Japan-Wochenausblick: Aktien / FX / JGB´s

Hallo zusammen.

Anbei die "Nikkei" Wochenprognosen für den japanischen Aktien- und FX-Markt.

Viele Grüsse

Franjo

(Quelle: Nikkei)

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Sunday, July 27, 2003

Weekly Stock Outlook: Prices To Mark Time After Rally

TOKYO (Nikkei)--The Nikkei Stock Average will likely move narrowly between 9,500 and 10,000 now that the market appears to have factored in prospects for higher corporate earnings in the current business year, many analysts say.

The index seems unlikely to top 10,000 even though there is a high level of investor interest in the market because major technology companies are due to announce their business results for April-June this week.

Given the keen interest of individual investors in selective buying, downside risk appears limited. Investors, however, will likely become more choosy depending on the earnings results made public this week.

Fujitsu Ltd. (6702) is scheduled to announce its April-June earnings on Tuesday, Toshiba Corp. (6502) and Matsushita Electric Industrial Co. (6752) on Wednesday and Hitachi Ltd. (6501), NEC Corp. (6701) and Pioneer Corp. (6773) on Thursday.

Technology issues have been the driving force behind the recent market rally, which started after share prices hit a postbubble low in April, and it is believed they must rise further if the Nikkei average is to climb above the 10,000 level.

NEC stock, for example, had risen 140% by last Friday from its low for the year on expectations of higher profits for fiscal 2003. Since the projected increase in corporate earnings has already been factored into the stock price to a considerable extent, a further price rise looks unlikely unless there is particularly good news about the company, many analysts say.

Upward mobility might suffer also because foreign buying, another important factor behind the market's recent gains, could decrease due to the summer holidays.

The U.S. stock market has rebounded on upbeat economic data after stalling for some time. But the market's ascent could be curbed if American GDP data for April-June, due out Thursday, does not meet expectations.

On the domestic front, market participants are waiting for the preliminary June data on the industrial output index, scheduled to be released Wednesday.

Market players are expected to base their investment decisions on the earnings figures that are announced by technology firms this week. Sony Corp. (6758) stock has already run into active selling after releasing a poor earnings report for April-June last Thursday.

In contrast, Matsushita Electric stock attracted buying on investor optimism about the company's digital home appliance business. The firm's market capitalization topped that of Sony late last week for the first time in four years and one month.

Individual investors will likely target low- and medium-cap issues as well as shares in firms that are expected to receive financial assistance from the Industrial Revitalization Corp. of Japan (IRCJ).

(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Sunday edition)

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Sunday, July 27, 2003

Weekly Forex Outlook: Conflicting Views Suggest Narrow Dollar-Yen Movement

TOKYO (Nikkei)--Dollar-yen exchange rates will move narrowly this week if the conflicting opinions of market experts are averaged out.

Some traders say Japanese exporters will purchase yen with dollars, while others say the dollar will be bought if upcoming U.S. economic indicators turn out better than expected. The consensus among market participants is that the dollar will trade at 117-121 yen this week.

Some observers say Japanese exporters are preparing to buy the yen and sell the greenback ahead of their summer holidays, even if the yen strengthens above the level they previously targeted.

Forex traders are expected to closely watch U.S. data scheduled for release this week such as the April-June GDP and July employment figures.

Many will refrain from aggressive trading ahead of the data's release, so the market will likely be directionless in the first half of the week.

The bond market is also expected to show mixed moves this week. Medium-term bonds, such as two- and five-year instruments, are firming. But trading of 10- and 20-year bonds is unlikely to grow active due to the upcoming auction of 10-year government bonds next month and because Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa has unveiled a plan to issue ultra-long-term government bonds with maturities of 20 years or longer possibly this autumn.

(The Nihon Keizai Shibmun Sunday edition)