USDA estimates a global oilseed crop by 2015/16, slightly higher
In the most recent Feb.-output estimates the U.S. Department of agriculture (USDA) the global oilseed crop slightly higher to 527 million tonnes. The soybean crop contained therein will be increased a little with 320 million tonnes. In the parts market, rape's retains the scarce harvest volume of 67.5 million t, or 6.5% below last year's level. The other oilseeds are moving in the perennial ordinary.
The U.S. soybean crop was in the autumn 2015 is classified to nearly 107 million tonnes higher than last year's result. Dollar rate due to weak export sales lead to a 5-fold higher inventory build-up on 3rd. 12 million tonnes of compared to the previous two years.
The ongoing Brazilian soy harvest is on approximately 100 million t estimated, even if some risks of harvesting. 96 million tonnes were harvested in the previous year. For Argentina, the 58.5 million tonnes forecast has been raised. A record of 8.8 million tonnes is estimated for Paraquay.
Exports from the South American countries will total 8 millionplace to t. The greatest increase will come from Brazil. Reduced Argentine export taxes cause although not the great range boost, but significantly higher than otherwise estimated.
On the import side, the USDA at a Chinese import demand of 80.5 million tonnes of soybeans with only 3 million tonnes is more than in the previous year. Higher imports of soybeans and Narayanan due to missing rape meal amounts are expected also for Europe.
The palm oil crops in the Indonesia and Malaysia have been downgraded to 60 million tonnes. The drying phase of the El Niño weather leaves considerable reduced yields, which extend far into the year 2016. The production of palm oil in Malaysia fell by Dec to Jan by almost 20%. The rebuilt inventories have fallen by 12%.
Have the palm oil prices rise furtherdespite lower and again falling crude oil prices. It is expected that the normally cheapest vegetable oil soybean oil prices can rise. For the summer, rates are around $600 / t palm oil called.
Rape rates in the EU are controlled by the fluctuating price of crude oil, used by a rising euro exchange rate under pressure, and palm oil and soybean oil in the tongs taken from the competition.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite sectoral supply shortages, global oilseed supply remains above average size. First, the courses keep the good supply situation combined with low crude oil prices under pressure. Fluctuating exchange rates play a role in the ex - / Importgeschaft depending on the inputs or need for sale. The development gaining importance palm oil in the next few weeks and months for the 2 market leader. The function as a preissenkende force could be lost.
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