EL Nino La Nina - im neutralen Bereich - Diskussion

Im Frühjahr sollte laut allen Prognosen die neutrale Lage beständig bleiben.

Aber man wird sehen, wie sich die Lage bis zum Sommer entwickelt. Die Modelle neigen sich im Mai in den wichtigen Regionen Nino 3 und 4 zwar noch im neutralen Bereich, aber übereinstimmend auf die El Nino Seite. Also unbedingt weiter im Auge behalten!

Siehe hierzu:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_e…

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/model-summary.shtml#tabs=Pacific-Oc…

http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.de/2013/11/coming-soon-maybe-to-cine…

Aktuelle Daten: Die Prognosen für Sommer/Herbst neigen sich zunehmend mehr in Richtung El Nino:

aus:

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/el-nino-fears-ukraine-freeze-add-to-wheat…

..."Separately, Australia & New Zealand Bank highlighted the threat to Australian crops, but in
particular wheat, from a potential El Nino weather pattern which appears to have
a near- 50% chance of forming by August, the southern hemisphere spring. Weather models based on sub-surface sea temperatures, which have a more accurate long-term forecasting record, "are indicating an even stronger probability of El Nino than consensus," said Paul Deane, ANZ senior ag economist. "But uncertainty will only diminish once we progress into late [southern hemisphere] autumn when model accuracy improves significantly."..."

aus:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_e…

aus:

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

"Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest the tropical Pacific
Ocean will warm through the southern autumn and winter. Some, but not
all, models predict this warming may approach El Niño thresholds by
early winter. Model outlooks that span autumn have lower skill than
forecasts made at other times of the year, hence long-range model
outlooks should be used cautiously at this time."

Update vom 10.2.2014

aus:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_e…