Weizen: Was wird für die neue Ernte erlöst / bezahlt ?

Habe letzte Woche WW für 195 €/to ab Hof 2012 verkauft. 12% Protein, 220 FZ.

Brotweizen frei Lager Ernte 2011 = 21.- Eur netto KW 6.

Für bessere Qualitäten + 1.- Eur

Noggers Blog lese ich immer sehr gerne.
Daraus:

http://nogger-noggersblog.blogspot.com/2011/02/balance-of-probability.html

Vielleicht interessant ?

"...Going back to the balance of probability, it suggests to me that it is likely that Russia will replenish it's depleted grain reserves in 2011 with an average harvest. That also suggests that it is unlikely that they will still have an export embargo in place come the harvest of 2012. It also suggests that Ukraine will re-emerge as an aggressive exporter again as early as harvest 2011, and also be in there pitching come harvest 2012.

To summarise: It is more likely than not that the world will produce more wheat in 2012 than in 2011. By harvest 2012 it is more likely than not that Russia and Ukraine will be active exporters again. The UK will have a new 1 MMT mouth to feed, but is still likely to have an exportable surplus. ..."

Weizenpreis "neue Ernte" am Terminmarkt in Paris:

Sind die Preise die für Terminverkäufe der neuen Ernte erzielt werden, nicht etwas niedrig ?

Oder andersrum: Lohnt es sich, den Weizen am Terminmarkt für über 240 Euro je Tonne zu verkaufen ?

Schöne Grüsse, Richard Ebert