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CORN PERSPECTIVE: Look for CZ to maintain $2.30-2.45 trading range until size of ’03 US corn crop can be more accurately determined.
Corn Analysis: The wide range in market expectations on ’03 US corn production (9.5-9.9 bil bu) will force a range bound trade until either the October crop report or reports on how new crop yields are fairing relative to expectations provides more tangible evidence on the ’03 US corn supply. Interesting to note that corn futures declined into harvest in each of the last two years (when Sept to Final corn yields advanced) while corn prices advanced through Sept/Oct in 2000 (when the Sept to Final US corn yield declined nearly 5 BPA). From a demand standpoint, the market knows that final US corn demand has fallen short of trade expectations in each of the last 3 years although the draw down in global grain stocks and the recovery in the global economy collectively suggest that US corn demand may exceed USDA’s Sept forecast as it did in ’96, ’98 & ’99. Seasonally, it is most common for the corn market to advance ahead of the Sept crop report and then drop precipitously for the balance of the month. The strong support provided to the corn market by warm/dry Aug conditions will fade with cooler/shorter days, reports of early harvest in C. IL and the southern states and acceleration in farmer selling in areas blessed with late August rains. Nonetheless, the largest August decline in US corn condition ratings in our 14-year data base, reports of an increase in corn abandonment over USDA’s August forecast of 0.5-0.75 mil acres and end users anxious to extend coverage on breaks should provide strong support to CZ on breaks below $2.35. We think red CZ represents good long-term ownership in $2.40 area. Bottom line—the corn market is range bound until new crop supply can be pegged more accurately. We think the market will assume better than expected demand and that the funds will be willing buyers of farmer hedge selling this fall.
SOYBEAN RECOMMENDATIONS: New Rec: SF/SX @ market, obj. 5, stop 0. New Rec: Sell SX @ market, obj 5.52, stop 5.91. SM/BO reverse Dec oil share @ 35.4%, obj. 35.4%, stop 36.3%. Long Dec 180.00 put @ 650, obj. NA, stop NA. Long SX @ 6.00 call/short SX 6.40 call @ 10 ½, obj. 13 ½, stop NA.
SOYBEAN PERSPECTIVE: Wide range of estimates on ’03 US soybean production suggests SX range bound in $5.65-5.90 area until harvest.
Soybean Analysis: Look for SX to range trade until the size of the ’03 US soybean crop can be more accurately ascertained. We believe that near term highs are in for the moment. Near term, the soybean market is faced with an unusually wide range (2.7-2.8 bil bu) in ’03 soybean production possibilities predicated on lack of any analog year that mixed extreme August dryness with generous late month rains over two thirds of the Midwest. The soybean market, like corn, typically rallies into the Sept Crop report before eroding sharply into month end. Unlike corn, however, there is not a strong relationship between harvest price action in soybeans and Sept to Final changes in the soybean crop. SX ’00 and SX ’99 eroded into Oct despite 1.4 BPA-1.5 BPA Sept to Final declines in the US soybean yield (although soybean carry outs in the fall of ’01 & ’02 were 248 & 208 mil bu respectively vs. USDA’s already low 220 mil bu carryout posted on the August crop report. SX ’02 posted a near 70-cent break from mid Sept to mid Oct last year on the heels of a 0.8 BPA increase in the Sept to Final US soybean yield, record S. American stocks and O/N/D PRC soybean imports that averaged only 1 mmt/month. Regarding China, there is every indication that they intend to slow the pace of soybean imports this fall although ongoing strong growth in both their overall economy and soybean crushing capacity suggests that they will set another record high is soybean imports during‘03/04. An additional near term negative is presence of 4 mmt more soybeans in S. America than last year as of Sept 1. Thus, even though respected analysts are touting ’03 US soybean production as low as 2.7 bil bu (implying 9/04 US soybean stocks below 50 mil bu), the fact is that it’s all speculation until the combines start rolling. Until then, we think that the near term highs are in, that SX will erode vs. SF, that Oct meal will gain on Dec meal and that oil share is poised for another leg lower into mid Oct. Know that the stage is set for a large surprise on ’03 US soybean crop size on the Oct crop report given highly unusual nature of the ’03 US growing season although interesting to note that USDA Oct soybean production was below the average trade guess in 5 of last 8 years. The soybean market’s greatest utility over next 30 days will be discovering a price that shakes enough old and new crop beans lose to bridge an extremely tight old crop situation to plentiful new crop supplies.
Hallo !
Mich würde es auch interessieren, ob jemand einen Tipp hat wie es weitergehen könnte. Am 11.9. gibts den Erntebericht in den USA.
Gruss Peter
Wenn man einen guten Broker hat, dann hat man auch Zugriff auf das Research. Hier ein Beispiel für Ihre Frage:
MfG
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Weekly Grain/Oilseed Report by: Rich Feltes 9 /4/03
CORN RECOMMENDATIONS: Long CZ 04 a@ 2.44, Obj 2.60, stop 2.32. CZ/WZ @ -134 ½ ob, obj. –111, stop –151 ½.
CORN PERSPECTIVE: Look for CZ to maintain $2.30-2.45 trading range until size of ’03 US corn crop can be more accurately determined.
Corn Analysis: The wide range in market expectations on ’03 US corn production (9.5-9.9 bil bu) will force a range bound trade until either the October crop report or reports on how new crop yields are fairing relative to expectations provides more tangible evidence on the ’03 US corn supply. Interesting to note that corn futures declined into harvest in each of the last two years (when Sept to Final corn yields advanced) while corn prices advanced through Sept/Oct in 2000 (when the Sept to Final US corn yield declined nearly 5 BPA). From a demand standpoint, the market knows that final US corn demand has fallen short of trade expectations in each of the last 3 years although the draw down in global grain stocks and the recovery in the global economy collectively suggest that US corn demand may exceed USDA’s Sept forecast as it did in ’96, ’98 & ’99. Seasonally, it is most common for the corn market to advance ahead of the Sept crop report and then drop precipitously for the balance of the month. The strong support provided to the corn market by warm/dry Aug conditions will fade with cooler/shorter days, reports of early harvest in C. IL and the southern states and acceleration in farmer selling in areas blessed with late August rains. Nonetheless, the largest August decline in US corn condition ratings in our 14-year data base, reports of an increase in corn abandonment over USDA’s August forecast of 0.5-0.75 mil acres and end users anxious to extend coverage on breaks should provide strong support to CZ on breaks below $2.35. We think red CZ represents good long-term ownership in $2.40 area. Bottom line—the corn market is range bound until new crop supply can be pegged more accurately. We think the market will assume better than expected demand and that the funds will be willing buyers of farmer hedge selling this fall.
SOYBEAN RECOMMENDATIONS: New Rec: SF/SX @ market, obj. 5, stop 0. New Rec: Sell SX @ market, obj 5.52, stop 5.91. SM/BO reverse Dec oil share @ 35.4%, obj. 35.4%, stop 36.3%. Long Dec 180.00 put @ 650, obj. NA, stop NA. Long SX @ 6.00 call/short SX 6.40 call @ 10 ½, obj. 13 ½, stop NA.
SOYBEAN PERSPECTIVE: Wide range of estimates on ’03 US soybean production suggests SX range bound in $5.65-5.90 area until harvest.
Soybean Analysis: Look for SX to range trade until the size of the ’03 US soybean crop can be more accurately ascertained. We believe that near term highs are in for the moment. Near term, the soybean market is faced with an unusually wide range (2.7-2.8 bil bu) in ’03 soybean production possibilities predicated on lack of any analog year that mixed extreme August dryness with generous late month rains over two thirds of the Midwest. The soybean market, like corn, typically rallies into the Sept Crop report before eroding sharply into month end. Unlike corn, however, there is not a strong relationship between harvest price action in soybeans and Sept to Final changes in the soybean crop. SX ’00 and SX ’99 eroded into Oct despite 1.4 BPA-1.5 BPA Sept to Final declines in the US soybean yield (although soybean carry outs in the fall of ’01 & ’02 were 248 & 208 mil bu respectively vs. USDA’s already low 220 mil bu carryout posted on the August crop report. SX ’02 posted a near 70-cent break from mid Sept to mid Oct last year on the heels of a 0.8 BPA increase in the Sept to Final US soybean yield, record S. American stocks and O/N/D PRC soybean imports that averaged only 1 mmt/month. Regarding China, there is every indication that they intend to slow the pace of soybean imports this fall although ongoing strong growth in both their overall economy and soybean crushing capacity suggests that they will set another record high is soybean imports during‘03/04. An additional near term negative is presence of 4 mmt more soybeans in S. America than last year as of Sept 1. Thus, even though respected analysts are touting ’03 US soybean production as low as 2.7 bil bu (implying 9/04 US soybean stocks below 50 mil bu), the fact is that it’s all speculation until the combines start rolling. Until then, we think that the near term highs are in, that SX will erode vs. SF, that Oct meal will gain on Dec meal and that oil share is poised for another leg lower into mid Oct. Know that the stage is set for a large surprise on ’03 US soybean crop size on the Oct crop report given highly unusual nature of the ’03 US growing season although interesting to note that USDA Oct soybean production was below the average trade guess in 5 of last 8 years. The soybean market’s greatest utility over next 30 days will be discovering a price that shakes enough old and new crop beans lose to bridge an extremely tight old crop situation to plentiful new crop supplies.