Weizen: Raus aus dem saisonalen Tief ?
Die Commercials haben nochmals 316 Longs aufgebaut auf jetzt +15.783.
Die Large hauen dagegen weitere 2.615 Shorts drauf auf jetzt -15.616.
Saisonal spricht einiges für ein Tief im Juli/August. Sollten hier, wie Arnd Hildebrandt immer sagt, die Large demnächst mal wieder kräftig gebraten werden?
mfg Jens
Geschrieben von PFTR
am
@ Jens
Dafür wäre ich zumindest! Allerdings können die Fonds phasenweise preisbestimmend sein.
Aber, je tiefer der Preis und je kräftiger die Baissestimmung, desto qualitativ hochwertiger die Basis für zukünftige Longs.
Gruss
Jens,
hier setzt sich eindeutig das Seasonal durch. Was aber nun im Juli zuende gehen dürfte, siehe Chart.
http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/highlights/2004/06-04/2%20qtr%202004%20Wheat%20quarterly%20ITR-.pdf
http://www.fas.usda.gov/grain/highlights/2004/06-04/Asian%20ITR.pdf
http://www.theglobalist.com/DBWeb/StoryId.aspx?StoryId=3827
Ciao
Uli
07/16/2004
· The market was unchanged in overnight trade after trading to the lowest level since October 20th. Traders believe that nearly every major world exporter is now attempting to make sales on the world market and yesterday's weak sales number may be just the beginning of a tough period for US exporters. The European crop may not be quite as high as expected but still a huge recovery from last year's drought.
· Canada wheat production looks favorable as well. Australia sold 17,750 tons of wheat to Taiwan overnight which was the second purchase of Australia wheat this year. Cold and wet weather for the harvest may have hurt the quality of the Ukraine crop but production is still expected to be sharply higher from last year's disaster. China imported 1.24 million tons of wheat in June which brought total imports for the year to 2.73 million tons. China was not a major importer last year.
· Winter wheat production in China was thought to total near 83.1 million tons, up 3% from last year. Continued favorable weather for the US crop and demand concerns have fund traders building a larger and larger net short position in the wheat market.
· The downside breakout to the lowest level since October of 2003 keeps the market in a decisive downtrend. Funds were noted sellers of at least 3000 contracts. Poor weekly export sales and weakness in the other grains helped pressure the market early. Weekly export sales for wheat came in at 312,400 tons as compared with trade expectations at 400,000-500,000 tons. Old crop sales were 312,400 tons as compared with 388,900 tons necessary each week to reach the USDA projection. Cumulative sales have reached 31.3% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 18.5% on average for this time of the year.
· South Korea bought 21,000 tons of US wheat and Japan bought 126,000 tons at their weekly tender, 85,000 of the total from the US. The poor weekly sales may leave traders with the impression that prices may need to move lower in order to compete on the world market. Basis was at the gulf and track bids continue to firm with hard red harvest slowing.
· After a dry weekend, traders look for good rains in the spring wheat areas for the middle of next week. The lower than expected weekly sales news has traders believing that US prices will need to move to a still lower level in order to compete on the world market.
Quelle: Hartfield Report 07/16/2004
Hoffe gedient zu haben.
Martin
Heute auf Taurosweb: 'Weizen in Chikago trifft bei fallenden Preisen auf zunehmende kommerzielle Kaufbereitschaft, berichten Händler von dort.'
mfg Jens