Angebot und Nachfrage im Goldmarkt

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Gold Sentiment Strong Despite
Price Volatility - Council
Market sentiment toward gold remained strong in the second
quarter of 2006 as total demand rose, in dollar terms, to
half-year and quarterly highs despite significant price volatility,
the World Gold Council said in a report Wednesday.
“Investment demand increased on the back of sustained
interest in gold-backed exchange-traded funds and related products,
as well as supportive economic and geopolitical conditions,
while changes in consumer attitudes combined with rising
disposable incomes in key markets saw consumers spend
more on gold jewelry than ever before - an amount marginally
higher than the previous record set in fourth quarter 2003,” the
Council said.
Identifiable investment demand for gold surged 19% in tonnage
terms compared with the same period last year to 130
metric tons, driving the total value of investment demand for
gold in the first half of 2006 up 40% to $6.1 billion, according
to figures compiled by GFMS Ltd. for the World Gold Council.
Gold jewelry demand rose 12% in value terms to $11.4 billion
for the quarter.
“Many consumers, manufacturers and retailers remained
sensitive to price volatility, showing a reluctance to commit to
purchasing that resulted in a 24% fall year on year in tonnage
terms to 562 metric tons,” the Council said.
This drop in gold jewelry demand in volume terms affected
overall demand for gold, which was down 16% to 802 metric
tons on the same period in 2005. The average price of gold for
the quarter was up by 47% year-on-year.
Strong demand from investors across almost all categories
drove investment to high levels in the first half.
In the second quarter total identifiable investment demand
for gold rose 19% to 130 metric tons and 75% in value terms
year on year, taking the total value of identifiable investment
for the first half of 2006 to $6.1 billion.
Increased investment brought added volatility to the price,
which, at an average of $627.71 for the quarter, was 13% higher
than in the first quarter and 47% higher than in second quarter
of 2005.
The Council, which sponsored a gold ETF that is traded on
the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol GLD,
said ETFs remain an attractive method through which both
retail and institutional investors choose to access gold, with
$789 million flowing into this investment category during the
second quarter of 2006.
Despite an increase in the supply of scrap, overall gold supply
was constrained in the second quarter of 2006 as a result of
lower central bank sales and substantial de-hedging by gold
mining companies, the Council reported.
Scrap supply increased 57% in tonnage terms on the same
period in 2005, largely due to price volatility.

INTERVIEW: Gold Jewelry
Purchases Wane Amid Volatility
Consumers are not likely to change their reluctance to commit
to purchases of gold jewelry as high metal prices mixed
with continued volatility remain a constant theme of the gold
market, George Milling-Stanley, manager of gold market analysis
for the World Gold Council, said.
In its latest review of the gold market, the World Gold
Council said that despite gold jewelry demand rising 12% in
value terms to $11.4 billion in the second quarter of 2006,
reluctant buyers led to a 24% fall in demand year-on-year in
tonnage terms to 562 metric tons.
“Price sensitive markets like India are very sensitive to
volatility and it would have to be a long while before that
changes,” said Milling-Stanley. “If the gold price went up in a
straight line then maybe you would see these consumers racing
to move back in but we are not seeing that.”
The gold market remains bound by volatility, which creates
uncertainty, and consumers tend to hold back in hopes of more
advantageous prices or due to fear of rising prices, Milling-
Stanley noted.
While many aspects of the gold market remain seasonal,
Milling-Stanley said that if prices remain volatile into the third
quarter of 2006 - which is traditionally a higher demand period
- then he expects to see a similar reaction by reluctant consumers.
One surprising factor of the World Gold Council’s report,
Milling-Stanley noted, is the pace of de-hedging seen in the
market as well as the low level of Central Bank gold sales.
Official sector sales declined in the second quarter, decreasing
63% year-on-year in tonnage terms, the World Gold
Council reported.
Sales under the Central Bank Gold Agreement, which ends
on Sept. 26, have only amounted to about 338 metric tons out
of the 500 metric ton limit as of Aug. 15.
“They need to sell about 162 metric tons to meet the ceiling
so if they sold that from now until the agreement end that
would be a big increase in the pace of sales seen over the past
10 months,” said Milling-Stanley.
But the agreement allows Central Banks to miss the target
so if the sales do not meet the target, Milling-Stanley said that
could be good for gold prices.
“Forward selling and Central Bank sales tend to be price
sensitive and sales will pick up when the price falls,” said
Milling-Stanley.
So the reluctance by the central banks to sell its gold could
signal to the market that the banks believe gold prices will continue
to rise.

Key facts on the the gold industry

PRODUCTION OF GOLD 2001-2005: (Troy OZ in '000s) Region 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ Africa 19,237 19,481 18,225 17,310 16,033 LAmerica 11,867 12,415 12,235 12,409 13,964 NAmerica 15,899 14,459 13,927 13,188 12,455 Asia 18,692 18,146 19,041 17,462 18,455 E.Europe 5,696 6,239 5,722 5,726 5,553 W.Europe 672 807 855 790 746 Oceania 11,647 11,024 11,174 11,074 11,019 Others 1,021 1,200 1,197 1,270 0 Total 84,731 83,771 82,811 79,229 78,225 TOP FIVE GOLD PRODUCERS: COMPANY PRODUCTION* % of World (IN TROY OZ) production ------- ------------- 1. Barrick Gold Corp <ABX.TO> 8,465,970 10.66 2. Newmont Mining <NEM.N> 6,653,808 8.38 3. Anglogold Ashanti <ANGL.J> 5,860,943 7.38 4. Gold Fields <GFIJ.J> 4,678,835 5.89 5. Harmony <HARJ.J> 2,668,000 3.36 TROY OZ=31.1035 grammes; * Estimates for 2006) NOTABLE TAKEOVERS LEADING TO 2006: (In USD) DATE TARGET CO NATIONALITY ACQUIRER NATIONALITY DEAL VALUE 2001 Homestake: U.S. Barrick Canada $2.28 billion 2002 Franco-Nevada Canada Newmont Mining U.S. $2.82 billion 2002 Normandy Mining Australia Newmont Mining U.S. $2.99 billion 2002 AurionGold Australia Placer Dome Canada $949 million 2003 African Rainbow South Africa Harmony South Africa $988.6 million 2004 Ashanti Ghana AngloGold South Africa $1.538 billion 2005 Wheaton River Canada Goldcorp Canada $1.979 billion 2006 Feb 24 Western Silver Canada Glamis U.S. $1.048 billion Mar 15 Placer Dome Canada Barrick Gold Canada $11.67 billion Jul 24 Polyus Gold Russia Interros Russia $1.97 billion Aug 16 Viceroy Canada Yamana Canada $515 mln Aug 31 Glamis Gold U.S. Goldcorp Canada $8.637 billion Sep 14 Cambior Inc Canada IAMGOLD Canada $1.23 billion TOP GOLD CONSUMERS: According to the World Gold Council, jewellery accounts for nearly 70 percent of total demand. India is the world's largest consumer of gold jewellery, accounting for 18 percent of global consumption. The United States is the second largest gold jewellery consumer, accounting for 14 percent followed by Saudi Arabia, China and United Arab Emirates. Gold, known for its malleability, ductility, reflectivity, resistance to corrosion and ability as a thermal and electrical conductor, is used in a wide variety of electronics to the tune of 300 tonnes per annum followed by about 60 tonnes in dental applications. Sources: Reuters; World Gold council (http://www.gold.org); dealogic and companies