1.95 €/kg (+3 ct) - already the end of the road? The brief rapid increase in pig prices in March 2022 from €1.20 to €1.95/kg has reached its limits. After weeks of declining slaughter numbers from more than 800,000 to less than 740,000 pigs per week, 800,000 animals with increasing slaughter weights were recently offered again. Pre-registrations were also higher than in the previous weeks. At the last two ISB auctions, 90% of the pigs offered remained unsold. This provides clear indications for the demand side to set a price stop signal in these market conditions. Add to that cold snowy weather, and it wasn't an April 1st hoax. But is that permanent? The snow has almost melted again and the sun is occasionally shining again. The corona restrictions have been relaxed across the board. The gastronomy is looking forward to a high-spending clientele with pent-up demand. And last but not least: the Easter business is on the doorstep. And the barbecue season beckons from afar!However, with massive price increases of between 30 and 50%, the food retail trade is dampening an increasing willingness to consume. What then remains of the surge in demand? Experience has shown that the two Easter weeks are always characterized by a significant drop in demand due to the lack of slaughter days. What remains is the future development of supply: is the month-long phase of declining supply of living animals already over? As a rule, the supply of slaughter pigs will decrease in the forthcoming period for seasonal reasons. The regular cause is the declining insemination success of a warm summer in the previous year with the subsequent low number of piglets. The evaluations of the EU-wide livestock censuses up to and including December of last year also confirm a significant decline in the number of pigs in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of this year in 2022 compared to the 1st quarter. In the current year, the seasonal scarcity should be greater due to the reduced sow stocks, but will be shifted towards the end of the year. However, this effect is only reflected to a limited extent in the EU projections.Basically, the supply of pigs for slaughter will remain scarce in the summer months. It depends on the development of demand which price increase potential can still be mobilized. Corona, ASP and the Ukraine war create additional risks.
