Weizen: Starkes short covering verursacht Preissprung in US

Wheat Market Recap Report for 5/1/2009

July Wheat finished up 33 1/2 at 570, 4 off the high and 33 1/2 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 32 1/4 at 618 1/2. This was 33 1/2 up from the low and 4 off the high.

A burst of buying by funds and locals triggered large-scale short covering by traders in wheat this morning, as well as unwinding of short wheat position on spread positions versus corn and soybeans. The 5-day forecast shows rains of 3-6 inches across a broad band of the US that starts in eastern Oklahoma and extends through northern Arkansas and southern Missouri before heading up the Ohio River Valley. This would hit a number of soft red wheat areas that are already very wet, and some traders thought that this may have raised concerns over quality issues for soft red wheat if the rains continue. All of this comes on the heels of good rains in a number of formerly dry areas of the southern Plains that had many traders expecting hard red winter crops in those areas to improve. Now the outlook may be more mixed. Traders also note that trend-following funds had a record large net short position in Chicago wheat on the last Commitments of Traders Report, and this may be setting the stage for some short covering. Dry conditions in Russia are also a concern according to some traders. Dry weather in Argentina has long been a concern, although some welcome rain is expected on Sunday and Monday. This would be very timely since planting season is just about to get underway there.

July Oats closed up 4 at 207. This was 6 up from the low and equal to the high.

Quelle: http://www.cmegroup.com/education/market-commentary/Commodities/wheat-close.html