Venezuela-Streik kann jederzeit aufhören OPEC Sitzung am Sonntag
Hallo zusammen, grüsse Euch.
Man könnte den folgenden Artikel so interpretieren, dass bei einem baldigen Streikende in Venezuela, kombiniert mit einer OPEC-Förderquotenerhöhung (möglicherweise am 12.Januar) und trotz der noch schwelenden Irak-Problematik (die meines Erachtens friedlich gelöst wird und zudem schon seit längerem als Risikoaufschlag im Ölpreis eingepriced war), der Ölpreis an den unteren Rand der OPEC-Bandbreite fallen wird.
Mit einschliessen sollte man in diese Überlegungen auch, dass im März/April der Winter (Heizsaison) auf der nördlichen Halbkugel beendet ist, und somit dieser Nachfragefaktor wegfällt.
Die Chancen stehen meiner Meinung nach eher auf fallende Ölpreise (bzw. rapiden Sturz der Ölpreise, bei Eintritt verschiedener Faktoren), als auf noch weiter steigende Preise. Ein weiterer Jump in Richtung 40 $ und höher kann nur durch einen überraschenden Angriff auf den Irak kommen.
Viele Grüsse
Euer
Franjo
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Saudi Seeks Big OPEC Increase, Cartel May Meet
January, 09th. 2003
DUBAI --
OPEC ministers held telephone talks on Tuesday on how to cool sizzling oil prices and look likely to meet on Sunday to decide how much extra supply is required to make up for a five-week-old Venezuelan stoppage.
A Saudi Arabian proposal to add up to two million barrels a day met with opposition from some other cartel members who fear such a drastic move could bring prices down heavily and risk a glut of crude within months, Reuters reported. "There is a plan being circulated now to increase production by between 1.5 and two million barrels per day," said a senior OPEC delegate from a key producer. "This plan is supported by Saudi Arabia and others."
The Saudi plan is double the size of an initial proposal by the OPEC president, Qatar's Abdullah al-Attiyah, earlier this week.
Kuwait has said ministers were considering a more modest 1.0-1.5 million bpd and many in OPEC said they thought it unlikely the group would add more than that.
Oil prices fell heavily for the second day in succession on the prospects for more oil. London Brent lost 51 cents to $29.69 a barrel by late-afternoon in London. U.S. crude fell 98 cents to $30.92 a barrel.
Prices had jumped by a quarter in two months to the end of December, reaching two-year highs because of a strike in Venezuela, the world's fifth largest exporter, that has cut its deliveries by eighty percent.
Differences of opinion mean ministers look set to hold an emergency meeting on January 12 in Vienna to reach a decision, rather than finalize a deal by telephone.
"There is a good chance of a meeting on Sunday," said an official at OPEC's Vienna secretariat.
The supply squeeze has drained U.S. oil stockpiles to near their lowest levels in 26 years, just as Washington prepares for war on Iraq, like Venezuela a member of the 11-strong OPEC.
"The plan to increase supplies is in light of the shortage from Venezuela and a sharp draw down in global stockpiles," said the first OPEC delegate. "And there is a strong desire within OPEC not to have a high price which might harm world economic growth, especially in developing countries."
The Saudi plan met with approval from Washington. A U.S. state department official said that a substantial increase would be "a positive development."
???? Too much? ????? Those favoring a smaller increase said a hike of two million bpd could drive prices sharply lower.
"Two million is too much," said a second delegate.
This delegate said the Venezuelan strike could fall apart at any time, restoring about two million bpd onto the 77 million bpd world market.
And any extra barrels produced now in the Middle East will reach Western markets by March, just as demand tails off after the winter peak.
"I am concerned about the second quarter if there is an increase of a million barrels per day or more, because it could drive prices down," said another OPEC source. "There is no decision yet and there are several proposals on the table."
Signs that Saudi already is preparing to deliver extra volumes from the end of January came from shippers who said Riyadh had ordered more tankers to take crude to the United States at the end of the month.
