Updated estimates of EU rapeseed harvest - imports are increasing - but only average prices
The European Commission (EU-COM) and the Confederation of Grain and Oilseeds Traders (COCERAL) have updated their estimates for EU rapeseed crops by the end of the month. The EU-COM puts the harvest result at 19.8 million tonnes and COCERAL comes to 19.4 million tonnes. With different collection methods, both institutions have a reduction of 10 to 11.5% compared to the previous year.
The EU-COM estimates rapeseed consumption in the EU to be 23.7 million tonnes, much lower than in the previous year at 25.6 million tonnes. The decline in demand is partly attributed to the lower use for biodiesel purposes.
To compensate for the shortfall, 4.2 million t rapeseed imports are estimated in advance. The range of suppliers extends from Ukraine to Australia.
In the individual Member States, crops varied due to the growth conditions. High crop losses are found in Germany, Poland and the United Kingdom , each with -15% to -18% compared to the already weak previous year. Even worse, it got Romania with -24% . By contrast, France, the largest production area with -9.5%, still lost its blue eye.
The unusually tight supply situation in the EU rapeseed market should actually be good for high rape prices . However, the price movements on the Paris Stock Exchange have been in the range of between € 365 and € 385 / t for months. The rape price level is capped by the low prices of the market leaders soya and palm oil . Recently, the fallen crude oil prices provide for a low price margin upwards. Today's OPEC conference on 06. Dec.2018 could bring about a change of direction with a decision to reduce subsidies . It will be interesting to see to what extent and how quickly the measures are implemented.
Not least, the tense trade relations between the US and China in the matter of soy still play a role. However, expectations for the results of the US-China talks on the occasion of the G20 summit are limited. First price gains have quickly lost momentum again.
