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Help from a friend After the now-typical style of discreet agent intervention failed to have more than a temporary effect in Asia morning trade on Tuesday, the BOJ wheeled out some heavier artillery, buying USDJPY via the New York Fed in several rounds of intervention from around 14:25 GMT in the New York morning. The MOF confirmed that Japan had intervened via the Fed, while US officials declined to comment. This marks the first time the BOJ has been in via a foreign central bank since June 28, 2002 and is also the first instance of overt, direct intervention since then. Clearly the authorities felt the speed of the recent downmove and approach of Y110 warranted a more aggressive show of force and they may have wanted to enlist the Fed’s assistance to signal to the market that the recent G7 statement does not preclude BOJ intervention in the face of sharp moves lower in USDJPY. While the intervention was conducted with Japanese money and does not reflect Treasury policy as such, most in the market will suspect that the Fed would not have been involved if the Treasury were adamantly opposed to it. Whatever the motivation, reaction to the move was relatively muted when one considers how long yen the speculative market is thought to be. USDJPY traded from levels near Y110.30 to highs near Y111.80, stopping well short of levels above Y112 achieved by the earlier round of covert BOJ buying in the Asian morning.
Meanwhile, the MOF confirmed Tuesday evening that the BOJ had conducted a surprisingly large Y4.46 trln in intervention in the month of September, the largest monthly intervention yet. Most of the operations likely occurred in early September, with the BOJ thought to have been active in the market following Snow’s visit to Tokyo but before the immediate runup to the G7 meeting. Still, the size of the operation was unexpectedly large considering the BOJ was thought to be out of the market for much of the month.
On the economics front, data was mixed on Tuesday, with household consumption (+2.2%) and unemployment rate (5.1%) coming in much better than expected, but industrial production falling more than consensus by –0.5%. Industrial production has been negative for two months, but our economics team thinks the outlook from here is quite positive, especially in the context of a reasonable
rebound in household consumption. Focus now shifts to the key quarterly Tankan survey released today at 23:50 GMT. We expect the headline large manufacturers’ diffusion index to break into positive territory for the first time since Q4 2000 and our +2 forecast is a bit better than the 0 consensus. Data in line with our forecast would likely support expectations for continued portfolio inflows into Japan and would go some way towards making Japanese authorities more comfortable with moderate further yen gains. We maintain our 3-month USDJPY forecast at 110, mindful of the risk that some combination of intervention and better U.S. data fuels a shortcovering bounce towards Y115 in the interim.
Geschrieben von newstrader. am Di., 30.09.2003 - 23:47
Hallo.
Die heutigen Interventionen waren allem Anschein nach "nur" kosmetischer Natur.
Ciao
Franjo
Artikel von Daniel Katzive (UBS FX Strategy)
Help from a friend After the now-typical style of discreet agent intervention failed to have more than a temporary effect in Asia morning trade on Tuesday, the BOJ wheeled out some heavier artillery, buying USDJPY via the New York Fed in several rounds of intervention from around 14:25 GMT in the New York morning. The MOF confirmed that Japan had intervened via the Fed, while US officials declined to comment. This marks the first time the BOJ has been in via a foreign central bank since June 28, 2002 and is also the first instance of overt, direct intervention since then. Clearly the authorities felt the speed of the recent downmove and approach of Y110 warranted a more aggressive show of force and they may have wanted to enlist the Fed’s assistance to signal to the market that the recent G7 statement does not preclude BOJ intervention in the face of sharp moves lower in USDJPY. While the intervention was conducted with Japanese money and does not reflect Treasury policy as such, most in the market will suspect that the Fed would not have been involved if the Treasury were adamantly opposed to it. Whatever the motivation, reaction to the move was relatively muted when one considers how long yen the speculative market is thought to be. USDJPY traded from levels near Y110.30 to highs near Y111.80, stopping well short of levels above Y112 achieved by the earlier round of covert BOJ buying in the Asian morning.
Meanwhile, the MOF confirmed Tuesday evening that the BOJ had conducted a surprisingly large Y4.46 trln in intervention in the month of September, the largest monthly intervention yet. Most of the operations likely occurred in early September, with the BOJ thought to have been active in the market following Snow’s visit to Tokyo but before the immediate runup to the G7 meeting. Still, the size of the operation was unexpectedly large considering the BOJ was thought to be out of the market for much of the month.
On the economics front, data was mixed on Tuesday, with household consumption (+2.2%) and unemployment rate (5.1%) coming in much better than expected, but industrial production falling more than consensus by –0.5%. Industrial production has been negative for two months, but our economics team thinks the outlook from here is quite positive, especially in the context of a reasonable
rebound in household consumption. Focus now shifts to the key quarterly Tankan survey released today at 23:50 GMT. We expect the headline large manufacturers’ diffusion index to break into positive territory for the first time since Q4 2000 and our +2 forecast is a bit better than the 0 consensus. Data in line with our forecast would likely support expectations for continued portfolio inflows into Japan and would go some way towards making Japanese authorities more comfortable with moderate further yen gains. We maintain our 3-month USDJPY forecast at 110, mindful of the risk that some combination of intervention and better U.S. data fuels a shortcovering bounce towards Y115 in the interim.
@ Franjo,
Du schreibst: "Die heutigen Interventionen waren allem Anschein nach "nur" kosmetischer Natur"
Meinst Du die Kursbewegung um 16.30 bis 16.55 h? Hier wurde der Yen zum USD stärker.
Ah, ich sehe, Dein Beitrag ist von 12.34 h. Dann müssen es wohl die Zacken um ca. 09.15 h sein, wo die Interventionen stattfanden.
Bei dem von mir vermuteten Zeitpunkt um 16.30 h hatte die BOJ wohl nichts mehr entgegenzusetzen.
Grüße
Albert
Da die Bank von Japan soviele Yen drucken kann wie sie lustig ist, kann sie jedem Anstieg des Yen immer beliebig viel entgegensetzen wenn sie mag!
Andersrum wäre es schon schwerer.