The US Department of Agriculture has made some significant corrections in its recent soybean supply publication. The changes in the estimation of US production and inventories are particularly clear - and long-awaited. In the USA, only 96.6 million t of soybeans are expected to be produced in 2019/20 due to significant sowing delays in spring and unfavorable weather conditions, which is 2.2 million t below the previous month's estimate. Thus, the USDA lowered its forecast for the fourth month in a row, in June it still expected a production of 112.9 million t. This is also the smallest amount since 2013/14. This is due to declining yields, it is still 31.5 dt / ha to be achieved, in the previous month, the USDA was still from 32.2 dt / ha. The current figures are below the expectations of the market participants. In the other important soy countries, such as Brazil, Argentina, China and India, production continues to be the same as the previous month. Thus, a total of 338.97 million tonnes worldwide should come together, the US minus would be 2.4 million tonnes less than expected in September.The global consumption forecast was revised downwards only slightly by 1.1 to 352.3 million t, so that global demand could not be covered by production. This is at the expense of stocks. In addition, the USDA significantly reduced the US inventory estimate by 4.9 to 12.5 million t. Although a slight increase in Brazil and Argentina, but that is not enough to compensate for the loss of the United States. For this reason, only 95.2 million t of soybeans are expected to be stored worldwide in 2019/20, just under 4 million t less than in 2018/19. After the record stock levels in the previous year, this is still a comfortable amount. The export estimates left the USDA unchanged at 149 million tons, with top sellers still expected to be Brazil at 76.5 million tons. In second and third place is the US, which is expected to export 48.3 million despite the substantial harvest losses and Argentina with 8 million tons.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Lower US yields are likely to significantly limit country production. But this also reduces the global supply and inventories. However, this is not a cause for concern for the time being.
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