About 30% of the soybeans coming soon on stock - prices To give to significantly
The most recent estimate of the USDA to the oilseed market reinforced the previous expectations of a record result. All oilseeds total is estimated at 540 million tonnes. Most of them claimed the soy crop with 311 million tonnes (previous year 283 million tonnes). Other oilseeds such as canola, sunflower, cottonseed, peanuts, etc. play only a minor role.
The high soy result one concluded by 3 major growing regions in the United States expected a bumper crop in the magnitude of 106.5 million tonnes (previous year 89.5 million tonnes). In South America, Brazil soon to 94 million tonnes (previous year 86.7 million tonnes) and Argentina 55 million tonnes (previous year 54 million tonnes) harvest.
The producing countries are on the consumption side first, which handle about half of production in its own country and use. One third is exported. It plays China a dominant role to the import of two-thirds of the volume of world trade. In the year 2014/15 rd. 74 million tonnes shipped soybeans from North and South America to China. The Chinese cultivation is only China has chosen 12 million t. instead of maize.
Chinese imports will grow only half as much as in the previous year. Less livestock for pigs and poultry reduces the demand on the side of the shot. However, the vegetable oil is the human overhead is urgently needed soybean meal was until recently into scarce and expensive. The issue was the lack of care in the United States, which the old harvest hardly on the result of the new harvest Spitfire. The current soy harvest brings relaxation.
The stock quotes suddenly gave. Even the high prices of September could not be maintained. The prices for Oct to Dec are geared towards the $300 per ton mark. That the U.S. crop In fact be introduced in full amount of now estimated yield clinch is to be expected with a further yielding of rates.
The sowing conditions in South America should be kept in perspective. High acreage in the OCT to beg. Nov. promise again high crops in the spring months. The current soy corn-price ratio favors the cultivation of soy. A moderate estimate El Nino weather could make for favorable growing conditions in South America. Repeated high South American crops provide a sufficiently high range with a high potential of the reserve.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The high yields expected for months in the soy complex are surpassed by the most recent USDA estimate. The US harvest is running slow. A coverage in the United States is progressing. The early frost danger is averted for the time being, but not abolished. A massive construction of high inventories announces itself.
In South America, the sign for a high harvest in the spring months are promising. The soy / corn price ratio favored clearly the bean. A moderate El Nino weather speaks also for profitable growth conditions. The prospects are positive...
Soybean prices in the areas To give up accordingly clearly. Also for Europe, declining prices are indicated, be but partially thwarted by the weak euro exchange rate.
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