Ölsaaten Cockpit, 26.07.2019

Apart from punctual interruptions, rapeseed rates on the Paris Stock Exchange have been in positive territory since early July. Most recently, they climbed to EUR 374.75 / t, surpassing the weekly line by EUR 3.75 / t and also reaching their highest level since the end of January 2019. Support brings the prospect of a small EU rapeseed harvest: The forecasting service MARS has cut its estimate for rapeseed yields in its July report. In June, he still had an average yield of 31.4 dt / ha and has now been corrected to 31 dt / ha. Especially in France, Germany, Great Britain and Spain, but also in parts of Eastern and Southeastern Europe as well as the Baltic, heat and drought have added to the stocks. Yield expectations are higher than the exceptionally weak previous year, but the long-term average is missed, and even significant, depending on the Member State. France's largest rapeseed producer, according to MARS, will yield 7% less than the long-term average.In Germany, expectations are 4.5% below five-year average, Great Britain is likely to miss its cut by 5.6%. Particularly severe are heat and water shortages and their impact on the oilseed rape field in Spain, where yield expectations are almost 9% below the long-term average. Reductions in land use and reduced yields are likely to result in a smaller EU rapeseed crop and a correspondingly larger supply gap, thus restoring hopes for supplies from third countries, particularly from Ukraine. There is no doubt that a much larger crop than in the previous year will come together in Ukraine as a result of land extensions, although there were also recent reports of declines in yields as a result of the heat wave. According to the Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture, revenues have so far been more than 5% down on the previous year. Against this background, the consulting firm APK-Inform expects a harvest of 3.6 million tonnes, which would still outperform the previous year and achieve a record result.