Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Weizen Chicago: Marktberichte und Meinungen

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/7/2007

July wheat traded 5 cents lower overnight.

Talk of a much improved outlook for the harvest of the winter wheat crop in the weeks ahead along with ideas that futures are overbought helped spark the weakness yesterday and again overnight. Funds were noted sellers of near 5,000 contracts yesterday. Ukraine's UkrAgroConsult revised down its 2007 grain crop forecast by 11.5% to 33 million tonnes. Dry air is dominating the southern part of the country, and dryness is expected to continue for at least another 5 days which could add to the losses. Without Ukraine and Russia as active exporters for the coming season, other key exporters may see increased business. The Agriculture Minister in Turkey indicated that grain output this year (mostly wheat and barley) could fall near 8% due to drought. Last year's grain crop was 20 million tonnes. For the USDA Crop Production report on Monday, traders are looking for winter wheat production near 1.64 billion bushels (range 1.592-1.686) as compared with 1.616 billion projected last month and 1.298 billion bushels last year. For all wheat production, traders are looking for production near 2.206 billion bushels (range 2.163-2.229) as compared with 2.174 billion projected last month and 1.812 billion bushels last year. For Monday's USDA Supply/Demand report traders are looking for new crop ending stocks near 498 million bushels (range 458-539) as compared with 469 million posted in May and 412 million for this year. Traders are also looking for a slight increase in this year's ending stocks of near 1 million bushels to 413 million with a range of 402-427. South Korea millers are tendering to buy 23,900 tonnes of US wheat. Japan bought 80,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 40,000 of the total coming from the US.

The overbought technical conditions combined with improving weather for the southern plains were seen as the primary reasons for the wheat market to collapse and close sharply lower on the day yesterday. A lack of new supportive news on the international weather front along with ideas that the US weather could improve enough to see harvest progress begin to pick up helped drive the market sharply lower into the mid-session. Weakness in the other grains added to the bearish tone. A reversal in French wheat futures and talk of a bearish wheat production forecast from China was also seen as factors to trigger the setback. The China National Grain and Oils Information Centre revised their wheat production forecast higher by 3.2 million tonnes from their previous estimate to 105 million tonnes vs. 104.47 million tonnes last year and 97.45 million tonnes in 2005. Ukraine is expected to remain mostly dry for the next week or so but with less heat.

The weekend looks dry but storms could develop for Kansas late in the weekend and again on Wednesday. Basis at the Gulf was mostly weaker for soft red wheat as talk of increased movement due to increased harvest activity helped pressure. Weekly export sales for wheat, released before the opening, came in at 347,700 tonnes, which was within the range of expectations. Improving US weather and harvest pressure could support a technical setback, but a return to more storms in Kansas next week is another crop threat.

(Quelle: Chicago Board of Trade, http://www.cbot.com)

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Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 6/7/2007

July Wheat finished up 4 3/4 at 524 1/2, 4 off the high and 10 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 6 3/4 at 554 1/4. This was 13 1/4 up from the low and 1/4 off the high.

The outlook for good harvest weather into next week helped trigger the early weakness but strength in the other grains, ideas that Ukraine production forecast will continue to decline until the region receives good rains and fears that the US crop could see further deterioration "if" more rain hits the winter wheat belt next week helped support. In addition, after scrapping a tender for 1 million tonnes in late May, India announced plans to import 5 million tonnes between August and December of this year to help rebuild buffer stocks. Funds were noted buyers of near 3,000 contracts into the mid-session. With tight world stocks, the buying could help provide support to world prices. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 347,700 metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 300,000-400,000. Cumulative sales have reached 96.0% of the USDA forecast as compared to 94.9% on average over the last five years. Japan bought 80,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 40,000 of the total coming from the US. South Korea is tendering to buy 23,900 tonnes of US wheat.

July Oats closed up 3 at 293 1/2. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and equal to the high.

(Quelle: Chicago Board of Trade, http://www.cbot.com)

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/8/2007

July wheat traded 3 cents lower overnight.

The other grains were lower overnight due to weakness in international edible oil prices and a potential shift of a hot and dry ridge pattern to the west of the Midwest in the 6-10 day outlook. If the shift occurs, this may help improve harvest weather for the southern plains. News of increased buying from India and continued deterioration of crops in the Ukraine and Black Sea region helped provide a base of support yesterday. Traders expect the USDA to raise their winter wheat crop production forecast in Monday's reports. While there was a general expectation that the Kansas crop recovered from the spring freeze, the sharp drop in crop conditions for the week ending June 3rd has caused analysts to second guess the idea that final crop production will actually be higher than last month's forecast. Funds were noted buyers of near 3,000 contracts yesterday. Ukrainian consultants revised their wheat crop forecast down by more than 2 million tonnes from last month, which would suggest that the world production forecast for Monday's report will also decline. In May, the USDA projected world ending stocks at just 113.36 million tonnes which is the smallest since the 1981/82 season. India floated a tender to buy 50,000 tonnes of wheat with an option to buy an additional 50,000 tonnes.

The outlook for good harvest weather into next week helped trigger the early weakness yesterday, but strength in the other grains, ideas that Ukraine production forecast will continue to decline until the region receives good rains and fears that the US crop could see further deterioration "if" more rain hits the winter wheat belt next week lent support. In addition, after scrapping a tender for 1 million tonnes in late May, India announced plans to import 5 million tonnes between August and December of this year to help rebuild buffer stocks. With tight world stocks, the buying could help provide support to world prices. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 347,700 metric tonnes, which was within trade expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 96.0% of the USDA forecast as compared to 94.9% on average over the last five years. Japan bought 80,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 40,000 of the total coming from the US. South Korea is tendering to buy 23,900 tonnes of US wheat.

The weekend looks dry, but storms could develop for Kansas late in the weekend and again on Wednesday. Heavy rains into harvest in 1995 caused a significant deterioration of crops. Basis at the Gulf was mostly weaker for soft red wheat this week, as harvest was beginning to pick up steam. Hard red basis was steady. For the USDA Crop Production report on Monday, traders are looking for winter wheat production near 1.64 billion bushels (range 1.592-1.686) as compared with 1.616 billion projected last month and 1.298 billion bushels last year. For all wheat production, traders are looking for production near 2.206 billion bushels (range 2.163-2.229) as compared with 2.174 billion projected last month and 1.812 billion bushels last year. For Monday's USDA Supply/Demand report traders are looking for new crop ending stocks near 498 million bushels (range 458-539) as compared with 469 million posted in May and 412 million for this year.
Traders are also looking for a slight increase of about 1 million bushels in this year's ending stocks to 413 million with a range of 402-427. Improving US weather and harvest pressure could support a technical setback, but the market looks vulnerable to a contra-seasonal rally into harvest "if" yields come in below expectations.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/11/2007

July wheat traded 8 3/4 cents higher overnight.

The results of the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand report this morning should have a significant impact on the opening. However, fears of further harvest delays in the southern and central plains along with growing concerns that yields are coming in well below expectations has helped provide underlying support. Drought conditions in the Ukraine and fears of further export problems from the Black Sea region due to the drought added to the positive tone last week. Ideas that India may set a tender for 2 to 2 1/2 million tonnes added to the bullish tone last week as well. Traders look for a 24 million bushels increase in winter wheat production in this morning's report, but if the rains persist and yield falls off well below current USDA estimates, the US may also face tight stocks for the year ahead. Oklahoma combine crews reported late last week of disappointing yield potential. Expectations in some areas were near 50-60 bu/acre, but harvesters are finding yields of just 30-40 bushels per acre in some areas. Argentina planting is proceeding ahead, but dry soils are a potential problem in some areas. The USDA sees a 2007/2008 crop for Argentina near 12.8 million tonnes from 14.0 million this past season. South Korea bought 23,900 tonnes. In May, the USDA projected world ending stocks at just 113.36 million tonnes, which is the smallest since the 1981/82 season. The Commitment of Traders report with options on Friday showed the market in a classic bullish setup with non-commercial traders net long and non-reportable traders net short 24,933 contracts. In the supplemental report which excludes index funds, trend-following funds were actually net long just 3,201 contracts, not the net long of 30,304 contracts posted in the traditional report. Funds shifted from a net short to a net long position which is positive and the buying trend of the trend-following funds is also positive.

Weakness in the other grains, improving weather for harvest of the hard red winter wheat crop and a drop in basis levels for soft red helped spark the early weakness on Friday, but the market managed to recover from mid-session into the afternoon and close higher on the day. Traders are looking for a revision higher in production for the USDA Crop Production report. However, continued dryness concerns for the Ukraine and informal reports of lower than expected yields in the US central plains helped spark increased speculative buying into the mid-session. Modest recoveries in soybeans and corn helped spark the better close. With world wheat stocks already projected at a historically tight level, a further reduction in production from the Black Sea region could push world stocks even tighter and could boost the export prospects for key world exporters

more rains over the weekend and more in the forecast for the middle of the week could stall harvest and cause increased disease problems for the hard red crop. Basis at the Gulf was sharply lower last week for soft red wheat as the harvest progresses. June shipment wheat traded at 25 cents discount to July futures. For the USDA Crop Production report on Monday, traders are looking for winter wheat production near 1.64 billion bushels (range 1.592-1.686) as compared with 1.616 billion projected last month and 1.298 billion bushels last year. For all wheat production, traders are looking for production near 2.206 billion bushels (range 2.163-2.229) as compared with 2.174 billion projected last month and 1.812 billion bushels last year. For Monday's USDA Supply/Demand report traders are looking for new crop ending stocks near 498 million bushels (range 458-539) as compared with 469 million posted in May and 412 million for this year. Traders are also looking for a slight increase of about 1 million bushels in this year's ending stocks to 413 million with a range of 402-427. Too much rain in the plains and talk of lower than expected yields should help support the market. The market will react to USDA news, but the focus is on weather and crop conditions. The market looks vulnerable to a contra-seasonal rally into harvest "if" yields come in below expectations.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Mid-Session Wheat Market Report for 6/11/2007

July wheat opened 17 1/2 cents higher on the session at 545 and established an early range of 541 to 557 1/2. More rain in the forecast for the plains in the next few days and storms from the weekend combined with friendly numbers from the USDA supported the sharply higher trade early in the session. The USDA pegged US 2007/08 all winter wheat production at 1.61 billion bushels, which was below trade expectations 1.64 billion bushels (range 1.592-1.686) and down slightly from the 1.616 billion projected last month but up from 1.298 billion bushels last year. US all wheat production for 2007/08 came in at 2.168 billion bushels, which was also below expectations for 2.206 billion bushels (range 2.163-2.229) and down from 2.174 billion projected last month but higher than the 1.812 billion bushels for 2006/07. US all wheat ending stocks for 2007/08 were estimated at 443 million bushels, which is below expectations calling 498 million bushels (range 458-539) and below the 469 million posted in May. Ending stocks for 2006/07 were revised higher to 417 million bushels from the 412 estimated in May. World wheat production for 2007/08 was pegged at 610.15 million tonnes, which was revised down from the 616.87 million forecast in May but up from 594.09 million for 2006/07. World wheat ending stocks for 2007/08 were pegged at 112.03 million tonnes versus 113.36 forecasted in May and 121.95 million for 2006/07. Ukraine production was pegged at 14 million tonnes from 17.5 million projected last month and Russia production was revised down by 3.5 million tonnes to 45 million. Weekly export inspections, released during the session, came in at just 8.24 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 15-20 million. Inspections will need to average 19.3 million bushels per week for the 2007/2008 season in order to reach the USDA projection. Informal reports of lower than expected yields in Oklahoma and Kansas along with the potential for further crop deterioration before harvest added to the bullish tone on the floor. Both KC and Chicago wheat managed to trade at limit-up pricing today and nearby futures in Chicago moved to the highest level since May of 1996.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Juli Weizen gerade plus 30 = limit up !

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/18/2007

July wheat traded 3 1/4 cents lower overnight.

Ideas that the central and southern plains will finally dry out after recent steady rains helped spark some weakness overnight. The extremely overbought condition of the market and the upcoming harvest selling pressures are expected to be negative forces for the short term. This has been especially true for the Oklahoma region this past week, as producers have been waiting for a chance to harvest. A hot and dry ridging pattern is predicted to build over the next week in the southern US plains, which is nearly ideal for harvest. Wet conditions after the crop matured has led to disease and quality issues, and the inability to harvest have left the crops vulnerable to lodging and other yield-loss problems. Commercial traders and end users who were waiting for a harvest break to buy are caught short bought in the market after the first decent corrective break could attract significant commercial buying interest. News that Brazil is looking to import wheat from Canada, US or Russia helped provide some underlying support. In May, India cancelled a tender to buy 1 million tonnes of wheat, and traders are concerned that current high prices may discourage a surge in imports. In early June, the Farm Minister said the country would need to import 5 million tonnes of wheat from August through December of this year.

The market experienced two sided and choppy trade in an attempt to consolidate recent gains on Friday. July wheat has rallied as much as $1.50 1/2 off of the May 22nd lows. Ideas that the market is overbought combined with news that Egypt cancelled their tender for buying 55,000-60,000 tonnes of wheat helped spark a long liquidation setback early in the session. However, the market found support on the early break due to the forecast for more rains in the southern plains during the session Friday and again today and Tuesday. Rains are threatening crop losses and delaying harvest, and more rains early next week could spark more damage. Dryness is expected to continue to stress crops in Ukraine and Russia, which is also helping to support the market as further crop losses from the Black Sea region could spark increased interest in US wheat. Some rains are expected for early next week but not enough to bust the drought. The Canadian wheat Board pegged western Canada wheat production for the 2007/2008 season at 21.2 million tonnes as compared with 24.4 million last year. This news was seen as a positive development and traders also viewed news that Morocco was lowering import tariffs on wheat as positive. The private firm Informa pegged the spring wheat planted acreage at 13.958 million as compared with the USDA forecast for planted area of 13.8 million.

After some rains in the eastern part of the plains early this week, the region looks to dry out and turn hot which might be considered ideal for harvest. Basis at the Gulf was steady for hard red wheat and lower for soft red due to harvest. The Commitment of Traders report with options showed the market in a classic bullish setup with non-commercial traders (funds) net long (and buying more for the week) and non-reportable traders (small specs) net short 26,544 contracts. Trend following fund traders increased their net long position by 9,922 contracts for the week ending June 12th to 13,123 contracts and the buying trend is a short term bullish force. The market looks vulnerable to new fund buying and small trader short-covering if resistance levels are violated. The outlook for increased harvest in the plains may trigger a correction of the overbought condition.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 6/19/2007

July Wheat finished down 20 at 581, 19 off the high and 2 up from the low. December Wheat closed down 21 1/4 at 601 1/2. This was 2 1/2 up from the low and 17 off the high.

A warmer and drier trend in the forecast for the plains and the delta helped spark ideas that the crop harvest weather will be near ideal for the next week and helped drive futures sharply today. Ideas that the Australia crop forecast at 22.5 million tonnes was bearish added to the negative tone, despite previous crop expectations ranging from 22 to 26 million tonnes. Improving spring wheat crop conditions and anticipated harvest pressure for the winter wheat harvest seemed to be the dominate force today. While the harvest is behind schedule, the weather outlook is nearly ideal for catching up. The winter wheat harvest report, released after the close Monday, showed 11% complete compared to 34% last year. Oklahoma harvest reached 41% complete, but only 2% of the Kansas crop is harvested as compared with 48% last year. The weekly winter wheat conditions report showed 50% was rated good/excellent compared to 52% last week and 29% last year. Oklahoma slipped to 39% good to excellent from 44% last week. Ohio also slipped 6% to 41% good to excellent. The spring wheat conditions report showed 85% was rated good/excellent compared to 81% last week and 60% last year. Drought has cut the Bulgaria wheat crop to a 4-year low and is expected to be down by about 30% to near 2.2 million tonnes, according to the Farm Minister. Morocco is tendering to buy 250,000 tonnes of US soft wheat and 90,000 tonnes of durum.

July Oats closed down 16 3/4 at 272 1/4. This was 1 1/4 up from the low and 12 1/4 off the high.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

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Aktuell wird Dezember Weizen in Chicago bei 607 gehandelt (plus 5,50), das Tief in der vergangenen Nacht lag bei 598,50.

November Weizen an der RMX wird mit 170 zu 177,5 genannt, der Vortag schloss mit überdurchschnittlichem Umsatz bei 173,50.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/20/2007

July wheat traded 1 1/4 cents higher overnight.

A shift in the weather pattern helped spark the limit down move in corn and should also shift psychology in the wheat market as well. Winter wheat harvest weather looks to improve dramatically in the next 10 days, and the outlook for increased harvest selling pressure along with weakness in corn helped pressure the market yesterday. Yield concerns, however, have not gone away, and commercial buyers could get active on a significant technical correction off of last week's highs. Warm and dry weather has pushed the soft red crop along to maturity at a much faster pace than normal. While the hot and dry weather could boost harvest pressures, smaller kernels and lower yields could be seen as potential supportive factors. Funds were noted sellers of near 6,000 contracts yesterday. Ideas that the larger Australian crop will help ease tightness for world ending stocks (pegged at a 30-year low in the June USDA report) added to the bearish tone, but the new estimates are similar to the current USDA forecast. German crops look a bit better than initially believed, but too much rain in France is a bit of a concern. Dryness problems in Argentina have slowed planting progress with only 28.2% of the crop planted as of Friday. South Korea is tendering to buy 42,700 tonnes of US wheat and Iraq is tendering to buy 350,000 tonnes of wheat flour. Taiwan bought 89,910 tonnes of US wheat. Russian Ag officials indicated that grain exports this coming season should be 8-10 million tonnes as compared with 13 million this season.

A warmer and drier trend in the forecast for the plains and the delta helped spark ideas that the crop harvest weather will be near ideal for the next week and helped drive futures sharply lower yesterday. Ideas that the Australia crop forecast at 22.5 million tonnes was bearish added to the negative tone, despite previous crop expectations ranging from 22 to 26 million tonnes. Improving spring wheat crop conditions and anticipated harvest pressure for the winter wheat harvest seemed to be the dominate force today. While the harvest is behind schedule, the weather outlook is nearly ideal for catching up. The winter wheat harvest report, released after the close Monday, showed 11% complete compared to 34% last year. Oklahoma harvest reached 41% complete, but only 2% of the Kansas crop is harvested as compared with 48% last year. The weekly winter wheat conditions report showed 50% was rated good/excellent compared to 52% last week and 29% last year. Oklahoma slipped to 39% good to excellent from 44% last week. Ohio also slipped 6% to 41% good to excellent. The spring wheat conditions report showed 85% was rated good/excellent compared to 81% last week and 60% last year. Drought has cut the Bulgaria wheat crop to a 4-year low and is expected to be down by about 30% to near 2.2 million tonnes, according to the Farm Minister. Morocco is tendering to buy 250,000 tonnes of US soft wheat and 90,000 tonnes of durum.

The plains are drying out and turning hotter into next week, which is nearly ideal for harvest. Basis at the Gulf was steady. Export tenders and activity are impressive given the current price level, and world end users seem to be absorbing the idea that wheat prices may need to stay high for awhile in order to ration tight supply and to entice producers to increase wheat acres for the coming season. With improving weather for harvest, some additional setback is likely.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Aktuell notiert Dezember Weizen in Chicago plus 20 Cent auf 621.75 nach einem Tageshoch bei 629.50. In Hannover wurde November Weizen mit 173 zu 176 notiert, die anderen Monate zwischen minus 3 Euro für den September 2007 und plus 1 Euro für den Januar und Mai 2008.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/21/2007

July wheat traded 3 cents higher overnight at 608 but managed to trade as high as 618.

Reports of poor crop conditions and ideas that producers are lowering their yield expectations ahead of harvest helped support strong gains in the wheat market yesterday. December wheat managed to push to new contract highs yesterday and again overnight. Traders were hopeful that harvest would move along at a faster pace this week, but more rains in Oklahoma, Texas and parts of Kansas yesterday slowed progress again. The outlook for hot and dry weather next week could spark some selling harvest pressure over the near term, but speculative buying recently has been active. Increased interest from key importers this week was seen as a bullish surprise, and news that Ukraine will limit exports to just 3,000 tonnes per month for July, August and September added to the bullish tone, as a lack of exports from Ukraine and Russia would suggest increased exports from other key exporters. After several weeks of rains on the matured hard red winter wheat crop, talk of disease and insect problems has helped provide underlying support. In addition, traders are concerned with the yield impact of the faster than normal maturity pace for the soft red crop, which could impact kernel size and yield. Funds were noted buyers of near 6,000 contracts yesterday. Due to drought conditions, Morocco is expected to import near 3 million tonnes for the coming season as compared with 1 million tonnes this past season.

While traders came into the week expecting a much drier trend for the southern plains, more rains in Oklahoma and Texas overnight helped spark increased concerns about seeing more delays to the harvest this week, which increases the possibility for more disease problems for the unharvested hard red winter wheat crop. News that Ukraine imposed a 3,000 tonne per month quota on wheat exports for the 3 months beginning July added to the bullish tone. With tight beginning stocks in the US and in the world supply/demand data and the outlook for a continued decline in world ending stocks even with the higher Australia production, the market has remained sensitive to weather that might hurt production of matured winter crops. Funds were featured buyers for the day yesterday. The trade is also a bit surprised with the significant jump in import demand on the minor break off of last week's contract highs. Taiwan bought 89,910 tonnes of US wheat overnight. South Korea is tendering to buy 42,700 tonnes of US wheat and Iraq announced a tender for 350,000 tonnes of wheat flour.

The plains are drying out and turning hotter into next week, which is nearly ideal for harvest. Basis at the Gulf was steady. Weekly export sales, released before the opening, came in at 541,000 tonnes, which was above trade expectations and above the 413,100 tonnes reported last week. The market is extremely overbought, but there appears to be more upside until the trade gets a better feel for just how poor yield may be.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 4 Cent auf 627.50. Hoch/Tief 637.50 / 625.24.

November Weizen in Hannover 176 zu 178, letzter Handel zu 177, Hoch/Tief 178 / 177, Umsatz bisher 111 November und 135 für alle Monate.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/22/2007

July wheat traded 7 1/4 cents lower overnight.

The outlook for improving harvest weather next week and ideas that futures are extremely overbought sparked long liquidation selling overnight. With the excessively wet weather of the past month, end-user demand for high quality wheat is on the rise, and this helped spark a surge in Minneapolis wheat. If commercials buy spring wheat from last year's crop, it could be blended with the poor quality crop this year, and news of spring wheat export sales added to the rush to own old crop spring wheat. Stats Canada will release new producer plantings estimates on Tuesday. Traders look for planted acreage to come in near 23.4 million acres with a wide range of expectations from 22.4 to 25.8 million. In March, producers were expecting to plant 23.8 million acres as compared with 26.4 million last year. Poor weather slowed plantings in some areas, but high wheat prices may have been an incentive to boost acres. Weakness in the other grains helped keep a lid on fund buying yesterday which kept many funds on the sidelines. A warm and dry trend for the northern plains in the forecast may also help improve crops after recent wet weather may have sparked more disease problems.

Continued harvest delays in the US due to recent rains combined with tightening world stocks helped spark the early strong gains for the session yesterday. In addition, the recent surge in export news added to the firm tone early. However, weakness in the other grains and ideas that harvest weather will improve next week helped limit the upside buying support and contributed to the close which was well off of the highs. December wheat did manage to post a new contract high. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 541,000 metric tonnes, which was above trade expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 19.4% of the USDA forecast as compared to 17.5% on average over the last five years. In addition, the USDA reported a sale of 160,000 tonnes of US spring wheat to unknown destinations. This news helped support July wheat futures in Minneapolis, which managed to push to a new contract high and to the highest level for nearby futures since 1996. Some of the trouble spots for dryness in the world look to have drier than normal forecasts, with rain needed for Ukraine, Argentina and Australia wheat areas. Argentina is having a difficult time getter the crop planted, while Australia crops have dried up recently. Tunisia bought 117,000 tonnes of milling wheat overnight, and South Korea bought 42,700 tonnes of US wheat. Bangladesh is tendering to buy 138,000 tonnes.

Hotter temps and little rainfall in the southern plains for next week will be nearly ideal for harvest. Basis at the Gulf was steady to firm yesterday, as early harvest results were disappointing. Just when US millers were getting more active about securing higher protein, higher quality wheat for blending purposes, news from the USDA of a sale of 160,000 tonnes of US spring wheat to unknown destination helped spark aggressive buying. Better weather and sloppy trade in the other grains may take the bullish edge off of the market into next week. The market seems too overbought to see another leg up just yet.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen notiert in Chicago minus 7.25 auf 620.75 Euro. Hoch/Tief heute 626.75 / 620.

November Weizen in Hannover aktuell 175 zu 176, letzter Handel 176, das ist ein Rückgang von 1.60 Euro gegen den Ssttlement Preis von gestern.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 6/26/2007

September Wheat finished up 21 1/2 at 626, 8 1/2 off the high and 8 up from the low. December Wheat closed up 19 1/4 at 634. This was 8 up from the low and 9 1/2 off the high.

A decline in crop conditions, confirmation of a slow start to harvest and continued strong demand for export helped spark aggressive buying and sharply higher trade in wheat today. Funds were noted buyers of near 3,000 contracts into the mid-session. In addition, Statistics Canada pegged planted area for wheat at just 21.7 million acres which is down 10.5% from last year and down from trade expectations to see 23.4 million acres. India issued a tender to buy 1 million tonnes of wheat which added to the positive tone. July KC wheat traded as much as 30 cents higher on the session as quality and quantity issues are supporting strong commercial buying and Minneapolis wheat is seeing strong demand for quality old crop wheat to blend with the lower quality harvested wheat. The weekly winter wheat harvest report showed 22% complete as of Sunday compared to 11% last week and 50% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 37%. The weekly spring wheat conditions report showed 79% was rated good/excellent compared to 85% last week and 57% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 65%. For the partially harvested winter wheat crop, the conditions report showed 48% was rated good/excellent compared to 50% last week and 29% last year. For the USDA planted acreage report for release Friday morning before the opening, traders are looking for spring wheat plantings near 13.89 million acres (range 13.76-14.1) as compared with the March USDA preliminary forecast of 13.980 million acres and 14.89 million last year. For the June 1st stocks report, traders are looking for wheat stocks at 419 million bushels (405-432) as compared with 572 million bushels last year. In the June supply/demand report, the USDA used 443 million bushels as their ending stocks (June 1st) estimate.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen notiert in Chicago aktuell plus 1,50 auf 635,50 US-Dollar, 20 Minuten vorher wurde bei 638 das Tageshoch erreicht.

November Weizen wurde in Hannover zuletzt plus 2,30 auf 180 gehandelt, ein Jahreshoch. Hoch/Tief = 180/179, aktuell 179,50 zu 181, Umsatz nach 2 1/4 Stunden 43 Novemberkontrakte, 74 in allen Monaten.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 6/29/2007

July wheat traded 11 cents higher overnight while KC July wheat jumped 14 3/4 cents. For first notice day deliveries for the July contract, deliveries came in at 1,722 contracts from trade expectations at 2,000-3,000 contracts.

The southern plains continue to take a daily pounding of rains, which continues to cause yield and quality losses to the hard red winter wheat crop. The need for high quality/high protein wheat has provided a surge in demand for old crop spring wheat and a surge higher in Minneapolis wheat. New contract highs in Europe overnight and fears of wet weather problems in central Europe for the harvest added to the bullish tone. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts yesterday. The International Grain Council pegged world wheat production for the 2007/2008 season at 614 million tonnes, down 7 million from last month but still up from 593 million tonnes last year. Ukraine production was revised to 13 million tonnes, down 4 million from last month. The council pegged world ending stocks at 111 million tonnes, down about 1 million tonnes from the last USDA forecast of 112.03 million.

Supportive export sales, continued heavy rains in the plains and more news of tightening world supply helped spark the early rally for wheat yesterday. July KC wheat led the market higher yesterday, as wet weather returned to eastern Kansas overnight. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 622,800 metric tonnes, which was above trade expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 21.7% of the USDA forecast as compared to 19.4% on average over the last five years. The market also found support from higher wheat prices in Europe, as more rains in Germany and concerns that further rains in France and/or Germany could lead to yield damage and not just quality damage helped support. Positioning ahead of the USDA planted acreage report for this morning helped limit the buying support late yesterday. December Minneapolis wheat was up as much as 13 cents into the mid-session as higher protein/higher quality milling wheat is seeing increased demand from commercials.

More rains in the southern plains forecast keeps the market fearful of harvest losses. Basis at the Gulf was steady yesterday, but there was plenty of talk that Brazil bought US and Canadian wheat this week. The USDA report news for wheat this morning was considered bullish with the market called 10-20 cents higher on the opening. The USDA pegged planted acreage for spring wheat at 13.144 million acres as compared with the average trade estimate of 13.89 million acres (range 13.76-14.1) and compared with the March USDA preliminary forecast of 13.98 million acres. Producers planted 14.89 million last year. The USDA pegged all wheat planted acreage at 60.505 million acres as compared with the average trade estimate of 60.38 million acres (range 60-60.6) and compared with the March USDA forecast of 67.14 million acres. For the Grain stocks report, wheat stocks on June 1st (also ending stocks for the 2006/2007 season stood at 419 million bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 419 million bushels (range 405-432) and compared with 572 million bushels last year. In the June supply/demand report, the USDA used 417 million bushels as their ending stocks estimate. Spring wheat planted acreage came in below the low end of trade expectations which is bullish.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 13 auf 646, Hoch/Tief heute bei 646.75/632.40. Umsatz Chicago rund 6.800.

November Weizen Hannover bis 3,5 Cent auf 184, Hoch/Tief 184/183, aktuell 183 zu 185, Umsatz 17, davon 7 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/5/2007

September wheat traded 11 1/2 cents higher in overnight trade. Deliveries for the July contract came in at just 20 contracts.

A jump in the other grains and continued signs of strong demand for wheat on the world market helped spark the solid gains overnight. Egypt tendered for wheat from various countries after the close Tuesday and bought 175,000 tonnes of wheat yesterday with 115,000 tonnes of soft red wheat of the total coming from the US. Egypt seems to be trying to secure needs at the same time that many other end users are searching for higher quality wheat. News that Syria indicated to their customers that they may need to cancel some export contracts due to a poor harvest added to the bullish tone this morning. Talk is that up to 550,000 tonnes of soft milling wheat and near 200,000-300,000 tonnes of durum wheat could be cancelled. India received seven bids for their 1 million tonne tender on the world market, but with much higher pricing than last year and even than last month, traders suspect India to buy a smaller quantity. French officials believe the crop will be near 35 million tonnes, up 5% from last year. However, officials believe that European wheat exports outside of the bloc will fall to near 8.5-9.5 million tonnes as compared with 10.7 million tonnes for the 2006/07 season. South Korea bought 44,300 tonnes of US wheat and Jordon is tendering for 100,000 tonnes. Brazil is considering buying more wheat on the world market as well.

There was some follow-through technical selling early on Tuesday, but the market managed to hold minor support and push slightly higher on the day into the mid-session, despite weakness in the other grains. However, a sharp break in the other grains and increased long liquidation selling from funds helped pressure the market late. Some liquidation of long Minneapolis/short Chicago and long KC/short Chicago helped support the Chicago market. Rain in the southern plains appears to be subsiding, and traders are a bit more confident that the harvest of the hard red crop will see some progress. The weekly winter wheat harvest report, released Monday night, showed 40% complete compared to 22% last week and 62% last year. While Indiana and Illinois are on par with a normal, Oklahoma and Kansas are just 59% complete vs. 96% and 82% on average respectively for this time of the year. The spring wheat crop is in good condition, and while there are some high temperatures in the forecast into early next week, North Dakota top soil conditions appear to be in good shape to withstand a few days of heat. Tightening world stocks continue to provide some underlying support to the market, and light deliveries against the July contract also helped provide some support. South Korea seeks 44,300 tonnes of US wheat.

Except for some rain expected today in Oklahoma, the southern plains look dry through Monday, which ought to help the hard winter wheat harvest make some progress. Hot and dry conditions in the northern plains will deplete soil moisture and could stress crops. Soft wheat basis was steady. Exporters are no longer offering hard red winter wheat with 12% protein due to lower quality of the crop and offers are now for 11%. Less wheat for export from Europe and Ukraine, a sharp drop in production from Canada and a lack of wheat from Australia until November should keep the US tender market active and wheat exports from the US strong. The break off of last week's highs seems to have attracted significant new export business, as tightening world supply and expectations for tightening US ending stocks for the July report may help the market find solid support.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 9.75 auf 606.75, Umsatz Chicago rund 3.600.

November Weizen Hannover unverändert 183, Hoch/Tief 187/183, aktuell 183 zu 186, Umsatz Hannover 43.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/12/2007

September wheat traded 5 3/4 cents higher in overnight trade. Deliveries for the July contract came in at 271 contracts with a strong commercial stopper of 257 contracts.

Traders are bracing for the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports for this morning. Export news have been strong despite what is considered high priced wheat, as many of the US competitors for wheat exports are running low or have already committed wheat to regular customers. Traders are hopeful that the good start to the spring wheat crop will offset the production losses from the poor weather for the winter wheat harvest. Funds were noted buyers of near 5,000 contracts yesterday with talk of increased export demand to Brazil and Iraq. In addition, there are rumors that India would tender for another 1 million tonnes of wheat next week despite buying just 511,000 tonnes from this week's 1 million tonne tender. Ideas that Brazil could buy up to 1 million tonnes from the US and Canada added to the bullish tone yesterday. Traders expect the USDA to lower world ending stocks in the report as well, which were at 112.03 million tonnes last month, a 30-year low. There is a general perception that there may be even more damage done to the crop after July 1st, which will show up next month as the unharvested wheat in Oklahoma and Kansas may not be harvested at all. Indonesia imports are expected to increase to 4.61 million tonnes this season, up 6% on the season. For the weekly export sales report, also released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 700,000 to 800,000 tonnes as compared with 538,400 tonnes last week.

Buyers were active ahead of the key USDA report for release this morning and funds were noted buyers of near 5,000 contracts. Ideas that export demand is remaining strong despite the high price and talk that milling quality wheat will be in very tight supply this season helped drive the market to the highs into the close. Ideas that the North Dakota spring wheat crop will produce well this season and talk of the overbought condition of the market helped limit the buying support early in the session, but ideas that there will be significant production lost due to abandonment issues in Oklahoma and Kansas and a lack of high quality milling wheat helped support a surge into the mid-session. More wet weather in the southern plains and the outlook for more heat back into the spring wheat areas next week helped provide support.

Parts of the western northern plains could come under some stress ahead with heat returning to the region. More rain in southern Kansas and south today will slow harvest. Soft red wheat basis at the Gulf was steady. Japan bought 100,000 tonnes at their weekly tender. For the monthly Crop Production report from the USDA on Thursday morning, traders look for winter wheat production to come in near 1.585 billion bushels (range 1.539-1.643) as compared with the June estimate of 1.610 billion bushels. For all wheat production, traders look for near 2.155 billion bushels (range 2.033-2.238) as compared with last year's production of 1.812 billion. For the supply/demand date, traders are looking for 2007/08 ending stocks to come in near 464 million bushels (range 400-580) as compared with the June USDA estimate of 443 million bushels. The market may assume additional damage done to US crop after July 1st.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 5.50 auf 639.50, Umsatz Chicago rund 4.100.

November Weizen Hannover heute plus 2.70 auf 189.90, Hoch/Tief 189.90/187.50, aktuell 188.30 zu 190, Umsatz Hannover 17.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/13/2007

December Wheat finished down 1 1/2 at 635 1/4, 2 3/4 off the high and 4 3/4 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 3/4 at 620 3/4. This was 4 3/4 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.

More heavy rains into the southern plains failed to cause much of a reaction to the market as speculative long liquidation selling helped pressure the market early in the session. Some hedge selling was noted in Kansas City as the winter wheat harvest pushes into the northern plains. Solid export sales news this week helped provide some underlying support but the heat in the forecast for the western sections of the spring wheat belt for next week failed to generate much in the way of new buying and profit-taking selling was noted. Iraq has tendered to buy 50,000 tonnes of hard wheat while news that Indonesia bought 25,000 tonnes of wheat from China was seen as mixed. However, traders see Indonesia as attempting to buy US cargoes for September and October shipment as supportive. Australia wheat will not be available until later this year and the crop is seeing some stress from a lack of rains recently; especially in the Western Australia region. Romania officials indicated that the harvest which is 80% complete has produced only 2 million tonnes of wheat so the total crop is expected to be well under expectations for a 3 million tonne harvest. Deliveries totaled 254 contracts.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell minus 9,50 auf 626. Hoch/Tief heute 628.50 und 616. Umsatz bisher rund 3.700 Kontrakte.

November Weizen Hannover bisher ohne Umsatz, 187 Geld zu 189.50 Brief.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/16/2007

September wheat traded 10 1/4 cents lower overnight. Deliveries for the July contract came in at 200 contracts.

The backlash from aggressive long liquidation selling for the other grain markets combined with the technical overbought condition of wheat could spark increased long liquidation selling in the wheat market for early this week. However, with the current ending stocks forecast at a 12 year low and world ending stocks at a 26 year low, it will be very important to see a good spring wheat crop this season. The crop started off in nearly ideal conditions but, recent dryness in western Dakotas and Montana and more heat in the forecast for this week (temps in the 100's over the weekend) could spark some crop concerns. The heat is coming in at a time when yield could be impacted by stressful conditions during the heading and filling stages for the crop. In addition, the unharvested winter wheat crops in Kansas and Oklahoma look to stay that way, which could lead to a lower production forecast for the August Crop Production report. While traders believe the market is overbought and considered expensive, end user buyers remain very active. In fact, last week's export sales total was the highest since 2005. India's Farm Minister this morning indicated that the country will import more wheat despite high global prices to ensure food security. A jump of 5 million tonnes from China production helped push the world ending stocks estimate higher in last week's world supply/demand report. China has not been a major importer recently and they are not expected to be a major exporter. Argentina dryness concerns may provide some underlying support, as plantings have reached 73% for the new crop season. A lack of supply from Argentina has traders believing that Brazil will be a large importer of US and Canadian wheat in the months just ahead.

More heavy rains into the southern plains failed to cause much of a reaction to the market on Friday, as speculative long liquidation selling helped pressure the market early in the session. Some hedge selling was noted in Kansas City, as the winter wheat harvest pushed into the northern plains. Solid export sales news this week helped provide some underlying support, but the heat in the forecast for the western sections of the spring wheat belt for next week failed to generate much in the way of new buying, and profit-taking selling was noted. Iraq has tendered to buy 50,000 tonnes of hard wheat, while news that Indonesia bought 25,000 tonnes of wheat from China was seen as mixed. However, traders see Indonesia as attempting to buy US cargoes for September and October shipment as supportive. Australia wheat will not be available until later this year, and the crop has been seeing some stress from a lack of rains recently, especially in the Western Australia region. Romanian officials indicated that the harvest which is 80% complete has produced only 2 million tonnes of wheat, so the total crop is expected to be well under expectations for a 3 million tonne harvest. Deliveries totaled 254 contracts.

A hot and dry pattern looks likely for the northern plains for the next week or maybe more. This should stress spring wheat, especially in western areas of the Dakotas and west. Soft wheat basis at the Gulf was steady. The Commitment of Traders report with options shows the market in a classic bullish setup, with non-commercial traders (funds) net long 32,700 contracts and non-reportable traders (small specs) net short more than 25,000 contracts. This leaves the market vulnerable to increased fund buying and increased small spec short covering if resistance levels are violated. Trend following funds increased their net long by 1,141 contracts to just 6,041 contracts so the market is far from any overbought condition. It is tough to see the extent of selling which may be from overflow from the other grains. Spring wheat areas still look very hot.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/18/2007

December Wheat finished up 25 1/4 at 642 1/2, 2 1/2 off the high and 24 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 22 1/4 at 623 1/2. This was 20 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.

Solid gains in the other grains and ideas that the US will be the dominant wheat exporter on the world market until the Australia crop is harvested in November helped spark solid buying support and a sharply higher trade into the close. Confirmation that Syria cancelled 400,000 tonnes of export commitments, fears that heat may damage yield potential in the northern and western plains and into Canada in the next week and ideas that a bulk of the un-harvested wheat in Oklahoma and Kansas may not be high enough quality to harvest helped support the market. Harvest is well north into Nebraska and the harvest of some higher quality/higher protein wheat in Nebraska has helped limit the upside and protein premiums have moved lower in the past week. Traders await news on the Morocco tender for 250,000 tonnes of US soft wheat and 90,000 tonnes of durum wheat. In addition, traders believe India and Iraq will be back into the world market for wheat soon. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 450,000-650,000 tonnes as compared with 1.183 million tonnes last week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/19/2007

September wheat traded 8 1/4 cents higher overnight.

The market seems to be realizing more and more that US wheat is the cheapest in the world and that world demand is still strong. High prices of the past month have kept many end user buyers going hand-to-mouth on needs and near-term demand looks better than expectations. Ending stocks forecasts are already low and the quality issue on top of tighter than normal ending stocks suggests the supply of higher quality wheat could tighten to historical levels. A lack of European, Canadian and Argentina offers in the last Egypt tender is an example of the need for the US exporter to step up. Funds were noted buyers of near 3,000 contracts yesterday. Traders suspect more demand over the near-term from Morocco and Algeria. Morocco has awarded 9 companies licenses to import 243,000 tonnes of US wheat. Officials believe the country may need to triple their imports this year to 3 million tonnes after drought cut their grain harvest outlook to near 2.0 million tonnes from 9.3 million last year. Taiwan's tender for 91,890 tonnes of US wheat failed overnight as there were no offers. Concerns that the wheat would not meet the countries stringent pesticide residue rules and that the seller would need to pay for the cargoes to come back to the US left the tender void of offers. News that Syria had to cancel 400,000 tonnes of exports was seen as a positive development but already expected. Declining crop estimates due to too much rain in to the French harvest helped spark a run to new contract highs at the French exchange overnight. India's Farm Minister raised their wheat production forecast to 74.8 million tonnes from 73.7 million in April and 69.48 million tonnes last year.

Solid gains in the other grains and ideas that the US will be the dominant wheat exporter on the world market until the Australia crop is harvested in November helped spark solid buying support and a sharply higher trade into the close yesterday. Confirmation that Syria cancelled 400,000 tonnes of export commitments, fears that heat may damage yield potential in the northern and western plains and into Canada in the next week and ideas that a bulk of the un-harvested wheat in Oklahoma and Kansas may not be of high enough quality to harvest helped support the market. Harvest is well north into Nebraska, and the harvest of some higher quality/higher protein wheat there has helped limit the upside, and protein premiums have moved lower in the past week. Traders were awaiting news on the Morocco tender for 250,000 tonnes of US soft wheat and 90,000 tonnes of durum wheat. In addition, traders believed India and Iraq would be back into the world market for wheat soon.

The far western portion of the northern plains continue to see hot and dry conditions, but the situation improves as you move east, and even eastern Montana and the western Dakotas appear to have some chances of rain in the next two days. Hard wheat offers were seen at the Gulf for the first time in two weeks, at 80 cents premium to Sept KC futures. Soft wheat basis at the Gulf were firmer due strong export demand this week. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 450,000-650,000 tonnes as compared with 1.183 million tonnes last week. There seems to be too much demand to hold the market back.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 4 auf 646.50, Tief/Hoch 637/647.50, Umsatz rund 8.000.

November Weizen Hannover plus 4,80 auf 192, Tief/Hoch 187.40/192, aktuell 191 zu 192, Umsatz 68.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/20/2007

September wheat traded 4 1/4 cents higher overnight.

September wheat has consolidated near the 620 level since the middle of June, as solid export demand has clashed with declining corn values, ideas that the market is overbought and overvalued, and good yield for the soft red wheat harvest. The focus of attention is shifting over to the spring wheat crop conditions in the US and maybe more so for the Canadian crop, which will need to absorb a surge in heat which could bring 100 degree temperatures to Saskatchewan and Manitoba next week. French wheat futures posted new contract highs overnight as talk of yield problems in France due to recent poor weather and news that Morocco will import 299,000 tonnes of European wheat helped support. The Ukrainian Minister cut that country's grain forecast to 27 million tonnes from a previous forecast of 27-28 million and from 34 million last year.

The poor close yesterday after a run at the contract highs may be considered a bearish technical development for the market. Weakness in corn and ideas that next year's crops will be large in the US and especially Europe if set-aside wheat areas open up helped offset fears of tightness at the end of the 2007/2008 season. Strong export demand despite what are thought to be relatively high prices helped support further strong buying in the wheat market and moderately higher trade into the mid-session. Morocco issued licenses to import 243,000 tonnes of US wheat, and Tunisia tendered for 125,000 tonnes of milling wheat, while Jordon is tendering to buy 100,000 tonnes of hard wheat. On top of the weekly sales, the USDA confirmed a sale of 106,000 tonnes of US wheat to Bangladesh and also 60,000 tonnes of soft red and 55,000 tonnes of hard red to Egypt. New contract highs in France for November futures added to the positive tone early. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 769,100 metric tonnes, which was above trade expectations. Cumulative sales have reached 29.4% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 24.6% on average over the last five years. Sales of 437,500 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate.

The western portion of the northern plains continues to see hot and dry conditions into early next week, and the heat moves east into early next week. There are some indications of cooler weather toward the end of the 10-day forecast. Soft wheat basis at the Gulf was steady yesterday. Threatening weather into Canada, the possibility of lower winter wheat production in the August report due to harvesting problems for the central plains and yield concerns due to wet weather for the French harvest are all potentially supportive factors for wheat. Corn weakness and spread liquidation triggered a setback.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 3.25 auf 638.50. Tief/Hoch 630.50/639.50. Umsatz heute rund 4.500.

November Weizen Hannover plus 5 auf 197. Tief/Hoch 193/197, Geld/Brief 195 zu 196.90. Umsatz 85, davon 65 November Futures.

Anstieg rund 10 Euro oder 5 % in 2 Tagen - neues Rekordhoch an der RMX.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/23/2007

September wheat traded 4 1/2 cents higher overnight.

The market continues to find support from surprisingly strong demand for US wheat, tightening global supply and concerns that the harvest in Europe may not be as high as traders have indicated. Weakness in the other grains helped push the market lower after early strength on Friday and on Thursday as traders and funds appear hesitant to hold net longs in wheat. In fact, the COT report with options for the supplemental report from Friday showed that as of July 17th, trend-following funds were net long just 1,283 contracts. India's July 1st wheat stocks came in at just 13 million tonnes as compared with the government target of 17 million tones, but the higher than expected production could help rebuild stocks. European wheat prices pushed to new highs this morning on continued yield concerns for this week's crops as too much rain into the French harvest may have disrupted yields. A private group in Australia (Australia Crop Forecasters) has lowered their production forecast for 2007/2008 to 23.7 million tonnes which is down from the previous forecast of 26 million tonnes but still above the official Australia government forecast of 22.5 million tonnes. Solid export demand and concerns that too much heat on the western spring wheat growing areas will impact yield will help to support the market this week. Traders are also somewhat concerned with the slow pace of Argentina plantings due to too much dry weather and very cold weather over the weekend which could have damaged some of the freshly planted crops. In addition, the trade sees the abandon rate shooting higher for the winter wheat crops in Kansas and Oklahoma which have yet to be harvested and could show up as lower production in the August USDA production report.

New contract highs in Europe, active export news for the US and continued talk of potentially stressful weather ahead for the spring wheat crops in the plains and into Canada helped provide underlying support for the early bounce on Friday. However, weakness in the other grains helped erase the gains. Yields in France have been coming in well below expectations, which added to the positive tone early. Follow through technical selling after Thursday's weak action helped trigger a set-back into the mid-session last Friday. End user buyers from Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Bangladesh have been active in the past week which helped support the uptrend. Cumulative export sales for the 07/08 season have already reached 29.4% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 24.6% on average over the last five years. Traders are looking for temperatures of 95 to 105 degrees for highs in Montana and the western Dakota's for early this week.

The western portion of the northern plains continues to see hot and dry conditions into early this week but some rain is in the forecast to ease the stress. Wheat basis at the Gulf was firm on Friday due to active exports. The Commitment-of-Traders report with options showed the market in a classic bullish set-up with non-commercial traders (funds) net long and non-reportable traders (small specs) still net short 27,911 contracts. This leaves the market vulnerable to new fund buying and new spec short-covering if resistance is violated. The supplemental report which excludes index funds showed that trend-following funds were net long just 1,283 contracts; not the 28,285 contract net long posted in the traditional report.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago vor Eröffnung plus 3.75 auf 637. Tief/Hoch 627/638, Umsatz bisher rund 8.000.

November Weizen Hannover plus 7,60 auf 204,50. Tief/Hoch 197/204.50, Geld/Brief 199 zu 205. Umsatz 53, davon 12 November.

Anstieg rund 10 % in den letzten 3 Tagen - neues Rekordhoch in Hannover.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/23/2007

December Wheat finished up 4 at 637 1/2, 1 off the high and 8 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 4 at 620 1/4. This was 7 1/4 up from the low and 2 1/4 off the high.

The strong close higher despite the sharp sell-off in the other grain markets and the weakness in many commodity markets on the day is seen as an impressive technical development. Continued reports of lower than expected yields for the European harvest and new contract highs for French wheat futures helped support the higher opening. Traders shook off the weak tone for the other grains but weakness seemed to help limit the buying support from funds early in the session. The weekly export inspections report, released during the session, showed wheat exports at 19.3 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 13-16 million. In order to reach the projection for the year, weekly shipments need to average 20.6 million bushels. Lower private analyst projections for the Australia crop this season and continued concerns for the Argentina crop due to a lack of rain to get the crop planted and weekend cold weather added to the positive tone. The forecast for some rain and cooler temperatures for parts of North Dakota helped to limit the upside. In addition, crop scouts for the North Dakota crop tour believe they will see the crop off to an excellent start this week. Traders will monitor information out of the spring wheat crop tour this week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 11.50 auf 648.75. Tief/Hoch 638/648.75, Umsatz bisher rund 4.300.

November Weizen Hannover plus 6.20 auf 210. Tief/Hoch 204/210. Geld/Brief 207 zu 211.50. Umsatz 20, davon 6 November.

Realtimekurse und Charts: http://www.rmx-forum.de/cgi-bin/index.pl?SRT=1

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/24/2007

September wheat traded 17 1/4 cents higher overnight.

New contract highs for the French soft wheat futures overnight combined with continued concerns for yield due to too much rain for the European harvest helped support the trade overnight. Montana crop conditions continued to deteriorate but North Dakota was steady at 84% good to excellent. The severe 100 degree heat has stayed in the western sections of the spring wheat belt and traders are a bit more concerned with hot and dry conditions into Canada and the impact on their crop as compared with the North Dakota crop which was past the heat sensitive period when the heat arrived. Reports of lower than expected yields from Europe have provided solid underlying support. After the close, Egypt tendered for more wheat (55,000-60,000 tonnes) and traders suspect that the US will again receive the loin's share of the business. Algeria is in the market to buy at least 100,000 tonnes of wheat. With temperatures expected to reach near 108 degrees in the northern plains today, the trade believes the spring wheat crop may deteriorate further.

The strong close higher yesterday despite the sharp sell-off in the other grain markets and the weakness in many commodity markets on the day is seen as an impressive technical development. Continued reports of lower than expected yields for the European harvest and new contract highs for French wheat futures helped support the higher opening. Traders shook off the weak tone for the other grains but weakness seemed to help limit the buying support from funds early in the session. The weekly export inspections report, released during the session, showed wheat exports at 19.3 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 13-16 million. In order to reach the projection for the year, weekly shipments need to average 20.6 million bushels. Lower private analyst projections for the Australia crop this season and continued concerns for the Argentina crop due to a lack of rain to get the crop planted and weekend cold weather added to the positive tone. The forecast for some rain and cooler temperatures for parts of North Dakota helped to limit the upside. In addition, crop scouts for the North Dakota crop tour believe they will see the crop off to an excellent start this week. Traders will monitor information out of the spring wheat crop tour this week.

The western portion of the northern plains continues to see hot and dry conditions for the next few days but cools down in the eastern sections of the Dakotas with some chance of a shower. Wheat basis at the Gulf was higher yesterday. The weekly Spring Wheat Conditions report showed 75% was rated good/excellent compared to 76% last week and 34% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%. The highest percent rated good/excellent was 82% in 1993 while the lowest was 5% in 1988. The weekly update also showed that only 83% of the Oklahoma crop is harvest which suggests a drop in production from previous expectations.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell plus 20,50 auf 658. Tief/Hoch 638/658.75, Umsatz bisher rund 8.600.

November Weizen Hannover plus 10.20 auf 214.--. Tief/Hoch 204/214. Geld/Brief 211 zu 215. Umsatz 49, davon 20 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/24/2007

December Wheat finished up 21 1/2 at 659, 5 off the high and 10 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 21 3/4 at 642. This was 11 1/2 up from the low and 6 off the high.

Fears of declining production in Europe due to poor weather for harvest and continued strong demand for US wheat for export helped spark solid gains early in the session. December wheat managed a new contract high but a slow-down in new buying and some profit-taking type selling helped spark a 10 cent set-back off of the early highs into the mid-session. Harsh weather in the Dakota's and Montana may peak today with some cooler weather and light rains in the eastern areas in the forecast on Thursday. However, hot and dry weather in Saskatchewan has taken a tool on the Canadian wheat crop with crop conditions falling to 55% good to excellent from 80% two weeks ago. A Canadian Wheat Board member indicated that the hot and dry trend is hurting yield potential. A lack of follow-through to the upside in the other grains contributed to the mid-session set-back. Egypt bought 290,000 tonnes of wheat at their overnight tender with 175,000 of the total coming from the US. Algeria is in the market for at least 100,000 tonnes of wheat. Extremely hot weather in the western sections of the spring wheat belt added to the bullish tone this morning. The weekly Spring Wheat Conditions report showed 75% was rated good/excellent compared to 76% last week and 34% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%. The weekly update also showed that only 83% of the Oklahoma crop is harvested as compared with 100% on average. If one assumes the average state yield, this represents 19.7 million bushels of wheat which may never be harvested.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago aktuell minus 2 auf 658. Tief/Hoch 653/659. Umsatz bisher rund 2.300.

November Weizen Hannover plus 1 auf 215. Tief/Hoch 213.70/215. Geld/Brief 210.--/--.--) (*) Umsatz 16, davon 13 November.

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Anmerkung: Briefkurs 250 ist nicht ernst zu nehmen. Trotz neuer Höchstkurse hat anscheinend niemand den Mut, Verkaufaufträge in den Markt zu geben.

Persönliche Anmerkung: Ich habe meine 2 Weizen Futures, Kauf bei 163.20, heute zu 213.70 glattgestellt. Nettogewinn exakt plus 5.000 Euro. Die Euphorie ist mir zu gross geworden.

Realtimekurse: http://www.rmx-forum.de/cgi-bin/index.pl?SRT=1

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/25/2007

September wheat traded 3/4 of a cent lower overnight.

Ideas that the weather problems in Europe have peaked and that the market is overbought helped spark the slight weakness overnight. While the heat in the Dakotas is hitting the headlines, the spring wheat crops in this region are nearly ready to harvest and the heat late in the growing season has helped prepare the crop for harvest which has already started in some areas. Of greater concern is the hot and dry weather which is hitting at a critical stage of development for the crops in Alberta and Saskatchewan. All-time record high temperatures are being hit in some areas of Canada this week and after a few days of cooler weather, the heat and dryness looks to return next week. Talk that European rains have caused damage to the crop ready for harvest with estimates of up to 3 million tonnes in losses added to the bullish tone yesterday. Funds were noted buyers of nearly 4,000 contracts yesterday. Spain's Ag Minister this morning believes the soft wheat harvest may total 5 million tonnes this year from 4 million last year. Heavy rains in France and Germany along with floods in the UK helped support a surge to new highs at the European exchanges. With Egypt buying 290,000 tonnes yesterday and Algeria tendering for 100,000 tonnes, traders are less concerned with a decline in export demand due to high prices.

Fears of declining production in Europe due to poor weather for harvest and continued strong demand for US wheat for export helped spark solid gains early in the session yesterday. December wheat managed a new contract high but a slow-down in new buying and some profit-taking type selling helped spark a 10 cent set-back off of the early highs into the mid-session. Harsh weather in the Dakota's and Montana may peak today with some cooler weather and light rains in the eastern areas in the forecast on Thursday. However, hot and dry weather in Saskatchewan has taken a tool on the Canadian wheat crop with crop conditions falling to 55% good to excellent from 80% two weeks ago. A Canadian Wheat Board member indicated that the hot and dry trend is hurting yield potential. A lack of follow-through to the upside in the other grains contributed to the mid-session set-back. Egypt bought 290,000 tonnes of wheat at their overnight tender with 175,000 of the total coming from the US. Algeria is in the market for at least 100,000 tonnes of wheat. Extremely hot weather in the western sections of the spring wheat belt added to the bullish tone this morning. The weekly Spring Wheat Conditions report showed 75% was rated good/excellent compared to 76% last week and 34% last year. The 10 year average for this time of year is 59%.

The western portion of the northern plains continues to see hot and dry conditions for the next few days but cools down in the eastern sections of the Dakotas with some chance of a shower. Wheat basis at the Gulf was higher yesterday. The weekly crop updates on Monday afternoon showed that only 83% of the Oklahoma winter wheat crop was harvested as of July 22nd as compared with 100% on average. If one assumes the average state yield, this represents 19.7 million bushels of wheat which may never be harvested. Crop losses in Europe and threatening weather for Canada should keep the trend up.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 1.75 auf 657.25. Tief/Hoch653/659. Umsatz bisher rund 2.300.

November Weizen Hannover plus 1 auf 215. Tief/Hoch 210/215. Geld/Brief 211/216. Umsatz 41, davon 35 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/25/2007

December Wheat finished down 6 1/2 at 652 1/2, 5 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 8 at 634. This was 3 up from the low and 7 off the high.

Ideas that the weather threat in Europe had peaked and reports of good yield potential for the spring wheat crop in North Dakota helped pressure the market early in the session. Talk of the overbought technical condition of the market and news that some light showers could break-up the northern plains heat for a few days before the heat returns on the weekend added to the short-term negative tone. A cold front is moving east through the Canadian Prairies and bringing near 1/4 inch of badly need rain to key producing areas. However, it appears that the hot and dry weather will return to the region into the weekend. The spring wheat crop tour participants indicated that wheat yields in North Dakota were expected to be slightly above the 5-year average was also seen as somewhat disappointing to the bulls. A German Farmers Association believes the wheat crop will come in near 10-15% below the 22.3 million tonnes posted last year along with yield concerns in France helped provide some underlying support. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 950,000 to 1.1 million tonnes as compared with 769,100 tonnes last week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 4.50 auf 657. Tief/Hoch 651/657.50. Umsatz bisher rund 2.400.

November Weizen Hannover plus 0,40 auf 216. Tief/Hoch 211/216. Geld/Brief 213/220.90. Umsatz 27, davon 15 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/26/2007

September wheat traded 8 3/4 cents higher overnight.

Ideas that the North Dakota crop is in good condition and long liquidation selling after recent strong gains helped spark the sell-off yesterday. However, fears of further damage to crops in Canada and in Europe for the wet harvest helped to support higher trade overnight. More rain in the forecast for Germany and France combined with continued talk of lower than expected yields in Europe has helped provide underlying support to the wheat market. While conditions seem to be improving for the new Australia crop, dryness, and now extreme cold could be setting back the Argentina production outlook. In addition, wet weather in the spring forced the planting of the Canadian crop to be later than normal and the wheat in many fields in Canada are heading right into the heat wave which is expected to re-emerge soon. Funds were noted sellers of nearly 2,000 contracts yesterday. The drought in Bulgaria has cut the wheat crop to a 5-year low of near 2.1 million tonnes as compared with 3.2 million last year. Jordan bought 100,000 tonnes of hard wheat at their tender overnight which is thought to have come from Russia. South Korea millers seek 42,500 tonnes of US wheat and Taiwan millers are tendering for 103,220 tonnes of US wheat.

Ideas that the weather threat in Europe had peaked and reports of good yield potential for the spring wheat crop in North Dakota helped pressure the market early in the session yesterday. Talk of the overbought technical condition of the market and news that some light showers could break-up the northern plains heat for a few days before the heat returns on the weekend added to the short-term negative tone. The spring wheat crop tour participants indicated that wheat yields in North Dakota were expected to be slightly above the 5-year average was also seen as somewhat disappointing to the bulls. A German Farmers Association believes the wheat crop will come in near 10-15% below the 22.3 million tonnes posted last year along with yield concerns in France helped provide some underlying support.

A cold front is moving east through the Canadian Prairies and bringing nearly 1/4 inch of badly need rain to key producing areas. However, it appears that the hot and dry weather will return to the region into the weekend. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady with a firm tone. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales between 950,000 and 1.1 million tonnes as compared with 769,100 tonnes last week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 7.50 auf 660. Tief/Hoch 651./661.25. Umsatz bisher rund 3.500.

November Weizen Hannover plus plus 1.40 auf 217 (*). Tief/Hoch 211/217. Umsatz 59, davon 21 November.

(*) Letzter Umsatz von 14.34 Uhr. Der realistische Kurs würde eher bei 218/219 liegen.

Bild entfernt.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/26/2007

December Wheat finished up 16 1/2 at 669, 9 off the high and 12 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 17 at 651. This was 11 up from the low and 13 off the high.

Strong export sales and growing concerns for further crop losses in France, Germany and Canada helped spark aggressive new buying from funds and a surge to new contract highs early in the session. The market managed to hold on to much of the gains despite a sharp break in other commodity markets and the stock market. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at a whopping 2.077 million metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 950,000-1.1 million. Cumulative sales have already reached 36.6% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 26.4% on average over the last five years. Sales of 401,500 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. On top of the weekly sales, the USDA reported a sale of 100,000 tonnes of US wheat to Algeria. Jordan bought 100,000 tonnes of hard wheat at their tender; likely from Russia. Taiwan seeks 103,220 tonnes of US wheat and South Korea is in the market for 42,200 tonnes of US wheat. Bulgaria officials indicated a 5-year low in wheat production this season due to the drought with estimates of just 2.1 million tonnes as compared with 3.2 million tonnes last year. French wheat futures posted new contract highs again today with the downgrading of the crop size.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 3.75 auf 665.25. Tief/Hoch 661.75/668. Umsatz bisher rund 2.600.

November Weizen Hannover plus 4.10 auf 220.60. Tief/Hoch 219/220.60. Geld/Brief 219/222. Umsatz 9, davon 7 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/27/2007

September wheat traded 1 cent lower overnight.

After a 10% surge in French wheat futures this week, the market posted a new high and pushed lower overnight. Fears of more production problems with the crop harvest in France and Germany, solid export demand for US wheat and fears that there could be damage to yield potential in Canada due to hot and sometimes dry weather helped spark the run to contract highs and a new 11-year high for nearby futures. Weekly export sales reached the highest since 1996 at over 2 million tonnes as end user buyers have been very active despite the current relatively high price. On top of the weekly sales, Algeria bought 100,000 tonnes of US wheat, Taiwan bought 98,770 tonnes of US wheat and South Korea bought 22,500 tonnes of US wheat. These sales will show up in next week's sales totals. Funds were noted buyers of nearly 4,000 contracts yesterday. The spring wheat crop tour participants this week pegged the average yield at 37.3 bu/acre, which is up from 31.7 as last year's tour estimate and a 5-year average yield of 35.1 bu/acre.

Strong export sales and growing concerns for further crop losses in France, Germany and Canada helped spark aggressive new buying from funds and a surge to new contract highs early in the session. The market managed to hold on to much of the gains despite a sharp break in other commodity markets and the stock market. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at a whopping 2.077 million metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 950,000 and 1.1 million. Sales of 401,500 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. On top of the weekly sales, the USDA reported a sale of 100,000 tonnes of US wheat to Algeria. Jordan bought 100,000 tonnes of hard wheat at their tender; likely from Russia. Taiwan seeks 103,220 tonnes of US wheat and South Korea is in the market for 42,200 tonnes of US wheat. Bulgaria officials indicated a 5-year low in wheat production this season due to the drought with estimates of just 2.1 million tonnes as compared with 3.2 million tonnes last year. French wheat futures posted new contract highs again today with the downgrading of the crop size.

The northern plains turn hot and dry again on the weekend and into early next week. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady/firm yesterday despite the surge in futures as export demand is strong. Cumulative export sales for wheat for the 2007/2008 season have already reached 36.6% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 26.4% on average over the last five years.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago wie am Vormittag minus 3.75 auf 665.25. Tief/Hoch 661.75/668. Umsatz bisher rund 2.900.

November Weizen Hannover noch immer plus 4.10 auf 220.60. Geld/Brief 216.50/220. Umsatz 19, davon 7 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/27/2007

December Wheat finished unchanged at 669, 2 off the high and 8 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 2 1/4 at 653 1/4. This was 9 1/4 up from the low and 3 1/4 off the high.

Ideas that futures were overbought and a set-back in French wheat futures overnight helped spark the early weakness but the market found support from export news again this morning. French wheat closed lower but not before contract highs early. The highs were also all-time highs since futures began trading in 1998. The USDA announced that exporters have sold 200,000 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat to Iraq. This supported Kansas City wheat more than Chicago. Taiwan also bought 98,770 tonnes of US wheat overnight and South Korea millers bought 42,700 tonnes of US wheat. The spring wheat crop tour participants this week pegged the average yield at 37.3 bu/acre, which is up from 31.7 as last year's tour estimate and a 5-year average yield of 35.1 bu/acre. Reports of increased chances of rain in central Europe for the weekend failed to provide much support but could disrupt harvest again. A turn lower in the stock market and other commodity markets helped spark increased long liquidation selling. Strong export demand supported a late jump in Kansas City Wheat which supported the late bounce.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 1.50 auf 667.50. Tief/Hoch 664.50/674. Umsatz bisher rund 2.100.

November Weizen Hannover minus 0.70 auf 219. Geld/Brief 217/219. Umsatz 9, davon 8 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 7/30/2007

September wheat traded 1/2 of a cent lower overnight.

Troubles with the European wheat harvest and continued tight world supply has helped boost US exports and helped drive the market to new 11-year highs in the past week. While there is a steady flow of talk of the overbought condition of the market, the Commitment of Traders reports show only a light net long position from speculators. In addition, while there is plenty of talk that the market is too high priced, end user buyers remain active on only minor breaks. The surge in exports from the US may begin to suggest to some traders that US supply of high quality wheat will continue to tighten ahead. Ending stocks in the US are already tight, so unless the export pace slows soon, there may be some conclusions that prices need to move higher to limit the export demand. Bangladesh issued a tender on Saturday for 112,000 tonnes of wheat. Iraq is tendering for at least 50,000 tonnes.

Ideas that futures were overbought and a setback in French wheat futures helped spark the early weakness on Friday, but the market found support from export news again. French wheat closed lower on Friday but not before setting contract highs early. The day's highs were also all-time highs since futures began trading in 1998. The USDA announced that exporters have sold 200,000 tonnes of US hard red winter wheat to Iraq. This supported Kansas City wheat more than Chicago on Friday. Taiwan also bought 98,770 tonnes of US wheat and South Korea millers bought 42,700 tonnes of US wheat. The spring wheat crop tour participants last week pegged the average yield at 37.3 bu/acre, which was up from 31.7 as last year's tour estimate and a 5-year average yield of 35.1 bu/acre. Reports of increased chances of rain in central Europe for the weekend failed to provide much support, but it could disrupt harvest again. A turn lower in the stock market and other commodity markets helped spark increased long liquidation selling. Strong export demand supported a late jump in Kansas City Wheat which supported the late bounce.

Cooler and sometimes rainy weather should continue to disrupt the wheat harvest in central Europe. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady with active interest for exportable wheat. Algeria bought at least 300,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat and Iraq remains more active. The Commitment of Traders report with options showed the market in a positive structural setup with non-commercial traders (funds) net long and non-reportable traders (small specs) net short 27,931 contracts. The supplemental report which excludes index funds showed that trend-following funds were net long just 1,213 contracts, not the net long of 28,035 contracts posted in the traditional report. It should not take much in the way of supply news to see the market remain in a steady uptrend.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 0.75 auf 668.25. Tief/Hoch 664.50/674. Umsatz bisher rund 2.200.

November Weizen Hannover minus 1.70 auf 218. Tief/Hoch 217/219. Geld/Brief 215/218. Umsatz 35, davon 21 November.

Am Donnerstag, 02.08.07, wird an der RMX Hannover der Terminhandel Weizen für die Ernte 2008 aufgenommen. Terminmonat sind 0808, 1108, 0109, 0309 und 0509. Damit sind auch Spreads alte Ernte gegen neue Ernte handelbar. Es ist zu erwarten dass der Kontrakt August 2008 etwa 40 Euro unterhalb des Kontraktes Mai 2007 gehandelt wird.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/30/2007

December Wheat finished down 12 1/4 at 656 3/4, 9 3/4 off the high and 7 3/4 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 15 3/4 at 637 1/2. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 12 1/2 off the high.

The higher opening failed to find new buying support and a long liquidation selling trend developed into the mid-session as European prices also failed to follow-through up and the set-back in Europe overflowed to the US market. Some weather concerns in Europe helped support the early bounce but talk of the overbought technical condition and ideas that the spring wheat crop is maturing nicely helped to pressure. Iraq announced another tender for at least 50,000 tonnes and Bangladesh seeks 112,000 tonnes. Weekly export inspections came in at 17.2 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 13-14 million. Cumulative shipments have reached 12.6% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 13.1% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. A drier weather trend for Europe for this week and the overbought technical condition seemed to be the primary reason for the significant set-back.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 2.50 auf 654.75. Tief/Hoch 651/658. Umsatz rund 5.400.

November Weizen Hannover minus 1 auf 214. Tief/Hoch 212/215. Geld/Brief 213/217. Umsatz 13, alles November 2007.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 7/31/2007

December Wheat finished down 7 3/4 at 649, 7 1/2 off the high and 3 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 7 1/2 at 630. This was 3 up from the low and 8 off the high.

The market opened slightly lower and closed moderately lower as a steady flow of long liquidation selling (thought to be profit-taking) helped pressure the market into the close despite firm trade in the other grains. Follow-through technical selling after the sharp liquidation break yesterday along with talk of better weather for harvest in Europe helped trigger the lower trade early in the session and a move to a new 6-session low. Weakness in French wheat futures and ideas that supply will increase with increasing harvest activity in the US and Europe was seen as a negative factor. The weekly update showed that spring wheat harvest had reached 10% complete by Sunday, up from 7% as the 10-year average. The spring wheat crop was rated 68% in good/excellent condition as compared to 75% last week and 32% last year. The winter wheat crop harvest reached 88% complete compared to 90% last year. Japan is tendering to buy 146,000 tonnes of wheat from the US, Canada or Australia at their weekly tender. A government official in Ukraine indicates that grain exports could slip to near 5 million tonnes this season as compared with 9.6 million last year.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 1.50 auf 650.50. Tief/Hoch 648.75/653. Umsatz rund 3.800.

November Weizen Hannover bisher ungehandelt, Geld/Brief 213/214, gestern 212.60.

Januar Weizen Hannover umverändert 214, Hoch/Tief 214, Geld/Brief 214/214.50. Umsatz 5, alle Januar.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/1/2007

September wheat traded 1 1/2 cents higher overnight.

Egypt tendered for wheat overnight, and an announcement ahead of the opening could have an impact. Fewer concerns for the crop in France as weather has turned drier helped spark the sell-off over the past few session, but with more rains into Germany this week, there will still be uncertainty over the size of the European wheat crop. Funds were noted sellers of near 1,000 contracts yesterday. Hot and dry weather in the Canadian Prairies is also a concern, and more damage is possible in the next week for southern Alberta and southwest Saskatchewan. Iraq bought near 100,000 tonnes of US hard wheat and is still negotiating for at least 300,000 more. Russia wheat production is expected to reach 45.5-47.0 million tonnes this season, up 1.5 million from the official early June forecast and up from 45 million tonnes last year. Taiwan officials decided to cut their wheat import tariff in half for the next 6 months from 6.5% now. South Korea bought 20,500 tonnes of US wheat overnight. A French analyst cut the 2007 wheat production estimate to 32.3 million tonnes from 34.9 million tonnes expected in mid-May. Japan is tendering to buy 146,000 tonnes of wheat from the US, Canada or Australia at their weekly tender. A government official in Ukraine indicates that grain exports could slip to near 5 million tonnes this season as compared with 9.6 million last year.

The market opened slightly lower yesterday and closed moderately lower as a steady flow of long liquidation selling (thought to be profit-taking) helped pressure the market into the close despite firm trade in the other grains. Follow-through technical selling after the sharp liquidation break yesterday along with talk of better weather for harvest in Europe helped trigger the lower trade early in the session and a move to a new 6-session low. Weakness in French wheat futures and ideas that supply will increase with increasing harvest activity in the US and Europe were seen as negative factors. The weekly update showed that spring wheat harvest had reached 10% complete by Sunday, up from 7% as the 10-year average. The spring wheat crop was rated 68% in good/excellent condition as compared to 75% last week and 32% last year. The winter wheat crop harvest reached 88% complete compared to 90% last year.

The Canadian wheat crop growing areas should continue to see stressful weather ahead. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady/firm due to active demand and the Egypt tender. With a sharp drop in production and already tight ending stocks forecasts, the sharp increase in export demand threatens to pull US ending stocks to a historically tight level.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago: unverändert gegenüber dem letzten Bericht.

November Weizen Hannover plus 1.40 auf 214. Tief/Hoch 214. Geld/Brief 213/215. Umsatz 21, davon 10 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/1/2007

December Wheat finished up 7 at 656, 2 off the high and 17 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 6 at 636. This was 16 up from the low and 1 off the high.

December wheat held support and closed higher on the day and up 17 cents from the lows. The impressive late rally came despite weaker price action in the other grains and there was talk of liquidation of recently established corn/wheat spreads as a factor to support. Strength in the other grains supported the higher opening but a turn lower in corn and a reaction to the Egypt tender helped spark the selling pressure and move to a new 7-session low into the mid-session. Egypt bought 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia this morning and none from the US in their overnight tender. Since Egypt bought 290,000 from the US in the last tender, traders were disappointed with the news. Iran bought 100,000 tonnes of US wheat and seeks at least 300,000 tonnes more. South Korea bought 20,500 tonnes of US wheat overnight and Taiwan is expected to cut their import tariff in half. The Canadian Prairie crop may be at risk to more yield problems due to hot and dry conditions in parts of the region. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking wheat sales near 650,000-950,000 tonnes as compared with 2.077 million tonnes last week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 8 auf 664. Tief/Hoch 657/664. Umsatz rund 4.300.

November Weizen Hannover bisher ohne Umsatz, Geld/Brief 213/215, Vortag 214.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/2/2007

September wheat traded 8 1/4 cents higher overnight.

The improved technical action along with some relief from the financial markets and the tightening world and US ending stocks situation leaves a bullish undertone to the market today. The market recovered from early steep losses to close higher and near the highs of the day yesterday. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts. The recovery in a wide range of other commodity markets along with renewed concerns for lower than expected crops in Europe and Canada has provided underlying support. More rain in the forecast for central Europe for early next week adds to the positive tone. India may lift custom duties on wheat flour and could float a tender for grain imports in August in order to build depleted stocks. This opens the door for more US participation, as flour does not have the same stringent tests as wheat does entering India. Japan bought 146,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender, with 86,000 of the total coming from the US. Ukraine expects a wheat crop near 12.3-13.3 million tonnes as compared with 13.95 million tonnes last year and consumption near 12 million tonnes. French wheat prices pushed sharply higher early today.

December wheat held support yesterday and closed higher on the day and up 17 cents from the lows. The impressive late rally came despite weaker price action in the other grains, and there was talk of liquidation of recently established corn/wheat spreads as a factor to support. Strength in the other grains supported the higher opening, but a turn lower in corn and a reaction to the Egypt tender helped spark the selling pressure and move to a new 7-session low into the mid-session. Egypt bought 150,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia yesterday morning and none from the US. Since Egypt bought 290,000 from the US in the last tender, traders were disappointed with the news. Iran bought 100,000 tonnes of US wheat and seeks at least 300,000 tonnes more. South Korea bought 20,500 tonnes of US wheat Tuesday night and Taiwan is expected to cut their import tariff in half. The Canadian Prairie crop may be at risk to more yield problems due to hot and dry conditions in parts of the region.

The Canadian wheat crop growing areas should continue to see stressful weather ahead into next week. Rains in Europe early next week could be disruptive to harvest. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady/firm due to active demand for US wheat. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking wheat sales near 650,000-950,000 tonnes as compared with 2.077 million tonnes last week.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 11 auf 667. Tief/Hoch 657/667.50. Umsatz und 7.400.

November Weizen Hannover plus 3 auf 217. Tief/Hoch 215/217. Geld/Brief 215/218. Umsatz 24, davon 13 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/2/2007

December Wheat finished up 7 1/2 at 663 1/2, 6 off the high and 3 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 5 3/4 at 641 3/4. This was 3/4 up from the low and 9 1/4 off the high.

The close was higher but 8 1/2 cents off of the early highs as profit-taking emerged late in the day. Funds were noted buyers of near 1,500 contracts into the mid-session and a lack of new selling interest more than aggressive buying supported the early strong gains. A big export sales number, higher trade in Europe and continued heat in southern Canadian wheat areas helped spark the early strong gains. After the initial spurt higher, some light profit-taking selling helped pull the market toward the lows into the mid-session. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 1.77 million tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 650,000-950,000. Cumulative sales have already reached 42.7% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 28.4% on average over the last five years. Sales have averaged 1.437 million tonnes over the past 4 weeks and need to average just 371,100 metric tonnes per week to reach the USDA estimate. Talk of rain into central Europe for next week may have added to the positive tone. Japan bought 146,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 86,000 of the total coming from the US.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 5 auf 668.50. Tief/Hoch 663.50/668.75. Umsatz rund 1.800.

November Weizen Hannover plus 2 auf 220. Tief/Hoch 220. Geld/Brief 213.60/225. Umsatz 13, davon 2 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/3/2007

September wheat traded 6 1/4 cents higher overnight.

More rains into France and a sharp revision lower in the Canadian crop forecast helped support higher trade overnight. In addition, another large export sales number yesterday indicates strong demand from end users. The high price for an extended time frame is attracting more and more selling pressure for the new crop contracts in Chicago and Kansas City. The Canadian Wheat Board lowered their production forecast for western Canada to 20 million tonnes, down 6% from their June forecast and down 16% from last year. More rains are expected in France today after rain hit yesterday to disrupt harvest. However, dry and warm conditions look to return for the weekend. Canada hopes to sell about 300,000 tonnes to Brazil this year, as Brazil is pursuing wheat from North America. Morocco suspended duties and taxes on cereal imports, and the country is expected to tender for soft wheat soon. Morocco is expected to triple imports of soft wheat this year to about 3 million tonnes due to drought. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts on the session yesterday.

The close was higher yesterday but 8 1/2 cents off of the early highs as profit-taking emerged late in the day. Funds were noted buyers of near 1,500 contracts into the mid-session, and a lack of new selling interest more than aggressive buying supported the early strong gains. A big export sales number, higher trade in Europe and continued heat in southern Canadian wheat areas helped spark the early strong gains. After the initial spurt higher, some light profit-taking selling helped pull the market toward the lows into the mid-session. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 1.77 million tonnes, which was well above trade expectations. Talk of rain into central Europe for next week may have added to the positive tone. Japan bought 146,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 86,000 of the total coming from the US.

The Canadian wheat crop growing areas should continue to see stressful weather into next week. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady but with a firm undertone as importers continue to shift attention to US exporters with harvest delay problems in Europe. Cumulative export sales for wheat have already reached 42.7% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 28.4% on average over the last five years. Sales have averaged 1.437 million tonnes over the past 4 weeks and need to average just 371,100 metric tonnes per week to reach the USDA estimate.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 3.75 auf 667. Tief/Hoch 663.50/668.75. Umsatz rund 3.100.

November Weizen Hannover plus 7 auf 225. Tief/Hoch 220/225. Geld/Brief 221/225. Umsatz 71, davon 31 November.

Neue Höchstkurse, Januar in der Spitze plus 8 auf 226 gehandelt.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/3/2007

December Wheat finished up 5 1/2 at 669, 1 off the high and 5 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 8 1/4 at 650. This was 5 up from the low and 2 off the high.

The sharp drop in wheat production expected from Europe this year has sparked a surge in interest in US wheat and continues to provide support. End users who typically buy wheat from Europe are scrambling for coverage and the Australia new crop will not be harvested until later this year. Cumulative export sales for US wheat have already reached 42.7% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 28.4% on average over the last five years. Sales have averaged 1.437 million tonnes over the past 4 weeks and need to average just 371,100 metric tonnes per week to reach the USDA estimate. Another jump in European wheat prices overnight combined with growing concerns for the Canadian crop due to very hot and dry weather helped support the solid gains early in the session today. In addition, there is some talk that the central and northern grain areas of Canada could be hit with increasing rain which is coming at a time when producers want drier weather to mature the crop ahead of harvest. This news helped support. Research consulting firm Informa pegged the spring wheat crop in the US at 519 million bushels which is above the recent USDA estimate at 498 million bushels.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 3,75 auf 665.25. Tief/Hoch 660.50/667. Umsatz rund 4.600.

November Weizen Hannover bisher umsatzlos. Geld/Brief 221/226, Vortag 225.

September Weizen plus 2 auf 222, ein neues Kontrakthoch. Geld/Brief -/222. Umsatz 1.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/6/2007

September wheat traded 3 cents lower overnight.

The market is following the other grains lower in the overnight action, as better than expected weather for the US has hit corn and soybean values. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts on Friday, which helped support a bounce. Morocco is tendering for almost 630,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. This is on top of a previous tender for 350,000 tonnes. Morocco is expected to import near 3 million tonnes this season from near 1 million last year due to drought problems early in their growing season. Germany looks wet this week, which might stall their harvest. While old crop contracts have remained firm, new crop July contracts in Chicago and Kansas City have come under increased selling pressure with fears of a jump in planted area and better weather expectations for most of the key world producers for next year. However, tightness in supply for this season and difficulty in obtaining high quality wheat for export has provided solid support. Traders will keep a close eye on the world production and ending stock numbers for the key report coming up Friday. US exports have been strong. Cumulative export sales for wheat have already reached 42.7% of the USDA forecast for the entire season as compared to 28.4% on average over the last five years. Sales have averaged 1.437 million tonnes over the past 4 weeks and need to average just 371,100 metric tonnes per week to reach the USDA estimate.

The sharp drop in wheat production expected from Europe this year has sparked a surge in interest in US wheat and continues to provide support. End users who typically buy wheat from Europe are scrambling for coverage, and the Australia new crop will not be harvested until later this year. Another jump in European wheat prices combined with growing concerns for the Canadian crop due to very hot and dry weather helped support the solid gains early in the session on Friday. In addition, there is some talk that the central and northern grain areas of Canada could be hit with increasing rain which is coming at a time when producers want drier weather to mature the crop ahead of harvest. This news helped support. Research consulting firm Informa pegged the spring wheat crop in the US at 519 million bushels, which is above the recent USDA estimate at 498 million bushels. All wheat production was pegged at 2.154 billion bushels, up 16 million bushels from the last USDA forecast.

The Argentina growing areas still look too dry to plant. Rain is expected to delay harvest in Germany. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady but with a firm undertone as importers continue to shift attention to US exporters with harvest delay problems in Europe. The Commitment of Traders report with options showed the market in a bullish setup with non-commercial traders (funds) net long near 28,000 contracts and non-reportable traders (small specs) net short near 28,000 contracts. This leaves the market vulnerable to both increased fund buying and increased small trader short-covering if resistance levels are violated. Trend-following funds are only net long 1,458 contracts, so the market is far from an overbought condition.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 3.50 auf 665.75. Tief/Hoch 660.50/667. Umsatz rund 4.700.

JANUAR Weizen Hannover unverändert 226. Tief/Hoch 224.50/226. Geld/Brief 225/226, Umsatz 30, davon 18 Januar. Neue Höchstpreise einzelner Terminmonate.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/6/2007

December Wheat finished up 14 1/2 at 683 1/2, 1 1/2 off the high and 19 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed up 14 at 664. This was 19 up from the low and 1 off the high.

The market pushed to new contract highs and experienced a move to the highest level since May of 1996 when the market posted a high of 690 for the month. The market followed the other grain markets lower early in the session but continued positive news on the export front and fears of tightening world and US ending stocks helped support solid gains into the mid-session. Weekly export inspections, released during the trading session, came in at 25.1 million bushels as compared with trade expectations of 16-20 million bushels. Funds were noted buyers into the mid-session despite the weakness in the other grains. Morocco is tendering for almost 630,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. This is on top of a previous tender for 350,000 tonnes. Morocco is expected to import near 3 million tonnes this season from near 1 million last year due to drought problems early in their growing season. Germany looks wet this week, which might stall their harvest.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 4.50 auf 687.75. Tief/Hoch 683.50/689.50. Umsatz rund 4.200.

November Weizen Hannover plus 3 auf 228. Tief/Hoch 225.40/228. Geld/Brief 226/230. Umsatz 10, davon 6 November.

Die Monate Januar, März und Mai wurden mit 230 gehandelt, jeweils 4 Euro über dem Settlementpreis des Vortags - neue Höchstkurse in allen Monaten.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/7/2007

September wheat traded 5 1/4 cents higher overnight.

French wheat futures pushed sharply higher and to new all-time highs, as continued strong demand for old crop wheat and tightening world supply helped support. Morocco is tendering for nearly 1 million tonnes of wheat and Egypt announced a tender after the close yesterday for 55,000-60,000 tonnes of US, French, Australian, Canadian, German, Australian and/or Kazakhstan wheat for September 11-30 shipment. The Egypt tender results could be announced before the opening and may impact the early trade action. Funds were noted buyers of near 3,500 contracts yesterday. With the US futures posting 11-year highs for the nearby contract and the mature trend, it is interesting that the trend-following funds were net long just 1,458 contracts as of July 31st posted in the COT report. Ideas that demand will slow as end users see new crop priced at a much lower level has kept many traders focused on just how low new crop futures may go given the worldwide incentive to produce more wheat next year instead of how high old crop prices may need to move to discourage usage. With Egypt, Iraq and Morocco all looking for significant import offers and export sales already well ahead of the pace to reach the USDA projections, demand has stayed much stronger than traders have anticipated. Egypt has been buying US soft red winter wheat lately, and the news helped firm the Gulf basis.

The market pushed to new contract highs yesterday and experienced a move to the highest level since May of 1996 when the market posted a high of 690 for the month. The market followed the other grain markets lower early in the session, but continued positive news on the export front and fears of tightening world and US ending stocks helped support solid gains into the mid-session. Weekly export inspections, released during the trading session, came in at 25.1 million bushels, which was above trade expectations. Funds were noted buyers into the mid-session despite the weakness in the other grains. Morocco is tendering for almost 630,000 tonnes of optional origin wheat. This is on top of a previous tender for 350,000 tonnes. Morocco is expected to import near 3 million tonnes this season from near 1 million last year due to drought problems early in their growing season. Germany looks wet this week, which might stall their harvest.

Thunderstorm activity could develop through Western Europe in the next several days, which would disrupt harvest. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady/firm after the Egypt tender but was slightly weaker before the tender due to sharply higher futures trade. The weekly crop update showed that 94% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested vs. a 5-year average near 91%. Spring wheat is now 29% harvested as compared with 21% as the 5-year average. Close in support for December wheat comes in at 683 3/4 with 694 1/2 and 699 as the next objectives.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 5 auf 688.50. Tief/Hoch 683.50/689.50. Umsatz rund 4.700.

November Weizen Hannover plus 5 auf 230. Tief/Hoch 225.40/230. Geld/Brief 228/231. Umsatz 62, davon 43 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/7/2007

December Wheat finished down 1 at 682 1/2, 3 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 1 1/2 at 662 1/2. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.

The new contract high and lower close could attract some technical long liquidation selling pressure overnight as the September futures opened at a new contract high and closed lower. The opening was also the highest price for the nearby contract since May of 1996. For the USDA Crop Production report on Friday, the average trade estimate for all wheat production came in at 2.13 billion bushels (2.086-2.165) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.812 billion. Winter wheat production is expected at 1.55 billion bushels (1.53-1.572) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 1.562 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.298 billion. Traders look for spring wheat production to increase 9 million bushels from the July forecast to 507 million bushels (range 472-535). French wheat futures pushed to new highs this morning which added to the positive tone early. News that Egypt bought 145,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and none from the US in their overnight tender may have helped spark long liquidation selling after the higher opening. Japan seeks 131,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender and Morocco is still in the market for nearly 1 million tonnes. The weekly crop update showed that 94% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested vs. a 5-year average near 91%. Spring wheat is now 29% harvested as compared with 21% as the 5-year average.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 1.50 auf 684. Tief/Hoch 681/684.75. Umsatz rund 2.500.

November Weizen Hannover plus 3.30 auf 233. Tief/Hoch 231/233. Geld/Brief 224.50/234. Umsatz 14, davon 7 November.

Neue Allzeithochs im November und Januar Kontrakt.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/8/2007

September wheat traded 2 1/4 cents higher overnight.

Strength in the other grains and new highs for European wheat helped support the bounce overnight. From a technical perspective, the new contract high and lower close yesterday is a sign of a potential top for wheat. The trade may watch to see if the highs from yesterday hold and if the market can close lower for the week to confirm a more negative chart pattern. September wheat closed at 650 last week and new highs over 670 3/4 will negate the reversal. The USDA attache in Canada pegged the 2007/2008 crop at 22.1 million tonnes from 25.3 million last year. Egypt is tendering to buy 100,000 tonnes of wheat for October delivery, and it is not clear if the tender is for US or optional origin. European Union wheat prices have jumped to fresh 14-year highs, and French new crop futures posted all-time highs overnight (trading since 1998). The strong export pace has traders looking for an adjustment higher in exports to offset a possible jump in production for the USDA supply/demand report. For Friday's report, traders are looking for ending stocks near 415 million bushels (range 365-544) as compared with 418 million last month. Iraq has finalized deals to import 450,000 tonnes of wheat flour from several suppliers in the region. This is a large order to fill and could help support prices in the region.

The new contract high and lower close yesterday could attract some technical long liquidation selling pressure. The opening was also the highest price for the nearby contract since May of 1996. French wheat futures pushed to new highs Tuesday morning, which added to the positive tone early. News that Egypt bought 145,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and none from the US in their tender Monday night may have helped spark long liquidation selling after the higher opening yesterday. Japan seeks 131,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender and Morocco is still in the market for nearly 1 million tonnes. The weekly crop update showed that 94% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested vs. a 5-year average near 91%. Spring wheat is now 29% harvested as compared with 21% as the 5-year average.

Dryness in Argentina early in their crop season is a growing concern for the trade as plantings have been delayed in some areas. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady. For the USDA Crop Production report on Friday, the average trade estimate for all wheat production came in at 2.13 billion bushels (2.086-2.165) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.812 billion. Winter wheat production is expected at 1.55 billion bushels (1.53-1.572) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 1.562 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.298 billion. Traders look for spring wheat production to increase 9 million bushels from the July forecast to 507 million bushels (range 472-535).

(Quell: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 1.75 auf 682. Tief/Hoch 681/684.75. Umsatz rund 3.000.

November Weizen Hannover plus 3.30 auf 233. Tief/Hoch 231/233. Geld/Brief 227.50/231.90. Umsatz 31, davon 7 November.

Allzeithochs in mehreren Terminmonaten.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/7/2007

December Wheat finished down 1 at 682 1/2, 3 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 1 1/2 at 662 1/2. This was 4 1/2 up from the low and 3 1/2 off the high.

The new contract high and lower close could attract some technical long liquidation selling pressure overnight as the September futures opened at a new contract high and closed lower. The opening was also the highest price for the nearby contract since May of 1996. For the USDA Crop Production report on Friday, the average trade estimate for all wheat production came in at 2.13 billion bushels (2.086-2.165) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.812 billion. Winter wheat production is expected at 1.55 billion bushels (1.53-1.572) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 1.562 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.298 billion. Traders look for spring wheat production to increase 9 million bushels from the July forecast to 507 million bushels (range 472-535). French wheat futures pushed to new highs this morning which added to the positive tone early. News that Egypt bought 145,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia and none from the US in their overnight tender may have helped spark long liquidation selling after the higher opening. Japan seeks 131,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender and Morocco is still in the market for nearly 1 million tonnes. The weekly crop update showed that 94% of the winter wheat crop is now harvested vs. a 5-year average near 91%. Spring wheat is now 29% harvested as compared with 21% as the 5-year average.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 2.75 auf 703.75. Tief/Hoch 697/707. Umsatz rund 9.500 (extrem hoch !).

November Weizen Hannover plus 3 auf 235. Tief/Hoch 232/235. Geld/Brief 232.50/239. Umsatz 16, davon 11 November.

Allzeithochs in allen gehandelten Monaten.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/9/2007

September wheat traded 10 1/4 cents higher overnight.

Fears that the USDA will show tightening world and US stocks in Friday's report has helped support a sharp rally in the past week, as end user buying has been active. News of demand from Egypt, Iraq and Morocco along with other routine business suggests that end user demand for future bookings remains strong. Funds were noted buyers of near 4,000 contracts, and commercial buying added to the bullish tone. The Brazilian Wheat Milling Association indicated that Brazil may need to import 7.1 million tonnes of wheat in 2007, up 8.7% from the previous year. This will push Brazil to the world's largest wheat importer. In addition, the organization believes that most of the remaining 2.7 million tonnes in import needs will come from the northern hemisphere, with Argentina about out of wheat. The US has booked 273,000 tonnes of wheat to Brazil since the beginning of July. Bulgaria is in talks to import at least 150,000 tonnes of wheat, as a severe drought cut the 2007 wheat crop by 35% to 2.1 million tonnes. Morocco's state grain agency has approved licenses to import 130,000 tonnes of European Union wheat. Japan bought 131,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 71,000 tonnes of the total coming from the US. Ideas that production problems from Europe and Canada will cause the USDA to trim world production and stocks in Friday's report helped provide underlying support. For the weekly export sales report, released before the opening, traders are looking for wheat sales near 600,000-1.0 million tonnes as compared with 1.741 million tonnes last week.

The new contract high early in the session yesterday negated the key reversal from the day before for September wheat, which helped support technical and fund buying into the mid-session. Funds were noted buyers of near 2,000 contracts into the mid-session. December wheat pushed to a new contract high for the third session in a row to close sharply higher on the day yesterday and also touched $7.00 per bushel. This is a new all-time high for a December contract. Another new contract high in Europe Tuesday night and news that Egypt was in the market for 100,000 tonnes of wheat lent support. Poor crop conditions reported in parts of Canada and news that Iraq finalized deals to import 450,000 tonnes of wheat flour were also seen as supportive forces. Taiwan has cut import tariffs on 7 agricultural products including wheat in an attempt to ease inflationary pressures.

The northern plains and Canadian prairies are expected to see cooler temps and some moisture, which is better weather filling out the crop. Wheat basis at the Gulf was steady. For the USDA Crop Production report on Friday, the average trade estimate for all wheat production came in at 2.13 billion bushels (2.086-2.165) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.812 billion. Winter wheat production is expected at 1.55 billion bushels (1.53-1.572) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 1.562 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.298 billion. Traders look for spring wheat production to increase 9 million bushels from the July forecast to 507 million bushels (range 472-535). Traders are looking for ending stocks near 415 million bushels (range 365-544) as compared with 418 million last month.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 5 auf 706. Tief/Hoch 697/707. Sehr hoher Umsatz von rund 11.000 Kontrakten.

November Weizen Hannover plus 8 auf 240. Tief/Hoch 232/240. Geld/Brief 239.50/240. Umsatz 110, davon 80 November.

Erneutes Allzeithoch in allen gehandelten Monaten.

Kostenfreie Realtimekurse Weizen: http://www.rmx-forum.de/cgi-bin/index.pl?RG=1

Bild entfernt.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/9/2007

December Wheat finished down 10 at 691, 19 1/2 off the high and 3 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 5 1/2 at 673 1/2. This was 3 1/2 up from the low and 22 1/2 off the high.

The lower close after posting a contract high and an 11-year high may be seen as a potential sign of a near-term top and could attract technical selling pressure. Funds were noted buyers of near 1,500 contracts into the mid-session but long liquidation selling, thought to be profit-taking ahead of the USDA report, helped spark the weak close. Strong demand for wheat despite the 11-year high price, solid export sales news and continued concerns for tightening world supply helped spark higher trade and new contract highs on the opening. The French Farm Ministry cut their forecast for 2007 soft wheat production to 32.9 million tonnes, down 1.8 million tonnes from last month's forecast and below 33.3 million harvested last year. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 890,900 metric tonnes as compared to trade expectations between 600,000-1.0 million tonnes. Cumulative sales have already reached 45.8% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 30.5% on average over the last five years. Sales of 359,100 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. Japan bought 131,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 71,000 of the total coming from the US. Morocco's state grains agency approved licenses to import 130,000 tonnes of European Union wheat which may have helped French wheat futures to post new highs overnight. On top of the Chicago spot market 11-year highs this morning, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat also posted new contract and 11-year highs and closed moderately lower for December contracts.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 1 auf 690. Tief/Hoch 685.75/691. Umsatz rund 4.900.

November Weizen Hannover Geld/Brief 235/240, Vortag schloss 240. Ohne Umsatz.

Januar Weizen Hannover minus 5.30 auf 235. Hoch/Tief 235. Geld/Brief 234/240. Umsatz 5, alle Januar.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/10/2007

September wheat traded 1 cent lower overnight.

Profit taking ahead of the USDA Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports for release this morning was seen as the primary reason for the sharp break into the close yesterday. If there are no surprises for the reports, the sweeping key reversal from a contract and multi-year high yesterday might spark additional selling from technically-based traders, as this pattern is sometimes seen as a warning of a potential top. Stronger than expected demand for US wheat threatens to pull ending stocks to historically tight levels. Ideas that feed usage numbers will decline to help offset any revisions in exports was seen as yet another reason for longs to head for the exits ahead of the reports. Tightening world stocks and production woes in Europe continue to fuel bullish enthusiasm for wheat. Better than expected demand for wheat from Egypt, Iraq, Morocco and Brazil and ideas that Brazil will still need near 2.7 million tonnes of wheat imports from the northern hemisphere with Argentina about out of wheat has provided a solid foundation for the rally.

The lower close yesterday after posting both a contract high and an 11-year high may be seen as a potential sign of a near term top and could attract technical selling pressure. Funds were noted buyers of near 1,500 contracts into the mid-session, but long liquidation selling, thought to be profit-taking ahead of the USDA report, helped spark the weak close. Strong demand for wheat despite the 11-year high price, solid export sales news and continued concerns for tightening world supply helped spark higher trade and new contract highs on the opening. The French Farm Ministry cut their forecast for 2007 soft wheat production to 32.9 million tonnes, down 1.8 million tonnes from last month's forecast and below 33.3 million harvested last year. Weekly US export sales for wheat came in at 890,900 metric tonnes, which was within trade expectations. Cumulative sales have already reached 45.8% of the USDA forecast for the entire marketing year as compared to 30.5% on average over the last five years. Sales of 359,100 metric tonnes per week are needed to reach the USDA estimate. Japan bought 131,000 tonnes of wheat at their weekly tender with 71,000 of the total coming from the US. Morocco's state grains agency approved licenses to import 130,000 tonnes of European Union wheat, which may have helped French wheat futures to post new highs Wednesday night. On top of the Chicago spot market 11-year highs Thursday morning, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat also posted new contract and 11-year highs and closed moderately lower for December contracts.

Mostly favorable conditions are expected in the northern plains and Canadian prairies over the next few days, which is in sharp contrast to recent hot and dry weather. The soft wheat basis at the Gulf was steady to weaker as US exports found competition from Russia. For the USDA Crop Production report the average trade estimate for all wheat production is 2.13 billion bushels (2.086-2.165) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.812 billion. Winter wheat production is expected at 1.55 billion bushels (1.53-1.572) as compared with the July USDA estimate of 1.562 billion bushels and last year's production at 1.298 billion. Traders look for spring wheat production to increase 9 million bushels from the July forecast to 507 million bushels (range 472-535). Traders are looking for ending stocks near 415 million bushels (range 365-544) as compared with 418 million last month.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago minus 4.75 auf 686.25. Tief/Hoch 684/692. Umsatz rund 9.400.

November Weizen Hannover minus 2 auf 238. Tief/Hoch 235/238. Geld/Brief 233/237. Umsatz 13, davon 4 November.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/10/2007

December Wheat finished down 6 1/2 at 684 1/2, 13 1/2 off the high and 4 1/2 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 6 1/2 at 667. This was 5 1/2 up from the low and 13 1/2 off the high.

The market was called 2-3 higher on the opening but a sharp drop in the other grains, weakness in world financial markets and follow-through selling from yesterday's technical reversal pulled the market lower early in the session. The mid-day bounce was impressive but with plenty of uncertainty coming from world financial markets and traders nervous that funds will shift away from grains for a while helped keep the trade choppy to lower into the close. The USDA pegged US 2007/08 all wheat production at 2.114 billion bushels as compared with the average trade estimate at 2.13 billion and compared with the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion. Winter wheat production was pegged at 1.537 billion vs. expectations at 1.55 billion. Spring wheat was pegged at 500.07 million bushels as compared with expectations at 507 million bushels (range 472-535). Ending stocks are now pegged at 404 million from expectations at 415 million (range 365-544) and compared with 418 million last month. Soft red wheat ending stocks are now pegged at 78 million bushels from 92 million last month while hard red stocks were revised down just 1 million to 147 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks for 2007/08 were pegged at 114.78 million tonnes versus 116.55 in June and 124.9 million for 2006/07.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 7.50 auf 692. Tief/Hoch 686.25/695.25. Umsatz rund 3.000.

Weizen Hannover bisher nicht gehandelt. November Geld/Brief 233/239, Schluss am Freitag 237.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/13/2007

September wheat traded 6 1/2 cents higher overnight.

The recovery in world stock markets and continued tightness concerns out of Europe helped support the market overnight. Weekend news was mixed. Egypt tendered for optional origin wheat after the close and bought 115,000 tonnes of wheat, all from Russia. In the tender last week, freight charges from Russia were just $40/tonne as compared with $72/tonne for US wheat to Egypt. The market experienced follow-through technical selling on Friday from the key reversal on Thursday, which was seen as a negative technical development. In addition, talk that the market is overbought helped spark some technical selling. Traders were a bit surprised that the USDA did not lower EU production as much as expected, especially EU exports. Exports were reduced by 500,000 tonnes from last month to 11.5 million tonnes for the EU. However, many traders see exports down another several million tonnes from this level. Ukraine wheat exports fell to just 105,900 tonnes in July from 728,100 tonnes in June due to export restrictions. The key supportive number for the report was a drop in US ending stocks to just 404 million bushels. Since 1960, there have been only two years in which ending stocks were lower with 1995/96 at 376 million bushels and 1973/74 at 340 million bushels. World ending stocks are now projected at just 114.7 million tonnes, the lowest since 1981 (112.5) and the second lowest in history. World stocks/usage is at 18.5%, the lowest on record since 1960.

The market was called 2-3 higher on the opening Friday, but a sharp drop in the other grains, weakness in world financial markets and follow-through selling from the previous day's technical reversal pulled the market lower early in the session. A midday bounce was impressive, but with plenty of uncertainty coming from world financial markets and traders nervous that funds will shift away from grains for awhile helped keep the trade choppy to lower into the close. The USDA pegged US 2007/08 all wheat production at 2.114 billion bushels, which was below the average trade estimate at 2.13 billion and down from the July USDA estimate of 2.138 billion. Winter wheat production was pegged at 1.537 billion vs. expectations at 1.55 billion. Spring wheat was pegged at 500.07 million bushels as compared with expectations at 507 million bushels (range 472-535). Ending stocks are now pegged at 404 million from expectations at 415 million (range 365-544) and compared with 418 million last month. Soft red wheat ending stocks are now pegged at 78 million bushels from 92 million last month while hard red stocks were revised down just 1 million to 147 million bushels. World wheat ending stocks for 2007/08 were pegged at 114.78 million tonnes versus 116.55 in June and 124.9 million for 2006/07.

Favorable conditions continue in the northern plains and Canadian prairies. More rains will be needed in the northeastern growing areas of Australia as they move into their early spring. Basis levels for both hard and soft winter wheat were steady. The Commitment of Traders report with options showed the market in a bullish setup with non-commercial traders (funds) building a larger net long position and non-reportable traders (small specs) net short 30,601 contracts. This leaves futures vulnerable to more fund buying and small spec short-covering if resistance levels are violated. Trend following funds increased their net long position sharply by 5,698 contracts for the week to 7,156 contracts and the buying trend is a positive force. The market is still operating under the negative influence of the August 9th key reversal.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 6 auf 690.50. Tief/Hoch 686.25/695.25. Umsatz rund 4.100.

November Weizen Hannover unverändert 237, der einzige heute gehandelt Kontrakt. Geld/Brief 233/237.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Wheat Market Recap Report for 8/13/2007

December Wheat finished up 6 at 690 1/2, 3 1/2 off the high and 11 up from the low. September Wheat closed down 1/2 at 666 1/2. This was 6 1/2 up from the low and 9 1/2 off the high.

The moderately higher close may help relieve fears that the reversal last week will attract significant technical selling this week. Continued concerns with tightness in world wheat ending stocks and the outlook for a tightening supply for the US due to excellent export demand helped support the market early in the session. However, a lack of new buying interest on the higher opening and follow-through technical selling from last week's key reversal helped pressure the market into the mid-session. Strength in soybeans helped support the market late in the day and liquidation of old crop/new crop spreads supported strong gains for the July contracts. Weekly export inspections, released during the session came in at 24.4 million bushels as compared with trade expectations at 16-22 million. This helped support the market. Cumulative shipments have reached 17.3% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 17.4% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Egypt bought 115,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia over the weekend which might have been a bit disappointing to the bulls. South Korea millers seek 46,600 tonnes of US wheat. Ukraine exported just 105,900 tonnes of wheat in July due to export restrictions as compared with 728,100 tonnes in June.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus plus 2.25 auf 692.75. Tief/Hoch 687/694.50. Umsatz rund 4.400.

November Weizen Hannover plus 2 auf 239. Nur ein gehandelter Kontrakt. Geld/Brief 235/240.

Richard Ebert
Mitglied seit 11 Jahre 2 Monate

Pre-Opening Wheat Market Report for 8/14/2007

September wheat traded 15 1/2 cents higher overnight.

Continued concerns with the crop coming out of the ground and declining crop estimates out of Europe along with ideas that the US market is likely to stay strong at least until the winter wheat crop is planted helped support solid gains overnight. Iraq is expected to buy up to 200,000 tonnes of wheat from Canada or the US this week. French officials pegged their soft wheat crop at 32.5 million tonnes from near 34 million last month. Consultants in Ukraine pegged the grain crop this year at just 28.03 million tonnes, down from last month's estimate of 29.7 million tonnes and from nearly 33 million projected in the spring, as drought has taken its toll. South Korea bought 47,000 tonnes of wheat from the US overnight. Dry and cool weather has the Argentina wheat crop off to a poor start in some areas. News that Egypt has bought wheat from Russia in the last three tenders helped to ease the buying support and pressure futures somewhat yesterday. After the close, Egypt tendered for 55,000-60,000 tonnes of wheat from various locations and traders suspect some news ahead of the opening. The key supportive number from Friday's USDA report was a drop in US ending stocks to just 404 million bushels. Since 1960, there have been only two years in which ending stocks were lower, with 1995/96 at 376 million bushels and 1973/74 at 340 million bushels. World ending stocks are now projected at just 114.7 million tonnes, the lowest since 1981 (112.5) and the second lowest in history. World stocks/usage is at 18.5%, the lowest on record since 1960.

The moderately higher close yesterday may help relieve fears that the reversal last week will attract significant technical selling this week. Continued concerns with tightness in world wheat ending stocks and the outlook for a tightening supply for the US due to excellent export demand helped support the market early in the session yesterday. However, a lack of new buying interest on the higher opening and follow-through technical selling from last week's key reversal helped pressure the market into the mid-session. Strength in soybeans helped support the market late in the day and liquidation of old crop/new crop spreads supported strong gains for the July contracts. Weekly export inspections, released during the session, came in at 24.4 million bushels, which was above trade expectations. This helped support the market. Cumulative shipments have reached 17.3% of the USDA forecast for the season as compared with 17.4% as the 5-year average for this time of the year. Egypt bought 115,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia over the weekend, which might have been a bit disappointing to the bulls. South Korea millers were seeking 46,600 tonnes of US wheat. Ukraine exported just 105,900 tonnes of wheat in July due to export restrictions as compared with 728,100 tonnes in June.

The market may find support today from the latest forecast from Argentina, which has lowered the chances for much-needed rains there this weekend. Basis levels for both hard and soft winter wheat were steady in the face of another Egyptian tender. Egypt has purchased from Russia in its last three tenders, as high shipping costs have made US wheat uncompetitive. However, traders are starting to think Russian supplies are dwindling, and with global supplies as tight as they are, it would leave the US one of the last suppliers with available stocks. The weekly spring wheat conditions report, released after the close, showed 66% was rated good/excellent, down from 69% last week but still ahead of the 10 year average for this time of year at 55%. Spring wheat harvest is 51% complete compared to 66% last year and the 10 year average for this time of year at 34%. The demand still looks stronger than normal, especially considering the high price.

(Quelle: http://www.cbot.com)

Dezember Weizen Chicago plus 11.50 auf 702. Tief/Hoch 687/702.75. Umsatz rund 8.200.

November Weizen Hannover plus 3 auf 240. Tief/Hoch 239/240. Geld/Brief 239/241. Umsatz 52, davon 11 November.

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