US Schlachtzahlen und Fleischvorrat auf Rekordniveau

KANSAS CITY (Dow Jones)--This week's U.S. hog slaughter set a new record for
March, and the month-to-date total is on pace to possibly hit a new high as
well, despite March having one less weekday than a year ago.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated this week's hog slaughter at
2.306 million head, which was up 205,000 head, or 9.8%, from the year-ago
figure.

The latest three weeks have set consecutive new highs for March hog
slaughters, replacing the former record of 2.134 million set in the week-ended
March 16, 2007. What's more, these three weeks have averaged nearly 135,000
head, or 6.3%, above the previous record set last year.

Glenn Grimes, agricultural economist at the University of Missouri, said with
the month-to-date figure already approximately 400,000 head above the same
period a year ago, the March total may exceed the year-ago monthly tally for a
new record. The race will come down to what occurs next week and the last day
of the month, he said.

Cash hog prices were under pressure throughout the week and have lost a
little more ground each day. The USDA's daily national dressed hog price
reports show a loss of about $2 per hundredweight for the week, as of midday
Friday. The terminal markets traded from $1 to as much as $4 lower on a live
basis.

Producer losses are mounting due to the combination of low hog prices and
very high feed costs. Liquidation of sows appears to be under way based on
slaughter figures, declining sow prices and reports that sow processors have
been forward booked on supplies up to a week out.

There are mixed opinions among market analysts and livestock dealers for
price direction in the next two weeks. Some predict at best a flat market for
the period due to expectations that slaughter-ready hog supplies will remain
large. They also said increased sow liquidation would push even more pork onto
the already burdensome supplies. However, others expect barrow and gilt
supplies to tighten slightly, which could provide just enough of a spark to
pull prices up a bit and initiate the spring rally.

Consumer demand for pork along with packer demand for the live hogs remains
strong, Grimes said. He and fellow University of Missouri economist Ron Plain
calculate demand for meats and livestock using a three-month rolling average.
In the latest calculations which are for December through February, Grimes said
consumer demand for pork was up 5% from the same period a year ago. Packer
demand for hogs was up 8.2% in the period, he said.

Meanwhile, consumer demand for beef slipped by 2.8% from the previous year,
but packer demand for live cattle was up 1.8%, Grimes said.

The USDA on Thursday reported its monthly cold storage data for end February.
The report showed total pork stocks at 603.244 million pounds, the largest on
record for any month. The latest figure was up 32.9 million pounds from the
previous month, compared with a five-year average increase of 4.2 million, said
Rich Nelson, director of research at Allendale Inc.

Nelson said the previous record for total frozen pork stocks was at 596.9
million pounds, set in April 1999. He said the increase in February came on
huge slaughters, so it might not be a big cause of concern for the market.
However, the large stocks could make some lean hog futures traders cautious
about buying when the market reopens Monday.

Some analysts and pork industry participants said the rise in cold storage
stocks in February might also be linked to delayed shipments of pork destined
for international markets. Dow Jones Newswires reported earlier this month a
shortage of shipping containers and railcars along with cargo space for meat
and poultry export shipments. Some packers and exporters reported that some
shipments had been delayed up to a month.

Wann gleichen sich Lean Hog Preis und V Preis wieder an? Kann der V Preis dauerhaft bei einem Selbstversorungsgrad von über 100% deutlich über dem Lean hog price sein?