End of Aug. 2022: EU-KOM cuts 2022 grain harvest to 272.7 million t In the current Aug. 22 issue, the EU Commission (EU-KOM) estimates the grain harvest at only 272.7 million t. In the previous year, 293.8 million t were harvested and the 5-year average was 285 million t. Domestic use is estimated at 258 million t (previous year 260.5 million t). The decline in consumption is particularly attributable to feed due to declining animal stocks. Exports to third countries are expected to be 51 million t (previous year 47.6 million t), compared to an import volume of 26 million t (previous year 22 million t). Maize imports are estimated at 20 million tons. It is assumed that as a result of the weak harvest, around 3 million more tons will have to be imported to cover demand. The closing stocks fall from 48.4 to 37.6 million t and only last for 53 days (previous year 68 days). The supply figure falls back to 14.5% (previous year 16.5%) ending stock to consumption.Although the supply situation in the EU is tightening, it still remains in the multi-year midfield. The sharp rise in prices is primarily due to the global trade conditions in 2022, from whose sphere of influence the EU cannot escape. The completed barley harvest was able to hold its own compared to the previous year at 50.4 million tons. The lack of precipitation this year came too late to have a negative impact on yields. Contrary to expectations, the wheat harvest reached 133 million tons, a result that is well above previous forecasts. In the previous year, 137.7 million t were harvested under better conditions. In contrast, the EU maize harvest is only classified at 59.3 million t. In the previous year, 72.7 million t were achieved. The corn estimates in some countries are sometimes catastrophic. In a multi-year comparison, a slump of -34% is expected in Hungary and -23% in Romania . -25% is also forecast for the Italian harvest.In Spain and France , a -11% drop in yield is expected. The German corn harvest is said to be -14% worse than in the previous year. The EU-KOM estimate has not had a noticeable impact on grain prices in Paris.
