Ölsaaten Cockpit, 30.11.2017

Oilseeds: opposing price movements of crude oil and palm oil - stable euro exchange rate The oilseeds are at a considerable point between the leading prices for crude oil and falling palm oil prices.Usually, palm oil prices are based on crude oil prices because they are derived from palm oil   biodiesel   in direct competition   to the mineral diesel stands. However, palm oil stocks are in Malaysiadue to an unexpectedly good harvest increased significantly and the export leaves something to be desired.  This divergent development will not be lasting . There may still be disagreements between the OPEC and other participating states over the reduction of oil production. A continued fall in palm oil prices would only be expected if crude oil prices were to show signs of weakening.For the local oilseeds , the stable euro exchange rate of $ 1.18 per € still plays a decisive role. With a strong purchasing power of € can   The imports of soy are financed inexpensively. Also the necessary rapeseed imports of the EU amounting to 3.5 million tons this year   are cheap to buy. Palm oil exports also benefit.Cheap palm oil in conjunction with a strong € leaves rapeseed prices only very limited scope for development. Only the orientation towards the crude oil prices is one reason for raising rapeseed prices. After all, the recent price decline was again turned into an upswing. The prices in Paris are trying again to reach the well-known line of 380 € / t. Yet it is not so far. For the time being, the upward trend in US soybean meal , which began to emerge from Nov.2017, appears to be consolidating at an elevated level. Background is a completed US soybean harvest at record levels.Recent reports from Brazil assume that the soybean harvest in the spring of 2018 could lead to an above-average result of 108 to 110 million tonnes due to the significantly improved weather conditions with sufficient rainfall . However, the record harvest of 114 million tonnes in the previous year is not expected. Brazil has become the world's largest exporter of soybeans.In Argentina , the weather conditions under La Niña influence look less promising .   The latest estimates amount to 54 to 56 million tonnes. In the previous year it was approx. 57 million t. So far, there is still no meaningful information on the impact of import regulations of the US and the EU in matters of biodiesel .