Zukunft der Ölsaaten - Interessant für WTB Trader in 20 Jahren ;-)

Interessante Analyse über die Zukunft der Ölsaaten als Ersatz für Erdöl, betrieben durch die EU, Autor: Strauss, Chefredakteur Osterdowjones

ODJ STRAUSS ON COMMODITIES: Europe Moving Toward Crop-Based Fuels

By Michael J. Strauss, Senior Editor-At-Large

London, Nov. 19 (OsterDowJones) - European rapeseed, sunflowers, corn,
sugar beets and other commodity crops are likely to see a surge in their use
as vehicle fuels in the next few years, creating hefty new demand as this use
takes its place beside food and animal feed as a major reason for buying crops.

Behind the drive to use crop-based "biofuels" is the European Union's
concern about energy security. Its desire to reduce the E.U.'s rapidly growing
reliance on foreign oil and gas has led it to set goals of having 2% of E.U.
vehicle fuel come from renewable resources by 2005, and almost 6% by 2010.

The percentages may look small, but the number of vehicles involved is
huge - the initial 2% goal represents about 4 million cars, trucks and buses
out of the roughly 200 million that the E.U. statistics office says are
circulating in the E.U.

If the momentum develops to put systems in place that can let this many
European vehicles run on crop-based fuel in the next three years, it wouldn't
be out of the question for the second target to be reached a few years later.

The E.U. has a longer-term goal as well - 20% by 2020 - and by that time a
dozen or so new member countries in central and eastern Europe are bound to be
fully integrated into the E.U.'s systems, with their vehicles giving a further
big push to the overall total.

What this means for crops is equally dramatic. Guesses are all over the
place at this point, but among the lowest is one from a French farmers' group
that says the E.U. will need at least 400,000 more metric tons of rapeseed a
year to meet the fuel demand later this decade. Others think more than 1
million tons a year of additional crops would be needed by then.

That's bound to have an impact on prices, not just of European commodity
crops but of those abroad as well, since any diversion of crops for use in
E.U. fuels would mean less is available to sell for food and feed on the world
market.

What are the chances of this really happening? Not bad, it seems. For a
year now, the E.U. has been formally encouraging member countries to create
tax breaks and other financial incentives for getting vehicles running on crop-
based fuels, and some have already done so.

What may be more telling is that some of the biggest companies in the
commodity industry see plenty of opportunity in the sector, and are pressing
E.U. governments that haven't acted yet.

Cargill, for example, told the British government a year ago that "biofuel
production...could commence tomorrow" if tax incentives were
sufficient. "Cargill are ready to start production, but need the inducement of
a further duty cut before production can commence," it said.

So far the U.K. has approved a small tax break that the companies consider
insufficient, but their desire to act is still strong and is still being
voiced. Just a few weeks ago, a British agriculture publication, Farmers
Weekly, said Cargill and British Sugar "have pledged to pour cash into
building a U.K. biofuels industry" if the government offers the right
incentives.
The use of crop-based fuels is well established in Brazil and has been
spreading in North America and other places, but the E.U. targets are
particularly ambitious. They could put a number of industrialized, vehicle-
dense European countries at the head of the biofuels industry, give it a
critical mass to operate on a worldwide basis and generate what could be major
new trading and price developments for the crops involved.

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Michael J. Strauss, OsterDowJones, +4420 79795767
mstrauss@osterdowjones.com
Copyright 2002 OsterDowJones Commodity News (ODJ). All rights reserved.