COCERAL expects lower EU grain harvest in 2024 The umbrella organization of European grain and oilseed traders (COCERAL) expects a significant decline of -5.4 million t for the EU grain harvest in 2024 compared to the previous year. The crucial background for the early forecast is the fact that in important production areas such as France, Germany, Poland and the Baltic States the winter sown areas have been significantly reduced due to the difficult weather conditions. Summer seeds usually have lower yield potential. A possible recovery of the Spanish harvest from the weak previous year is only possible. T out. The estimation method is comparatively simple. The currently available information on the winter sown areas is extrapolated using multi-year average yields. The remaining areas are distributed according to average values for summer sowing and are also multiplied by multi-year yields per hectare. With regard to the result, it is assumed that weather-related fluctuations in both directions are conceivable.The estimated quantity therefore provides an initial rough guide for the coming year. The futures prices on the Paris Stock Exchange, which are already trading with rising prices for September 2024, also provide a supportive addition to the 2024 harvest estimate. The Chicago prices point in the same direction. According to the latest estimates by the EU COM, the previous EU harvest in 2023 will remain at the low level of the previous year - slightly increased. Changes in production and consumption balance each other out. The decisive factor is a reduction in imports , with a focus on corn, by over -24%. But exports are also expected to be down by almost -4%. The EU-27 grain market is expected to become smaller in the long term, both on the production side due to yield reasons and on the consumption side due to animal husbandry reasons. A decline in inventories of -8.4% indicates a tighter supply situation compared to previous years. This results in a higher price level compared to
