Rohöl: Verhandlungen zwischen US-Petrofirmen und Saudi-Arabien
Hallo zusammen.
Der folgendene Artikel ist sehr interessant. Es scheint dadurch in der Analyse sehr unwahrscheinlich, dass es zu einem Angriff der USA auf den Irak kommen wird.
Warum ? Kurz vor dem Abschluss solch wichtiger Verhandlungen zwischen US-Ölfirmen mit dem einflussreichsten arabischen Staat, wird man sich diesen nicht unnötig zum Feind machen. Saudi Arabien ist gegen Militärschläge.
Macht Euch ein Bild davon.....und.....wenn die Kriegsgefahr gebannt ist, wird der "Risikoabschlag" an den Weltbörsen keine Rolle mehr spielen. Siehe DAX der letzten 2 Wochen.
Wenn es dann zu dem "Flaschenhalseffekt" kommt, sollte man nicht überrascht sein.
;o)
Viele Grüsse
Euer
Franjo
.....Hier der Artikel.....
_______
( Quelle: http://www.gulf-news.com )
Saudi gas negotiations in final stages, say companies
Dubai |By Nadim Kawach | 17-10-2002
Negotiations between Saudi Arabia and international oil firms to launch one of the biggest gas contracts in history have entered their final stages and a successful conclusion would be in the interest of the Gulf kingdom, negotiators said yesterday.
Economists are optimistic the two sides could finally strike a deal following nearly two years of negotiations on what is known as the Gas Initiative launched by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah during a visit to the U.S. in 1998.
"If the negotiations are successful, the contract will involve Shell and other International Oil Companies (IOCs) in the development of the kingdom's gas resources," said Floris Ansingh, president of Shell companies in Saudi Arabia.
"The gas will fuel power, water and petrochemical plants as well as to fee into the domestic gas network for eventual use by industrial users....we are almost at the end of the negotiating process and we are sure that the decision, whichever way it goes, will be in the best interests of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia," he told Shell in the Middle East Magazine.
The RoyalDutch/Shell is heading one of the consortia involved in tough negotiations with Saudi Arabia to pump at least $25 billion over a period of around seven years into the kingdom's gas sector to tap its nearly six trillion cubic metres of natural gas.
Royal Dutch Shell's consortium is tasked with the development of the remote desert Shaybah field with an estimated investment of $5 billion. BP Amoco and Phillips Petroleum were chosen in the South Ghawar Group, TotalFina Elf and Conoco in the Shaybah consortium and Occidental and Marathon in the Red Sea Group.
Exxon Mobil, which is leading two of the three consortia, won the lion's share in the initial signing last year as it was assigned to develop the South Ghawar field, requiring an investment of around $15 billion, and the Red Sea Field, which needs $5 billion.
Subsequent negotiations on a final deal, shrouded with secrecy, have been bogged down by differences on the expected return from those ventures and other issues, including the real size of the gas reserves in those fields and legal guarantees sought by the firms.
Industry sources said the companies were also asking for bigger concession areas to ensure there will be enough gas to cover their massive investments and make high profits. Differences also covered the extent of influence by the state-owned Aramco in such investments as those companies are demanding almost full autonomy.
"The Gas Initiative is vital for Saudi Arabia but will also benefit the oil companies...as you see, it is a mutual interest and both sides should reach a compromise to serve their mutual interests," Said Al Shaikh, chief economist at the Saudi National Commercial Bank, said.
"When the Kingdom announced that initiative, it was a rational decision because it recognised the strong need for such investments...securing its water and power needs as well as expanding its petrochemical sector has become a top priority...let us hope that the negotiations will reach a successful conclusion."
Official Saudi figures showed the kingdom's present developed associated gas resources could meet its needs until 2007, after which new investments are required.
Without such investments, the world's dominant oil power could suffer from a severe shortage in natural gas and it would not be able to cater for its power and water needs. Gas is also needed to fuel new petrochemical ventures, in which an estimated $15 billion are expected to be pumped until 2010.
"They have to get moving now...a water and power shortage is not a joke and those investments will attract other investments," Shaikh said.
Economists said the Gas Initiative would contribute to a 1.5-2 per cent growth in the flagging domestic economy and help tackle the festering unemployment problem as it will create jobs in those direct projects and other indirect ventures expected to materialise afterwards.
"It is time to take a decisive decision and put that deal into action whether with the existing consortia or a new group," Saudi economist Ihsan Bu Hlaika said.
Grüsse Euch,
zuerst ein dickes Lob für das neue "Chartbuch". Lässt sich Klasse bedienen.
Ich möchte gerne nochmal auf den Artikel aufmerksam machen. Der Rohölpreis sinkt. Warum wohl.......;o)
Machts gut.
Ciao
Euer
Franjo
Ganz frisch von heute diese News:
Saudis see quick response to gas offer
Riyadh |Reuters | 23-10-2002
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Saudi Arabia said yesterday it expects a swift response to its final offer on a $25 billion gas opening but would press ahead with the landmark project even if it fails to agree commercial terms with foreign oil majors.
Saudi Oil Minister Ali Al Naimi said the kingdom had offered "rewarding and just" terms to seven oil multinationals after more than a year of talks to develop the huge gas reserves and expected a response within weeks.
Riyadh made some concessions in September on contract details in a bid to break an impasse over the amount of gas on offer and rates of return, but Western executives have said the offer had not gone far enough to guarantee success.
"There are many alternatives (to the foreign oil companies) in terms of implementing the initiative," Naimi told delegates to an economic conference here.
"But we want, God willing, to complete this current initiative (as it is) and the aim now is to attract investment. Besides, we have spent four years and we want to see a positive outcome to this," Naimi said.
For oil majors seeking access to the kingdom's upstream gas, off-limits since nationalisation in the 1970s, it has been an uphill battle ever since Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz unveiled the outlines of the integrated gas scheme nearly four years ago.
Analysts say any setbacks to the kingdom's initiative will only delay efforts to liberalise its economy and create jobs for the huge number of unemployed Saudis.
Naimi said the three schemes to develop gas and build petrochemical, power and desalination plants can move ahead by "other means involving competition ... and (Saudi) Aramco has not stopped its exploration activities, or expanding the gas grid or building plants. We are very keen on this."
The latest Saudi offer attempted to address a prime gripe of the oil majors, that they are being short-changed on gas, by offering access to other acreage outside the Saudi Arabian Reserved Area (SARA) if adequate volumes are not found in the acreage now allotted them within five years, sources said.
Riyadh was also said to have responded to company concerns over the expected rate of return on investments.
Western oil companies had yet to send their formal response, expected by November 1, to the Saudi offer contained in a letter sent by Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal, a driving force behind the gas initiative, a Saudi source close to the negotiations said.
A Western executive said the lack of access to SARA remained a major concern and that nothing had been offered to sweeten the rates of return. But the Saudi source suggested there would be little leeway on the Saudi side.
"The companies may have had unrealistic expectations to start with," the Saudi source said.
Failure to bring the current group of foreign oil companies on board could push the kingdom into looking at alternative ways to implement the projects using the Saudi private sector as a main driver, the source said.
The government could offer the power and water projects independently, with companies like Saudi industrial giant Sabic bringing in foreign joint venture partners.
Even the upstream portion of the initiative could be offered independently to the private sector and other specialised companies, the source said, with the state oil company Saudi Aramco acting as an off-taker for the gas, relieving companies involving in its exploration and development from marketing.
"The upstream ... can be offered separately can be done as a typical upstream offering and can be very competitive and can be very attractive," the source said.
As to whether the Kingdom could re-offer the gas initiative in open bidding to a whole new set of international oil companies if the current talks failed, the source said no policy decision had been taken to do so.
@ Franjo
Danke für das Lob. Im Rohöl-Chart fällt der Kontraktbestand (blaue Linie) am letzten Tag steil nach unten ab.
Den Programmfehler haben wir beseitigt.
Sie können gerne die Charts auf allen Foren Ihrer Wahl einstellen.
Hallo zusammen,
bemerkenswert ist die Tatsache, dass sich der Crude Oil Preis ziemlich genau mit erscheinen dieser Nachrichten nach unten bewegt hat.
Man hört allerdings im allgemeinen nur vom Abbau der Kriegs-Risikoprämie, nichts über das Agreement.
Viele Grüsse
Euer
Franjo
Hallo zusammen,
ich würde da doch ein bißchen widersprechen. Zum einen handelt es sich um einen GAS Deal, keinen Crude-Deal. Völlig unterschiedliche Preisbildung, wie man z.Z. an der Divergenz sieht: Crude sinkt (Abbau der Kriegsprämie, steigende Lagerbestände), Gas steigt (überdurchschnittlich kalte Temperaturen in USA und gefallene Lagerbestände wegen Sturm-Störungen). Die Konvergenz der Kontrakte ist immer nur im grösseren Zeitrahmen zu finden. Gas und Benzin sind stark Jahreszeiten zyklisch, Öl nicht so sehr.
Zum anderen: Warum sollte ausgerechnet dieser Deal kriegsverhindernd sein, wo doch westliche Firmen ohne Ende Verträge schon haben, die im Kriegsfall unter Beschuss stünden? Natürlich will die herrschende Klasse der Saudis möglichst keine Gefährdung ihrer Position, aber diese Verträge haben nach meiner Meinung wenig damit zu tun.
Tatsächlich glaube ich allerdings auch, dass Crude weiter fallen wird, aber aus anderen Gründen.
Beste Grüsse,
Berliner