African swine fever in China little under control - strong threat potential
At the beginning of Aug.2018, the first cases of African swine fever (ASP) are reported in Shenyang (northern China ). A few weeks later further cases of ASP were discovered at a slaughterhouse 2,000 km to the south .
As of 23 Nov. 2018, officially 73 cases are reported. The distribution focuses on the heavily populated eastern part of China. The western part is due to the desert or steppe-like conditions little inhabited.
Roughly half of the Chinese pig farming takes place in small farms up to 500 animals annual production. New households, for example, in multi-storey skyscrapers with a size of 10,000 or more pigs Annual production is just 15%.
The strongholds of Chinese pig farming are located in the provinces of Sichuan, Henan and Hunan. The production focuses on the northern and western regions with corn and soybean cultivation. In the southeastern provinces with heavy population and environmental hazard of the river courses, pig farming is increasingly being displaced by the state . In particular, the backyard postures with environmentally harmful slurry discharges and lack of hygienic conditions can not meet the state requirements and cease their production.
The short-term strong presence and the rapid widespread dissemination of ASP over more than 2,000 k m is due to the special circumstances in China.
-
First, the high proportion of unprotected backyard postures. This includes the widespread feeding of unheated kitchen waste of any origin.
-
The level of knowledge of pig farmers and veterinarians is low. Many have not even been aware of the term ASP until recently.
-
The in-line closed cold chain requires the transport of live animals from the northern and western surplus regions to the near- consumer slaughterhouses in the south, proving an enormous source of spread for the ASP virus. Approximately 25% of the animals are transported alive over long distances up to several 1,000 km to the slaughterhouse.
-
The high number of migrant workers estimated at 350 million is a major threat to the spread of the ASP virus with the potentially infected food carried along.
Behind the officially reported figures is a high number of unreported cases , partly due to ignorance, partly to avoid state restrictions. Time and space limited restraining bans , transport restrictions from the affected provinces, police control of pig trucks and increased use of state veterinarians at the slaughterhouses to prevent further spread.
Measured against an annual production of more than 700 million pigs , the 600,000 animals officially killed so far are negligibly small (below 0.1%) for the supply situation . On the other hand, it is more critical that more and more sows be slaughtered for fear of the ASP. This development will lead to lower numbers of piglets, pigs for slaughter and pork in the course of 2019 . With little diminished demand, a growing deficit builds up, which should be offset by rising imports .
The long survival time of the resistant ASP virus suggests that prolonged endemic development must be expected under the particular Chinese circumstances.
The second major risk is the undeniable spread of ASP to neighboring countries, including through the importation of meat, as well as tourists and businessmen carrying unwarranted food supplies. First cases have already become known.In East Asia, 60% of pigs in the world are kept and 60% of world pork is traded there. The risk potential is not exactly small.
