USDA report on the supply situation in the world soybean market
The latest market report of the US Department of agriculture (USDA) from 10 Feb 2015 again confirmed the above-average supply situation in the world soybean market.
The global soya crop was again increased to about 315 million tonnes. Is the U.S. fall crop with their unmodified record of 108 million tonnes (previous year 91.5 million tons) included.
The previous estimates to 94.5 million tons were for the current Brazilian crop (previous year 86.7 million) slightly shortened. Drought in wine-growing area of part of have shortened the off ripening phase resulting in lower yields.
For Argentina , which was up to 56 Mio.t crop estimate after (year 54 million tonnes) estimated. Favourable climate conditions and an extended area have contributed significantly to the results.
The estimates have been retained in the smaller countries such as Uruguay and Paraquay.
On the uses side are approximately 290 million tonnes. China consumes about 86 million tonnes. In the United States, approximately 52 million tonnes are processed and in Argentina and Brazil each approximately 40 million tonnes. The EU needs 14.5 million tonnes of soybeans and nearly 30 million tons of soybean meal.
The balance of initial inventory, harvesting and consumption provides an closing stock in the magnitude of nearly 90 million t at world level. This is the largest surplus stock, ever existed. The closing stock were between 57 and 66 million tonnes in the previous 2 years.
The ratio of closing stock consumption significantly above the multi-annual average with 31% and indicated a plentiful supply situation.
Soy bean trade is distinct from China with a two thirds share of imports. dominated. The increase should be but only average 4 million tonnes, after the previous year + 10 million tonnes in addition introduced.
In the soy meal market is 29 million tons with an export share of almost 45% of the Argentina, followed by Brazil and the United States. In the first place, the EU with an import volume of just under 20 million tonnes or 30% are available on the import side.
On the stock markets soy prices in a first response to the published figures gave slightly.
The forward prices for the coming months show a clear downward trend.
However, the instructions on possible errors in the marketing events such as truck / dock strikes should not be missing. Also a reluctance by sales is conceivable is likely but in the face of falling prices less serious to be
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The rising range of soy beans from several bumper harvests expected for months is accessible also for the consumer. Great South American Ernteen come in leaps and bounds. The risk of production evolves becomes less important. It also supplied risk premiums fall.
Prices have eased but for the time being only moderately. However, the later dates of courses on the exchanges provide a clearly falling direction. For buyers with the euro currency, the disadvantage of weak purchasing power. Thus the dollar-denominated price decline is not fully propagated. Notes on possible supply problems by truck / dock strikes should not be missing at this point.
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