Schwellenbörse Indien: Zeit zur Rückkehr an den Markt

HSBC: "Zeit für eine Rückkehr an den indischen Aktienmarkt"

Fondsprofessionell.de (17.07.08) - Nach der heftigen Korrektur in der ersten Jahreshälfte ist Sanjiv Duggal, Fondsmanager des HSBC GIF Indian Equity, für den indischen Markt aktuell wieder positiv gestimmt. Ende 2007 hatte er für den indischen Aktienmarkt eine negative Entwicklung vorausgesehen und kurzfristig zum Rückzug geraten – und Recht behalten: Vom 7. Januar bis zum 1.

(Quelle und ausführlich weiter lesen: http://www.fondsprofessionell.de/redsys/newsText.php?sid=127242&limit_offset=)

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=aw7jpTL.f_yA&refer=india

Jhunjhunwala, India’s Buffett, Sees Sensex Rising (Update2)

By Pooja Thakur

Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Rakesh Jhunjhunwala, who predicted Indian stocks would fall two months before the benchmark Sensitive Index peaked in January, says the worst may be over for Asia’s fourth-biggest equity market.

Stocks are poised to recover from their biggest annual decline because companies in the benchmark index are valued at less than half their four-year average, said Jhunjhunwala, named India’s Warren Buffett by Forbes magazine in March. Investors will look beyond last month’s terror attacks because the country is growing faster than almost every other market, he said.

“India will see the mother of all bull runs in the next four or five years, boosted by double-digit economic growth and increased investment by domestic investors, including pension and insurance funds,” Jhunjhunwala, 48, said as he smoked a Cohiba Cuban cigar in an interview at the South Mumbai office of his company, Rare Enterprises, a name that combines Ra from Rakesh and Re from Rekha, his wife.

The Sensex rose 7 percent since the three-day attacks that started Nov. 26 in Mumbai, trimming this year’s decline to 54 percent. The slump left the index valued at 9.6 times the earnings of its 30 companies, compared with a four-year average of 19.2, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The measure fell 0.1 percent to 9,645.46 today.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index of equities in 24 developing nations trades for 6.8 times earnings.

‘Great Potential’

“Indians as a society are not going to be bogged down by these terror attacks; the nation’s tolerance, skill set and democracy will prevail,” said Jhunjhunwala, whose office is a two-minute walk from the Oberoi hotel, one of the locations where terrorists killed 163 people in about 60 hours. He was stuck in the office all night with seven employees, eating Nestle SA’s Maggi noodles and popcorn.

“We will see a period of great uncertainty but great potential too,” Jhunjhunwala said. He’s holding on to investments including Titan Industries Ltd., India’s largest watchmaker, which fell 47 percent this year, and Aptech Ltd., a computer training company that lost 84 percent.

His other holdings include Praj Industries Ltd., an Indian maker of equipment for sugar mills and distilleries that dropped 75 percent this year, Lupin Ltd., a manufacturer of tuberculosis medication, which declined 12 percent. He also owns shares of Crisil Ltd., a Standard & Poor’s unit that has fallen 47 percent.

Economic Growth

India’s economy grew at a faster-than-forecast 7.6 percent pace in the third quarter from a year earlier. The rate is the fastest for a major economy after China’s 9 percent and compares with 6.8 percent in Brazil and 6.2 percent in Russia.

Investors pulled money out of India as they retreated from emerging markets, sending the MSCI developing-nation index down 55 percent this year.

International investors sold a record $13.5 billion in Indian equities this year as of Dec. 5, according to data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India, as global credit losses and writedowns approached $1 trillion.

Investors bought a record $17.4 billion in 2007. India’s $573 billion stock market is the region’s fourth-largest after Japan, China and Hong Kong.

Jhunjhunwala, who graduated with honors from the Sydenham College of Commerce and Economics in Mumbai, advised investors to be cautious and predicted the market would “pause and correct” in a Nov. 11 interview with CNBC’s Indian unit. Ranked a billionaire by Forbes earlier this year, Jhunjhunwala said he didn’t expect the Sensitive Index and the S&P CNX Nifty index to fall to their lows for the year in October.

‘Surprise’

Buffett, the 78-year-old chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., is the second-wealthiest person in the U.S., Forbes magazine said in September. Berkshire has a market value of $161.4 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Jhunjhunwala, who owns a $5.2 million six-bedroom apartment in the city’s luxury district of Malabar Hill, declined to disclose his net worth, the amount of money he manages or the stocks he wants to buy.

“I was caught completely by surprise when the Nifty broke the 4,000 level; that was the rock solid bottom, I had thought,” said Jhunjhunwala, who employs about 15 people and has invested about $100 million in 15 privately held companies. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange slid 0.3 percent to 2920.15 at the close of trading.

‘More Attractive’

Mark Mobius, who oversees more than $24 billion in emerging- market stocks as the Singapore-based executive chairman at Templeton Asset Management Ltd., and Hugh Young, who runs $45 billion from Singapore as a managing director at Aberdeen Asset Management Ltd., agree with Jhunjhunwala.

Mobius said last month that economic growth will help stocks recover. Aberdeen is looking for investments in the Indian market.

“Great companies which were at that time fully valued have come back down to good valuations,” Young said. India “is now looking a lot more attractive,” he said.

Annual inflation in India may drop to less than 5 percent in the next two months, which should result in lower interest rates, Jhunjhunwala said. Inflation slowed to a seven-month low of 8 percent in the week to Nov. 29.

The rupee, the second-worst performer among Asian currencies after falling 19 percent this year, may strengthen to between 44 and 45 rupees against the dollar by March, Jhunjhunwala said. The currency gained 1.4 percent to 48.35.

Jhunjhunwala recommends investors bet on gains in equities, commodities and emerging-market currencies, and declines in the U.S. dollar.

“The malaise of the West isn’t a problem India is facing; we don’t have overextended banking systems or overextended credit,” Jhunjhunwala said. “The basis of India’s economic growth has far deeper roots than many other countries.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at pthakur@bloomberg.net;
Last Updated: December 11, 2008 07:01 EST

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Market_News/Growth_justifies_premium_valuation/articleshow/3830504.cms

‘India’s growth story justifies premium valuation’
13 Dec 2008, 0031 hrs IST, Shailesh Menon & Nishanth Vasudevan, ET Bureau

MUMBAI: At the peak of the bull run, the premium valuation of Indian shares over emerging markets peers wasn’t a deterrent to foreign investors flush with cash. The consumption boom in the country, they point out, justified the high price to earnings multiples.

And while Indian shares are now down over 50% from their record highs, they are still expensive compared with other emerging markets. While fund managers are in no hurry to buy, market analysts feel that the premium valuations are justified.

In terms of valuations, denoted as the price-earnings ratio (P/E ratio), the Sensex is trading at 8-9 times the estimated earnings for 2009-2010 compared with China’s 7-7.5 times, even as the communist country scores over India in economic growth. Most other emerging economies, such as Brazil, South Africa, South Korea and Russia, are trading at 4-7 times their estimated earnings.

“While the Indian economy is in the midst of a very challenging period, and growth may continue slowing in the coming months, it would be wrong to give up on the country’s long-term growth story that remains very positive,” Robert Prior-Wandesforde, HSBC Global Research’s senior Asian economist, said.

India’s economy is seen growing by 7-7.5% this fiscal against 9% in 2007-08 and is estimated to contract further in 2009-10 to 5.5-6%, economists said. While China is expected to grow at higher single digits, growth in most other emerging economies is estimated at lower single digits.

“The P/E ratio should not be seen in isolation; it has to be seen against the backdrop of earnings per share (EPS) growth and return on equity (ROE). Despite the economic slowdown, Indian companies command an EPS growth of about 11% over the next two years,” said Dalton Capital Advisors (India) MD UR Bhat.

At the peak of the bull rally late last year, the Sensex traded at 18-19 times 2009-10 estimated earnings — compared with 14-16 times seen in other emerging markets — factoring in the ambitious expansion plans of Indian companies. However, with many of these growth plans being shelved, following the global downturn, investors are concerned about the extent of a possible deviation in companies’ actual earnings from analysts’ estimates. Some analysts, however, do not see too much variance between actual and estimated earnings.

“The composition of the Indian market is different from other emerging markets and is more diversified. Also, historically, earnings in India are less volatile than other emerging markets — EPS growth volatility is 12% compared with 33% for the MSCI Emerging Markets Index,” said HSBC Global Research’s India equity strategist Vivek Mishra.

But there are others who disagree. Investment bank Credit Suisse presents a grimmer outlook on India’s corporate earnings than many others, predicting a “negative earnings growth in 2008-09 and, at best, flat EPS growth for FY10”.

“A sharp decline in capital flows from abroad and rising risk aversion among promoters in the aftermath of massive wealth destruction are likely to derail India’s investment-driven growth theme, at least for a while,” it added.

Indische Aktien sind teuer geworden

Von Christoph Leisinger

Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, FAZ (09.10.09) - Die Börsen der Schwellenländer verbuchten in den vergangenen Monaten massive Kursgewinne. In Erwartung einer robusten wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung und in der Hoffnung, die Endnachfrage nach Produkten in den Industriestaaten werde im Rahmen einer wirtschaftlichen Erholung von der Krise wieder anziehen, ignorierten die Anleger alle Risiken und setzten auf die Aktien in diesen Regionen.

Die massivsten Kursgewinne verzeichneten seit März die Aktienmärkte in Zypern, der Ukraine, Ungarn, der Türkei, Kasachstan, Serbien, Rumänien, Peru, Jakarta, Brasilien, Vietnam, Russland, Namibia und nicht zuletzt auch Indien. Die wichtigsten Indizes in diesen Staaten legten umgerechnet in Euro zwischen 94 und 175 Prozent zu.

(Quelle und ausführlich weiter lesen: http://www.faz.net/s/RubF3F7C1F630AE4F8D8326AC2A80BDBBDE/Doc~E4DBD043DB99F4834ABA1FCB300453227~ATpl~Ecommon~Sspezial.html)

Bitte klicken Sie für Grafiken des indischen Index auf den Link !