Ölsaaten Cockpit, 03.08.2018

Oilseeds: different supply situations and incalculable trade policy The ongoing trade disputes between China and the US are increasingly intervening in the oilseeds market. Political announcements with contradictory prospects have lately left soybean prices on a rolling course . After a short period of hope for improving trade relations, recent statements about higher US tariffs on China shipments have again led to a sharp setback in prices. Support comes from the firmer dollar rate. China is clearly determined to stifle US soy shipments by any means.In addition to the known purchases in the Ukraine are now also soybean shipments from Argentina on the list. Usually, China buys whole beans, which are processed in their own country. The failure of Argentina in the early summer of this year allows only limited exports. Ironically, Argentina imports US soybeans to fill its own oil mill. Even if they are not the same lots, US soy comes via the detour of Argentina to China . The trade conflict also weighs on palm oil . Especially in a period of increasing seasonal production in Indonesia and Malaysia until Oct. / Nov.-18, exports are affected. Palm oil prices dropped from over $ 625 to $ 585 / t within a week .Palm and soybean oils are the main competitors for rapeseed oil. Despite the price declines of the two market leaders, rapeseed prices in Paris have moved towards 380 € / t . The main driving factor is the repeatedly lower rated rapeseed crops in the EU . Germany is expected to harvest only 3.3 million tonnes compared to a 5-year average of 5.2 million tonnes. France , too, remains below the usual 5 million t mark . It is still uncertain whether the 20 millionth border will be reached in the EU. Consumption is approx. 25 million t. The canola course in Canada has moved up little under the pressure of neighboring US soybean prices.Impulses come from reports of insufficient precipitation in individual growing regions and from increasing demand from China. Canadian supplies to the EU are severely limited by the strict GMO import regulations. The further development in the oilseeds market can only be assessed to a limited extent. Although the supply situation in the soybean market will continue to be above average , price movements will be unpredictable as a result of trade conflicts. Rising palm oil production in the coming months will continue to put pressure on prices . Despite the extremely scarce supply of EU rapeseed , the prices will take every chance of an increase, but remain integrated into the competition to cheap soy and palm oil courses.