Goldman Sachs: Milliardengewinne

Korrektur der Überschrift - Einnahmen + 13.8 Milliarden US-$ / Gewinn 3.44 Milliarden US-$

Goldman Sachs ist und bleibt wirklich der Branchenprimus. Besonders beeindruckend finde ich dieses: "Net revenues in Trading and Principal Investments + 51 % im Vergleich zum ersten Quartal 2009", d.h., Goldman ist im Eigenhandel weiterhin saustark.

Warren B. wird sich freuen, bald weitere 5 Mrd. US$ in GS investieren zu dürfen, an so einer Geldmaschine hätte ich auch gerne einen fetten Anteil.

Das Erfolg etliche Neider schafft, wundert nicht. Mittlerweile hat sich die Fraktion der Verschwörungstheoretiker (Ihr wisst schon, 9/11 geschah im US-Regierungsauftrag etc.) auch Goldman vorgeknöpft: http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/28816321/the_great_american_bubble_machine

Nochmal eine detaillierte Aufschlüsselung des Quartals, interessant ist dabei, das GS diesen Rekordgewinn mit deutlich geringerem Kredithebel realisiert hat:

Wall Street's meltdown fueled the most profitable quarter ever at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which snatched business away from weakened rivals and churned out huge trading gains by revving up risk taking.

With competitors such as Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Bear Stearns Cos. gone, and others like Citigroup Inc. flailing, Goldman appears to be pulling off one of the biggest market-share grabs in Wall Street history.

Net income in the second quarter was $3.44 billion, or $4.93 a share -- more than Goldman earned in all of 2008, when it was hammered by the financial crisis. Analysts had expected strong earnings, but were surprised by how much the firm exceeded expectations.

The primary earnings driver was wider profit margins on the buying and selling of securities, in part due to fewer competitors.

Goldman's resurgence, including a 33% jump in money set aside for compensation and benefits in the year's first half, could invite criticism that it is benefiting too much from the government's Wall Street rescue. Its quarter, on the other hand, could be viewed as evidence that the government's intervention has succeeded in returning some firms to solid ground.

Goldman executives were cautious Tuesday about whether the company can keep churning out such profits.

"We are not feeling great about the economy," said Goldman Chief Financial Officer David Viniar. "But our clients need to trade and need to hedge and need risk-management services, which gives us business."

The gains -- net revenue was up 46% to $13.76 billion -- bolster Goldman's reputation as one of the savviest on Wall Street.

They also underscore the emergence of a handful of large U.S. financial institutions that are likely to profit mightily from the wreckage left by the financial crisis.
Next Up

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is expected to report strong quarterly results on Thursday that include a lift from retail branches scooped up when Washington Mutual Inc.'s banking operations failed last year.

The New York bank is increasingly flexing its muscles with the U.S. government, including opposing parts of the Obama administration's efforts to regulate derivatives.

J.P. Morgan and Goldman recently freed themselves from the limitations on pay and other business practices that came with the Troubled Asset Relief Program, by repaying federal loans they got last fall.

"Right now, [Goldman is] one of only a few people on the beach, so they're getting all the girls," said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University and a former Goldman partner. "It's about to get more crowded, though." Competing firms, he notes, also have paid back the government, including Morgan Stanley.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected Goldman to earn $3.48 a share.

Its actual profit blew through that target by about 40%. Goldman's shares, which had risen sharply over the past week in anticipation of its earnings, rose 22 cents to $149.66 in 4 p.m. New York Stock Exchange composite trading on Tuesday.

Goldman's equity and fixed-income, currency and commodities desks posted record results and accounted for 75% of the firm's net revenue.

Trading in credit products, interest-rate products and currencies was particularly strong, as was stock trading in general.

While Goldman is perhaps best known for profitable proprietary bets made using its own capital, it said Tuesday that the bulk of its quarterly profit came from increased client trading in various product lines.

It makes money charging commissions and by taking so-called principal risk, buying a security from a client and then selling it at a profit.

The firm also logged gains from a number of investments, including a $948 million gain from its stake in Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Ltd. That helped offset a 15% year-over-year drop in investment-banking net revenue, and a loss of $499 million from various commercial-real-estate investments.
Paydays Ahead

The strong quarter puts Goldman employees in line for an impressive payday when the firm doles out bonuses in January. So far, the firm has set aside $11.36 billion for compensation and benefits during the year's first six months, enough to pay each employee $386,429 for the period.

If Goldman continues to accrue compensation at that rate, employees are on track to make an average of about $770,000 each, the largest per-person payout in Goldman's history.

Such payouts would come in the wake of an uproar over the past year about huge pay packages on Wall Street.

Mr. Viniar said Tuesday that Goldman has a "pay-for-performance culture," and its employees should expect that if 2009 ends as it has begun, they will be paid well.

Goldman ramped up its risk-taking during the quarter. By the end of the quarter, its VAR, or "value at risk," had risen by 33% from the year-ago level, to $245 million, up from $240 million in the previous quarter. VAR represents an estimate of how much the firm could lose in a single day.

Less Leverage

At the same, Goldman reduced its leverage ratio, a measure of how much it is using borrowed money to magnify bets. That ratio fell to 14.2 at the end of the quarter, from 27.9 at the beginning of 2008.

"Goldman produced these results on half the leverage, and no one believed they could," said Tom Marsico, founder of Marsico Capital Management, which owns 13 million Goldman shares.

Data show Goldman has gained market share as rivals like Lehman have disappeared. In the second quarter, the firm ranked No. 2 in revenue derived from global equity underwriting, with a 12% market share, trailing only J.P. Morgan, according to data provider Dealogic.

In the second quarter of 2007, Goldman had ranked No. 5 in that category.

Leading such stock deals often leads to more business for trading desks.

Goldman's stock-trading division posted net revenue of $3.2 billion for the quarter, up 59% from the first quarter, and 28% from the quarter ended May 30, 2008.

Goldman also picked up some business from clients that had used competitors in the past. U.S. Bancorp tapped Goldman Sachs as one of its lead underwriters on a stock offering in May, the first time it had used Goldman in that role in more than five years, Dealogic data showed.

The banking firm had used Citigroup and Lehman Brothers, among others, on similar deals.

Quelle: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124755439431437571.html

Ich hatte in meinem zweiten Beitrag auf die Verschwörungsnarren hingewiesen, die sich jetzt auf Goldman stürzen. Dieses Spektrum ist breit gefächert, von links über esoterisch-unpolitisch bis rechts. Nun hat sich auch die Nationalzeitung GS angenommen:

https://www.national-zeitung.de/shop/page/1?sessid=YxfYSklmROE4IDK7dQLVAR6xQDb4pKRPCmpiuWzcZ6dEm20AhYWTe1DZ1huGinkM

Wer fehlt noch im Boot? Richtig, der "Godfather" der Verschwörungsjunkies, M. Bröckers nämlich (http://www.zweitausendeins.de/writersblog/broeckers/). Bin mir aber sicher, das er bald auch mit an Bord ist.

@ JRM [#4]
"interessant ist dabei, das GS diesen Rekordgewinn mit deutlich geringerem Kredithebel realisiert hat"

Hierzu fällt mir spontan ein, daß den Goldmännern im Laufe der jüngeren Vergangenheit einige Konkurrenten abhanden gekommen sind. Nicht nur die, die gar nicht mehr da sind oder den Eigenhandel eingestellt haben, auch die, die mit Übernahmen beschäftigt sind. Möglicherweise läßt sich daher nun leichter verdienen ...

@ Asamat [#6]

Jawohl, siehe auch "Right now, [Goldman is] one of only a few people on the beach, so they're getting all the girls," said Roy Smith, a finance professor at New York University and a former Goldman partner".

@ Asamat [#6]

Meiner Meinung nach ist ein hoher Kredithebel gar nicht nötig, da die Bid/Offer Spreads total Explodiert sind.
Ausserdem: Goldman ist sehr gut vernetzt in der Welt, einige Konkurrenten sind weg vom Markt oder mit sich selbst beschäftigt. Da kann man schon bei bestimmen Geschäften die Preise diktieren.

Hinzu kommt das Moral Hazard: Alles was wir machen kann nur gut gehen, wenn nicht werden wir halt vom Steuerzahler rausgehauen.Das trifft aber auch auf die Wettbewerber zu.

Und das Goldman seine Staatshilfen zurückzahlen konnte,lag nur an den fetten Zahlungen die sie von AIG bekommen haben, also auch vom Steuerzahler. Die Deutsche konnte so auch einen Totalverlust von 8 Mrd Euro umgehen (was übrigens fast 30 % des Ek gewesen wäre)

Ist das schon bekannt - ein Vortrag von L. Blankfein, gut 3 Monate alt. Er fasst nochmal zusammen, was s.E. die Krise ausgelöst hat und was besser gemacht werden sollte. Teil 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOPqA9Ln_Vw

...das schlimme ist, dass das System offensichtlich einfach nur mit "patches" über die Zeit gerettet wird und keine grundlegenden Änderungen erfolgen. Die Quittung dafür wird kommen...

Es gab zum Thema Capitalism 2.0 & Banken (vor ein paar Monaten) auch einen interessanten Kommentar von Taleb:

http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/tenprinciples.pdf

Insb. Punkte 3,6 und 10 ... :-)

ciao,
zentrader

@ zentrader [#10]

Bin nicht so der Nassim Fan, der produziert sich zu ungeniert selbst, siehe auch Punkt 3 letzter Satz ("Instead, find the smart people whose hands are clean"). Ein Schelm, wer hier böses denkt.

Ich bewundere halt den gnadenlosen Opportunismus von Goldman Sachs, der hier http://www.forbes.com/2009/07/16/goldman-sachs-banking-business-wall-street.html nochmal von R. Lenzner beschrieben wird. Z.B., das GS ca 4 Mrd US$ mit Wetten gegen Subprime basierte Papiere verdiente, während sie Merrill etc. in den Abgrund rissen. Und das "lustige" dabei: Stan O'Neal, der damalige Merrill Chef, impfte seinen Truppen immer ein, das Goldman das große Vorbild zu sein habe.

@ JRM [#11]

GS hat was. Das meint auch Harald Schmitt

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wKz0LV2EUhk&feature=related

Inzwischen ist sie aber bei der Citigroup glaub ich.

@ gautama2 [#12]

Kenn ich, fand ich aber irgendwie schlapp.

@ JRM [#13]

Die Frau?

@ gautama2 [#14]

Nö, den Gag als solchen.

Am Mittwoch, dem 29.07.09, findet in München um 19:30 eine Diskussionsrunde statt - u.a. mit zwei Ex-Goldmännern: Paul Achleitner und Theodor Weimer. Die FDP veranstaltet das ganze im "Le Meridien" in der Bayerstrasse.

Würde mich freuen, wenn ein paar TMWler dabei sind. http://www.fdp-muenchen.de/?newwpID=92706&MttgSession=d1f895c7dbe2c2bd0f7f0a3cab2e6700

"Is Goldman Sachs evil? Or just too good?"

http://nymag.com/news/business/58094/