Rape rates lower again.
With the onset of the canola crop in the EU rapeseed prices gave again significantly. Producer prices to scratch at the €300 per t brand.
EU rapeseed harvest was revised upwards in recent times again to 22.7 million tonnes, but the EU is not the decisive factor influencing the price formation in the oilseed sector canola market with 13%. Significantly, the price developments of the market leaders are soy and palm oil with more than 60% of the total market for vegetable oils.
After a temporary recovery phase, palm oil prices again plummeting beta and have reached historic lows. Average overhang stocks and exports, as well as the prospect of production problems in the coming months by EL Nino have stopped but a further decline in for the time being.
US soya prices have fallen significantly since end of June 2014. In the last week of the decline has been strengthened under the impression of a high harvest expectations again. Although some growth and harvest risks ahead in August, but the greatly increased area under cultivation, the currently good seed stand and the weather forecast for the next 14 days, point in the direction of a record U.S. crop significantly above 100 million tonnes (previous year t 89.5 million).
On the demand side, the Chinese import purchases find attention again, but the amounts are within moderate limits. For the whole year the Chinese are to have more soy "only" + 4 million tonnes. Last year, there were 9 million tonnes.
Another price reduction potential is not to exclude, especially as grain prices have already set some low-cost orientation.
The rear dates show stabilisation tendencies, so that a real price crash is not expected. To what extent price recoveries in the further course of the year will cover storage costs, still remains open.
Answers to the question of a profitable storage provide the growing conditions and results first during Oct and Nov 2014, and from mid-Jan-2015 the yield and crop prospects for soybeans in the South American countries. The current prospects forecast high harvests, where El Nino should provide sufficient rainfall. The problem is rather to high rainfall. But even a not-so-high South American Harvest is can be partially offset by the inventories built up.
The pricing of 2014/15 is 1. Line intended to offer. The demand - especially from China - moving within manageable limits.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed sector is due to high harvest and favorable supply expectations under significant pressure on prices. In the face of the still largely outstanding crops - especially in the soybean sector - price reduction potential in the oilseed business is compared to the already lowered grain price level. The cultivation, yields and harvests of soybeans in South America, starting from autumn 2014 and ending in spring 2015 deliver more information. In contrast to the previous year, the year is 2014/15 in 1. Line determined by the supply side here and less of the demand and import, respectively. A paid storage business is subject to considerable risks.
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