Oilseed market: soy sector gaining market influence
In the field of tension between the palm oil prices driven by an El Niño drought upwards and the soy prices pressurized by high and rising level of supply seems the soy complex important to win. After a period of interim high mid-month Oct. 15 soy prices yielding recently.
The declining big U.S. soybean crop leads to a certain price pressure that was still little. Rising dollar prices however complicate the export, so exports only with decreasing price claims can be sustained.
In the competition due to the exchange rate cheap Brazilian offer, US Soybean prices are under pressure.
EU soy imports must be paid with a weak euro exchange rate. Rising European soybean prices are the consequence, i.e. the dollar-denominated price decline will be more than offset by the weak purchasing power of the euro.
Palm oil prices have stabilized for the first time under the pressure of competition from the soybean sector at a higher level. The future forward rates show but still a moderate upward trend.
The increase in prices for vegetable oils is rape prices benefit has come. In Paris, the magical order of magnitude is achieved from €380 per t. As the amplification factor is the weak euro exchange rate, which is considerably more expensive the necessary EU rapeseed imports. Accordingly, domestic prices to go up.
Should themselves in anticipation of another high soybean harvests in South America more improve of the supply situation is to be expected with a rising price oppressive influence from the soy sector.
However, it should be the risks of an El Niño year not underestimated. Also the usual logistical problems with strikes are etc. in South America in the future price development considerations to include. In the case of Argentina, political decisions on export taxes as a result of the presidential election can be recognized on the 25 Oct. 15.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Palm oil and soya seems the opposing rate developments between the two market leaders to develop for the benefit of the soy complex with a focus on soybean meal. In terms of dollar-quoted yielding soybean prices. For EU imports the goods as a result of the relatively weaker euro rate risen first.
High harvest expectations in North and South America rather pull the listing level. Big game rooms are not to be expected in view of the still outstanding risks.
The braked growth of the palm oil prices has drawn first while canola prices upwards, but at the same time also the potential upper limit will be reached.
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