 2020. Compared to the last "normal year 2018", the number of pigs at world level should be around 25%…

USDA Jan 2020 report: Oilseeds 2019/20 still below the previous year's level - less soy, even less rapeseed, moderate growth in palm oil, increasing sunflower seed. In its January 2020 issue, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates global oilseed production as unchanged from the previous month at 574 Mt. The result remains with approx…

USDA Jan20 report: Global grain supply cut 2019/20 In the first report of the new year, the U.S. Department of Agriculture cuts global grain supply to 28% final stock for consumption. The remaining stock level in this cereal year is only enough for 103 days, in previous years it was approx. 114 days. The global wheat harvest is cut by 1 million…

Dairy industry in Australia affected by drought and fire - global impact According to the latest estimates, the Australian milk production due to the drought and the fire will drop again in 2020 by 3 to 5% to 8.3 million tons. Just 5 years ago, production was approx. 10 million tons. However, there are considerable differences in the individual…

GDT auction 07. Dec. 2020: + 2.8% significant recovery in all products The first Jan 2020 auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) got off to a good start in the new year with positive results in almost all product areas. At 33,050 t, sales fell short of the pre-auctions. Skimmed milk powder and normal butter were the convincing winners. Whole milk…

Cattle count Nov. 2019: - 2% fewer pigs, -2.9% fewer sows compared to the previous year The preliminary results of the pig count in Nov 2019 showed a declining pig population of approx. 26 million animals, or approx. - 2% compared to the same date last year. Compared to the previous year, the current counting results were even 6% lower. The number…

Pig market in retrospect: falling EU production - China imports - strong US growth Starting in the spring of 2019, pig prices in Germany and the entire EU will rise by approx. € 1.50 / kg to the previous peak of € 2 / kg . At first glance, one would blame only the seasonal decline in the number of slaughter . However, this year the level was lower…

USDA: Preview of the 2020 World Milk Market The Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates in its semi-annual edition of the World Milk Market an increase in production of 1.64% for 2020 . India with a below-average +4.27, China with +2.58% and the USA with +1.74% have a major share in this. For the EU-28 , 0.39% is predicted. As a self-sufficient…

GDT auction Dec 17, 2019: - 5.1% for weak butter fats also a rough setback for milk powder The second Dec. 2019 auction of the Global Dairy Trade (GDT) has the mostly positive results with an average result of -5.1% of the pre-auctions canceled. At 35,748 t, sales were down on the previous month. Whole and skimmed milk powder were the two big…

Coceral estimates EU rapeseed harvest at 17 million t. - Reduced acreage and low yields In its most recent Dec. issue, the umbrella organization of the European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) has reduced the EU rapeseed harvest to approx. 17 million t estimated. The result is well below the multi-year average of 20 to 21 million t and far from…

Coceral: estimates EU harvest at approx. 308 million t - + 21% in the UK to -23% in Spain In its most recent estimate, the European cereals and oilseed traders' association (COCERAL) rates the EU grain harvest at 308 million tonnes significantly lower than the EU Commission (EU-COM) with 313 million t. The differences arise from different harvested…

USDA: Oilseeds 2019/20 below previous year's level - soybean prices little changed Palm oil rising The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates global oilseed production in its December issue slightly higher than in the previous month , but still remains at approx. 22 million tonnes or 3.7% below the previous year's level. The main part of the…

USDA: Dec World Grain Estimate Positive Confirmed - Prices Slightly Changed The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has confirmed the month-on- month estimate of world grain supply with a modest gain in the previous month . The total harvest is estimated at 2,197 million t . Consumption in the current fiscal year 2019/20 forecasts the USDA to 2,170…

Oilseeds: Rising palm oil prices as a buoyant force - OPEC decisions as reinforcement The market leader in the oil seed business Palm oil has been experiencing a strong upward phase for a good 2 months. Background is a weak harvest , which should have reached its peak in Oct.19. Instead, with the help of rising exports, the previously high…

GDT Auction 03. Dec.2019: - 0.5% - Butterfats dropped sharply - MMP slightly up The first Dec. 2019 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction has a rising average of -0.5% two pre-auctions can not be fully exploited. Sales at 36,258 t were 6.3% down on the previous month. The two butter fats were with approx. -5% the two big losers. Whole milk powder (VMP)…

Rapeseed prices wobble - palm oil prices are unstable at elevated levels - US soy yields The oilseed market continues to move at a slightly higher level with a steady ups and downs. Driving forces are the two market leaders soy and palm oil. The soybean prices are suffering from the Chinese import tariffs, which are being negotiated, but with…

Price-determining export competition between the EU and the Black Sea countries Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan have in recent years expanded their grain production with growing land, but even more through higher land yields. The Russian harvests are from approx. 98 million t in 2015/16 has grown to the current 117 million t. As domestic consumption…

IGC estimates global grain supply almost unchanged - wheat prices are picking up - corn more stable In its Nov. issue, the International Grains Council corrects the world grain supply for 2019/20 only in a few points compared to the previous month's estimate. The world harvest is rated at 2,162 million t. Consumption is estimated at 2,188 million t…

Competition for Chinese pork imports - EU ahead China will export 3 million tonnes of pork during the year 2019. Competent supplier countries are the EU, USA, Canada and Brazil. According to preliminary results, 1.95 million tonnes are expected to come from EU Member States. Germany and Spain are each with 0.5 million t. The remaining third share…

GDT Auction Nov. 19. +1.7% - Milk Powder Prices Are the Driving Factors The second Nov. 2019 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction has taken another leap with an average of +1.7%. Sales remained high at 37,968 t. The two milk powders VMP and MMP are the driving factors, while the two courses of milk fat have given way. Whole milk powder (VMP) , with an…

Oilseeds: Increased palm oil and increased crude oil prices allow for higher rapeseed prices; But the highlight has been crossed again. The world's scarce rapeseed harvest of just 68 million tonnes compared to previous 72 to 75 million tonnes should actually lead to high prices. Specifically in the EU, more than 5 million tonnes are missing to meet…

USDA estimates global oilseed production and consumption lower - inventories at a low level The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has cut global oilseeds production to 571 million tonnes from its month before in its Nov. 19 issue . Compared to the previous year , a 4.25 % reduction in production is assumed. The main contributor to the decline is…

Nov.-2019: USDA confirms global wheat harvest - cuts corn harvest - less supply than last year - Stock market prices fall slightly. The latest Nov. 19 estimate of the USA's global grain harvest (USDA) yielded few changes from the previous month's results. Overall, world harvests ( excluding rice) are down by 0.05% from the previous month to 2,160…

GDT Auction of Oct. 15 Good Claims - MMP prices continue to rise The first Nov. 2019 Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction has made a strong leap with an average of + 3.7%. At 38.681 t, sales remain at a high level. Obviously, there is enough demand. In particular, the two milk powder ranges attract attention. Whole milk powder (VMP) was able to break…

DRV: result of last crop estimate in 2019 below multi-year average - The German Raiffeisenverband (DRV) comes to 45 million t in its last estimate of the German grain harvest . The result is better than in the previous year with approx. 38 million t, but still remains. - 6% behind a 5-year average . Comparisons with the catastrophic year 2018…

MARS: Corn yields in the EU with a broad range from -13 to +21% on average The EU Agricultural Meteorological Institute (MARS) estimates this year's maize yields in a wide range from -13% in Italy to + 21 % in Romania to the 5-year average. The main causes provide different regional weather conditions during the growing season. This year's corn…

IGC estimates global oilseed supply lower - prices of vegetable oils increase The International Grains Council (IGC) cuts global soybean harvest to 341 million tonnes. That is about 5% less than last year. The decisive factor is the US harvest , which is down 20% compared to the previous year due to the delayed and partially prevented ordering work…