Snow: Japan soll FX-Intervention unterlassen / Druck auf China ?
Sunday, August 31, 2003
Snow Might Call On Japan To Refrain From Forex Interventions
TOKYO (Nikkei)--U.S. Treasury Secretary John Snow, in a meeting with Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa scheduled for Monday here, might call on the Japanese monetary authorities to refrain from further market interventions aimed at curbing the yen's appreciation, diplomatic sources say.
Although Snow is said to be critical of the way Japan has stepped into the market frequently in the recent past, he has so far made no public comments faulting Japan's currency policy.
Snow, who is due to travel to China following his visit to Tokyo, is expected to discuss the U.S.'s intention to cooperate with Japan to persuade Beijing to revalue the yuan upward. U.S. manufacturers are having difficulty countering competition from cheaper Chinese goods flooding the U.S. markets.
Some U.S. companies argue that the yuan is undervalued by 30-40% vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar. Since Japanese manufacturers are faced with a similar problem with regard to imports of Chinese products, Washington wants to work with Tokyo to pressure the Chinese government to float the yuan.
The treasury secretary is now said to believe Japan's intervention in the foreign exchange market is as much a problem as the Chinese currency.
Japanese monetary authorities, which stepped in the market in a massive way in the past, have refrained from such action for a month or so to mollify the U.S.
On Friday, however, speculation spread among market participants that Japan had resumed intervention following the abrupt rise of the yen's value.
The administration of U.S. President George W. Bush professes to be committed to keeping the dollar strong. With next year's presidential election approaching, however, it may try to weaken the greenback to deal with U.S. companies' complaints about "the undervalued yen."
Shiokawa on the other hand fears adverse effects of a strong yen on the Japanese economy and hopes to seek U.S. understanding on the Japanese government's currency policy when he meets with the U.S. official.
(The Nihon Keizai Shimbun Sunday edition)
Offenbar ist es nicht so weit her mit dem Druck auf die japanische Regierung. Gerade heute morgen sahen wir wieder eine Intervention, siehe Chart. Die BoJ bzw. das Finanzministerium ist noch nicht gewillt den Yen freizulassen.
Goodbye Snow. Welcome Intervention :o)
Wo geht der Yen / Dollar zum Jahresende hin?
Gruss
Herbie
Impossible to see, the future is... the dark side clouds everything!
Kann man wirklich nicht sagen! Ich vermute das MoF und die BoJ werden den USD/JPY-Kurs aus politischen Gründen unter 124 und aus ökonomischen Gründen über der 114 halten. Mehr vermag ich nicht zu sagen! Jede Spekulation auf ein davon abweichendes Szenario hielte ich für extrem riskant.
Wer sich gegen die BoJ stellt wird im Zweifelsfall hoffnungslos überfahren!
Gruß!
Und schon wieder eine Intervention.
Early intervention Early this morning during the Sydney trading session, Japanese banks aggressively bought up USDJPY from 116.80 in what looked at intervention action, though the hour the authorities picked to intervene was a strange one. IMM data (see blow) shows market positioning had moved aggressively long JPY, and portfolio inflows notwithstanding we are not surprised therefore that the BoJ has been coming in to intervene since the pair saw of 115.75 last week. We know from previously released data that the BOJ intervened massively to prevent a break of Y115 back in May of this year, and the authorities appear to remain sensitive to the importance of this level and/or the speed and breadth of recent JPY gains. With Secretary Snow's visit to Asia having come and gone without any significant criticism of Japan's intervention practices, in marked contrast to focus on China's currency mechanism, it could be concluded that Japan is not facing compelling diplomatic pressure to desist. We will nonetheless watch out for the issue being brought up again at the G7 finance ministers meeting on September 20th in Dubai. While in context of better growth and of healthier domestic financial markets Japanese authorities have little incentive to chase USDJPY aggressively higher, intervention to protect sharp downside in USDJPY will certainly remain a feature of the financial markets for now. We maintain our 1-month forecast at Y117, and our view that the authorities will ultimately allow further downside towards Y115 over a 3-month horizon.
Hallo zusammen.
Meiner Meinung nach wird die BoJ weiter intervenieren, schon darum um die Aktien-Rallye weiter anzuheizen.
Immer mehr macht es für mich den Anschein, dass die gesamte bisherige Problematik in Japan nur über stark ansteigende Aktienkurse zu lösen ist. Durch die daraus folgenden imensen Aktienportfeuille-Gewinne der Banken und Versicherungen, gleichen sich die vergangenen Verlustposten der Institute wieder mehr als aus.
Was das strukturelle Problem in Japan angeht, die Top-Leute haben aus den Fehlern der Vergangenheit gelernt.
Der Nikkei zeigt sich am Wochenanfang sehr robust.
Wir werden in der nächsten Zeit wieder viel hören ;o)
Viele Grüsse
Franjo
Hallöchen!
Und schon wieder eine Intervention! Langsam wird's langweilig, wollte es nur noch mal zur Sprache um zu zeigen daß die BoJ macht was sie will. Der Herr Snow muß ja in Tokyo wahnsinnigen Eindruck hinterlassen haben!? "Wenn ihr nicht mit diesen bösen Interventionen aufhört, schmeißen wir mit Wattebäuschlein!" ;-)
Interessanter Marktbericht:
Aggressive buying interest from the Tokyo center brought USD/JPY back from the brink Tuesday afternoon in New York. The pair had been under pressure throughout the morning, reflecting, albeit mutedly, the growing bearishness towards the USD overall as a result of growing US budget-deficit worries. Strangely, BoJ-agent banks didn't make their presence known throughout the morning. Into our early afternoon, heavy USD/JPY and EUR/JPY selling from a New York bank had them pinned down under 116.35 and 130.10 respectively. Follow-through selling on the back of the EUR/USD rise back over 1.12 had the JPY pairs looking about to come undone; USD/JPY's 116.10 bids were tapped a couple of times. Then, out of nowhere, a New York bank's Tokyo branch stepped in with a 116.30 bid. A few other Tokyo-center players upped the ante to 116.40. Not to be left out of the party, the New York branches of Japanese banks followed suit from 116.50 up to 116.70. The buyers first to grab USD at lower levels shed some near 116.70, but the pullback towards 116.50 was met with yet another wave of suspected covert intervention that has carried us to within sight of 117.00.