Caved in rising rates of rape in the short term - year-end effect or more?
The rape rates have in a controversial environment of oil seeds and oil market a strong self-dynamic developed. Despite falling crude oil prices to more one-third have the quotes on the Paris stock exchange, as well as the rates on the Mittelland Canal can not only compete, but have risen even more. Before 2 weeks in a tailspin under palm oil prices as the market leader in the business of herbal oils to apply only little RAPS courses.
The stabilizing factors for the rapeseed prices once from the soy complex with relatively fixed soybean oil prices as a result of the temporary supply shortages in the United States. Short-term support from the side of palm oil because of the floods in Malaysia came from mid December 2014. Other factors are in the canola market itself. The EU import demand for canola can be obtained only from small sources of GMOs approved origins at relatively high cost. The significant decline of purchasing power of the euro helps (Anf Jan.-15: $1.20 / €) at. The future scarce supply situation in the marketing year 2015/16 provides further supporting background.
The coming year is expected largely agree by a significant decline in the world harvest of 72 to 67 million tons . A decisive contribution provides the EU with a decrease in the acreage between 4.5 to 5%, especially in Germany and England. Prohibition of use of an insecticide has caused considerable damage to several total failures. Also not expected a repeat of above-average hectare yield as a result of an unusually favorable growing season in the year 2014. And still are some of the risks in the form of Dewinterizing damage, weather conditions during the revenue phase, as well as the harvesting conditions before.
The short-term recent price slump could be dismissed with the usual year-end effect, if there were not some abnormalities . First has expected the price of crude oil cannot stabilize can, but shows more weakness tendencies on a level not known since 2009, between 50 and $60 per barrel. This requirement was also the Palm course unable to escape and has declined also in the short term. In the soy complex tilts the mood down. The supply shortages in the United States abate significantly. The South American Harvest promises to record income. The first threshing results in Mato Grosso (Brazil) are been very promising. It is expected that the demand of importing countries - focused China - above all in the new year increasingly on Brazil and Argentina.
Low crude oil prices have fallen below a threshold of pain, which can no longer be ignored by rape prices and the competitors in the market for vegetable oils. Stay as long as energy prices does not again dramatically shifts upwards, rapeseed prices despite lower crop expectations at medium level.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite the strong decline of crude oil price and good supply situation in the global oilseed sector canola prices have proved very resistant to the competitive environment. Supportive influences come from the EU import requirements, the weakened purchasing power of the euro, as well as the expectation of a low world rapeseed crop in 2015/16. A palm oil price is stabilising because of crop failures because of the floods in Malaysia contributes also to short-term canola price stabilisation. The question remains, how much to affect the impact of the ongoing record soy crop. And: how long do the the temporary support factors?
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