Oilseed prices on the way down
The prices for soy, canola and palm oil sind on the way down. Who first finds the reason for a sustainable improvement of oilseed crops or a sales weakness, will find it being limited. The decisive cause is the sharply declining crude oil price. In recent weeks, the barrel quotes are constantly towards $50 please depending on the quality. The reason is a growing worldwide oversupply of this raw material.
A second component in this context are emerging in a possible economic crisis in China. The repeated burglaries on the local stock exchanges and the rescue attempts of the State signal economic weakness trends which could have consequences for the purchase of raw materials to. Crude oil would be directly affected and in China's vegetable oil import needs are the raw materials soy, rapeseed and palm oil.
During China vegetable oils in high mass in 1. Line for human consumption oilseeds imported form the basis for the biodiesel production in other countries around the world to major parts. The competitive situations are obvious.
The falling oilseed prices have still some more drivers. In the United States, the coming soybean crop is assessed again cheaper. Although the continuous rainfall in the U.S. soybean belt have prevented planned acreage and delayed sowing, but the now upcoming dry and warmer period is promising to yield sufficient water-saturated soils. May be concluded still an above-average U.S. crop.
In the background are still the South American record harvests of soybeans from the early summer, which have a cheap game right now in competition with the US soya sales exposed by the strong dollar.
Although the global supply of rape will be significantly less this year, the rapeseed quotes can not evade the pressure of competition. Canada's canola harvest something was upgraded while recently after thorough field inspections again, remains, but it far back behind the results of previous years.
For the EU, which has agro-meteorological Institute of the EU Commission (Mars) on the 27 07.2015 classified canola yields by almost 11% less to the previous year, but still 3% over the 5 years average. The possible EU rapeseed crop could be at 21.4 million tonnes compared to the previous year with 24.3 million tonnes.
In the face of increasing EU import requirements for rape of a magnitude to 3 million tonnes of the dollar/euro exchange rate against the background of the conflict in Greece is still with crucial. Should drop the euro to dollar parity, could be expected with a rape price increase in the amount of €3.5 per dt.
However, the Mars estimate has only climatic data until 24 July processed. The younger development remained largely unconsidered. Starting next week, a sustained drying phase aims to accelerate the harvesting operations in Europe.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Falling oilseed prices have auschlaggende due to the falling crude oil prices as a result of a current oversupply. A weaker economy in China could put the global economy suffered and further dampen the demand for Röhöl.
Vegetable oils will be in China in 1. Line for human consumption imported. In other parts of the world, vegetable oils form an essential basis for the production of biodiesel. The contention between the raw materials supply a significant part of explanation based on the current price development.
More favourable prospects for the U.S. soybean crops due to the upcoming warmer weather phase complete the driving forces for the formation of prices. Rape remains worldwide, however, scarce, cannot escape but the competition of other oil prices. The coming winter season could slow the falling prices. Necessary imports of canola the EU can be expensive by the dollar/euro exchange rate or cheaper.
The risks have become comprehensive.
You see historical data because you're not logged in or not a ZMP Live+ member. Get your information advantage now!
